New York City is the most urban city in America, with the largest subway network by far, and yet, even here, ridership levels have yet to recover to their pre-pandemic levels. Recent data shows subway ridership hovering between 70% and 80% of 2019 levels, and the MTA anticipates that it will remain "at about that level through 2029."

The obvious explanation is that office workers continue to work from home on occasion, and that's certainly a significant part of the story here. But it doesn't appear to be the entire story.

For example, looking at station ridership recovery across the city, there visually appears to be a geographic correlation with areas in Upper Manhattan, the Bronx, and the outer boroughs in general not recovering to the same extent as Manhattan.

In the early days of the pandemic, ridership levels were mostly correlated with median household incomes. Ridership remained higher in the outer boroughs, while residents in wealthier neighbourhoods simply worked from home. Since then, that correlation has weakened and the geography has inverted.

This suggests to me that in addition to WFH, there has also been a structural mobility shift for many households. We know that car registrations in NYC spiked during the pandemic, and presumably that means some new mobility habits were formed.

Cover photo by Igor Wang on Unsplash

Chart from Subway Recovery Tracker

This week, May 25 to 29, is Toronto Tech Week. If you'd like to check out the event calendar, click here.

What's interesting about how the week is structured is that it's not a traditional conference. It's more of a decentralized, open platform where anyone can join or host an in-person event, as long as it serves the shared goal of showcasing Toronto as a city of builders. It feels very tech-appropriate, and it means you can tailor the week to your interests.

I'm laser-focused on my own building right now (otherwise I'd be all over the it), but I am enjoying following it online and seeing the energy that it brings to our city. Toronto is one of the greatest cities in the world, and there's no shortage of talented entrepreneurs working to build the future right here.

What we do need to be better at, though, is celebrating the people taking risks and providing them with the capital and resources to make wild and crazy bets. But I'm sure that's all happening right now at Tech Week. Go Toronto!

Because of how long it takes to build a building, real estate markets almost always overbuild at the top, and underbuild at the bottom (see yesterday's post about the pig in the python). In a theoretically perfect economic model, supply would adapt instantly to changes in demand. But in the real world of development, this adaptation can take 5 to 10 years.

At the same time, it's not just about the quantity of real estate being delivered at any given time; it's also a question of what kind of real estate. We talk a lot around here about this moment in time being a healthy reset for Toronto's housing market (and other markets). But what exactly are we resetting? I find it helpful to think of it in terms of three prongs.

First, there's customer type. Who will be the buyers and tenants during the next cycle and what will they be looking for? For instance, when it comes to pre-construction condominiums, to what extent will individual investors factor in like they did during the last cycle? Many think they will play a much smaller role.

Second, there's the cost structure. The cost of building is changing, and hopefully we will see continued efforts to make housing more cost-effective to deliver. And third, there's a question of building typology. As the demand profile changes and as costs evolve, it is naturally going to have an impact on the kind of buildings that get built.

My gut is that we will see more housing geared toward end-users in medium-density builds, but only time will tell.

Cover photo by Lennon Kong on Unsplash