Yesterday we looked in the rear-view mirror. Today we’re looking forward: And there you have it. My current thoughts for this upcoming year. I should note that I’m not an economist, analyst, or an expert on souvlaki demand for that matter. But I enjoy writing… Read More
As per tradition around here, I like to bookend the new year with two posts: a post that revisits my random predictions for the year and a post that talks about what might happen in the year to follow. Today’s post is the former. So let’s… Read More
BlogTO recently asked: Is it a good time or a bad time to buy a condo in Toronto right now? My unsolicited opinion is that if you are someone who would like a home in Toronto, now is an excellent time to buy it. But… Read More
Last week was “forum week” in Toronto. (That is, it was the Toronto Real Estate Forum.) And as is the case every year, Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC, opened up the event with his usual macro view of the world. For those of… Read More
Tech analyst Benedict Evans — who has 175,000 subscribers to his weekly newsletter — has just published his big annual presentation about “what matters in tech?” This year’s is called “The New Gatekeepers.” And as is normally the case, he explores a number of macro… Read More
The central bank tightening and interest rate hikes that we saw last year will come to an end in the first quarter of 2023 as inflation gets under control. This will ultimately lead to a recession but my sense is that it will be more… Read More
Earlier this month, Howard Marks published a memo called “Sea Change“, where he argued, among other things, that it is “nearly impossible to overstate the influence of declining [interest] rates over the last four decades.” In fact, he goes on to say that he would… Read More
Levered assets, such as real estate, tend to have prices that are correlated with interest rates. Lower rates usually translate into higher asset prices. We are living through this kind of environment right now. And so it is generally valuable to have a view on… Read More
Real estate is a highly levered asset class, which means that pricing is sensitive to interest rate changes. Larry Summers recently published a post on his blog where he argued that the Fed (US) is being far too complacent about their ability to respond effectively… Read More
This morning, I am looking at the following chart of average home prices in the Greater Toronto Area: It’s from this Globe and Mail article. These are staggering numbers. The average price of a detached home in the suburbs (905 area code) increased 21% year-over-year.… Read More
BRANDON DONNELLY 