The Missing Middle Initiative just released its latest Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe Housing Report Card. If you'd like to download a copy and see the generally abysmal grades, there's a link at the bottom of this page. But here are the high-level findings (based on Q4-2025 data):
Housing starts are down 34% year-over-year across the 34 municipalities covered in the report.
Condominium starts, in particular, are down over 50% year-over-year.
Pre-construction sales, which are a precursor to housing starts, are down 89% for condominiums and 58% for ground-oriented houses.
The only exception to the above is purpose-built rental starts, which increased 39% year-over-year. But this increase doesn't come close to offsetting the declines seen in both condominiums and low-rise housing.
Once again, we are reminded of the looming housing shortage that, I think, could be felt as soon as next year. New construction is inherently slow to respond to market changes, and, as of right now, the ship is clearly headed toward almost no new supply. For that to change, we will almost certainly need to see pre-construction sales return.
Cover photo by Dmitry Gerasimenko on Unsplash
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published a comprehensive report on the nexus between AI and energy consumption. I would encourage you all to give it a read, or, you know, use AI to summarize it for you. It represents our reality today.
The largest tech companies in the world spent over US$400 billion on data centres in 2025, and this number is expected to jump by 75% in 2026! The total capital expenditure of just five tech companies is right now larger than the entire global investment in oil and natural gas production.
This is the new fuel for the world economy, and we're going to need to figure out how to supply enough energy.
According to the report, an individual server rack within an advanced data centre might only be the size of a refrigerator. But by 2027, it is not inconceivable that it could have a peak power demand equivalent to that of 65 households.
The good news is that much of this demand is being met by renewables. Renewables are the fastest-growing source of electricity for data centres. The report estimates total generating capacity increasing at an average of 22% per year between 2024 and 2030, which will meet nearly 50% of the growth in data centre demand.
If you'd like to download a copy of the full report, go here.
Cover photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash
The rules of the game are being rewritten
Finding the silver linings in Toronto’s housing market reset
As a developer, or other market participant, it's easy to be pessimistic about the current housing market in Toronto. It's a challenge to make new projects work. That's suboptimal from a business and city-building standpoint, and for Type A personalities who thrive on accomplishment. But today, let's look at some of the positives and opportunities that are already here or are likely to happen going forward.
If you're a developer who has been doing the same thing for decades, now is the opportunity to rethink your model and innovate. Why? Because the old model isn't working, and who knows if it ever will again when the fun times return.
Already, we are seeing a renewed focus on end-user buyers and renters. This is healthy for the market. It signals a return to fundamentals and a deeper focus on our customers. What kind of homes do people actually want to live in?
At the same time, if you're in need of a home, now is an excellent time to buy or rent. Similarly, for developers, now is an excellent time to buy sites, provided you've found a project that works or you have the balance sheet to be patient.
Modular construction and mass timber are getting a lot more airtime. They aren't a silver bullet in this market, but these things take time and it's positive that more developers and builders are exploring and testing out their options.
Crisis forces the hand of government. Already, we have seen a new HST rebate, cuts to development charges, and other helpful measures. I also think cities are more receptive to negotiation. If you have a wild and crazy idea that just might work, go talk to them!
As incumbents struggle with their legacy assets and deals, the market is creating more space for new entrants and fresh ideas. I have no doubt that we will see a new generation of developers and entrepreneurs emerge during the next cycle.
Never let a good crisis go to waste, as they say.
Would you add anything to this list?
Cover photo by Lennon Kong on Unsplash