Real estate can be an abstract concept. If you're a capital allocator, it might be a line item in one of your spreadsheets. Or, if you're a developer primarily focused on zoning and entitlements, you might think in terms of gross floor area. How much density do I have, and what is it going to be worth?

This is not to disparage any one component or participant within the development supply chain; it is simply to say that development is long and complicated, participants will naturally specialize, and everyone will have a lens through which they see things.

But at the end of the day, these activities ultimately come back to fundamentals: the real estate needs to house people and things, and do something. Gross floor area has value on a spreadsheet because it can be turned into something. And it is ultimately that something that determines how much it is worth.

If you're a developer selling entitled land, your direct customer is the next developer, the one who will ultimately build out the site. Then, that developer's customers are the people who will ultimately buy, rent, and occupy the space. And in some cases, those customers will also have their own customers, if, for instance, they choose to buy a space and then rent it out to somebody else.

So there are layers to this. But regardless of where you might sit within the chain, I think it's always helpful to focus on the customer, or customers. It's harder to be wrong with your assumptions if you drill all the way down and consider the end use cases.

Cover photo by Israel Andrade

We talk a lot around here about the surprising difficulty of building small-scale apartment buildings. Here's a post from earlier this year where I outlined a working list of policies, codes, and approaches that would need to change in order to unlock more of this housing type.

But my list was just that — a list — and the reality is that each individual item can be shockingly complex. To that end, here's a recent study, published by the Neptis Foundation, called "Ontario Building Code Missing Middle Study: Bridging the gap between houses and high-rises."

The authors are Conrad Speckert of Semibold Solutions (who has appeared on this blog in the past) and Jack Keays of Vortex Fire Consulting, and I encourage you to download a free copy. I haven't gone through it yet, but I will, because we are actively working on projects at this exact scale.

Enjoy the weekend.

Cover photo by Danish Prakash

Urbanation just released its Q2 2026 new condominium sales report for the GTHA (Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area). New condominium apartment sales posted their first year-over-year gain since 2023, with 702 home sales, representing a 52% annual increase. Anecdotally, I will also say that those of us in the industry can feel these winds changing.

These figures are still well below the 10-year average, but the market is starting to do what it needs to do, and what the new (and cumbersome) HST rebate is intended to do. Standing inventory is getting sold, and I suspect the second half of this year will look even stronger as the industry figures out how to actually paper and administer this rebate.

Importantly, the rebate is not helping pre-construction sales (though that's just one factor). Q2 saw just 50 sales. Basically, nothing. This makes sense because the new rebate requires the purchase agreement to be signed before March 31, 2027. That's not enough time for most pre-sale programs, but it does create a sense of urgency around standing inventory.

So, what we are seeing today is a new condominium market that has refound price discovery and is starting to clear out already-built standing inventory, but one that is not producing a meaningful amount of new housing starts. As Urbanation says in its release, "condo supply is set to see its largest ever decline in the coming years."

Cover photo by Narciso Arellano

Chart from Urbanation