I recently came across this tweet by Patrick Collison, the CEO of Stripe, where he argues that the YIMBY movement "employs an inadvertently dishonest sleight-of-hand" when it promises "Paris-scale density" only to ultimately deliver something quite different in cities.
In the post, he shares a fairly banal mid-rise development that looks nothing like Paris, and then says that if we're talking about Paris-style building, he'd be all for it, and likely voters would be too. His point seems to be that if only we made developments more beautiful, fewer people would oppose them.
I had to read the tweet a few times to make sure I was understanding it correctly because the "Paris-scale density" language was throwing me off. Paris is not a medium-density city. It's a high-density city and generally considered to be the highest-density city in Europe. Is this the Paris promise?
I don't actually think most people want Paris; they want a city that looks like Paris, and that's because they ignore most of its urban ingredients and only focus on the two most obvious things: (1) its outward architectural expressions and (2) its modest building heights.
Paris-scale density is single-stair buildings with minimal setbacks and stepbacks, dark light wells, tiny 130-square-foot studios in the penthouse, no parking minimums, and area population densities that can exceed 50,000 people per km2. Is this what most voters want, provided they look pretty?
For the purposes of this post, let's just run with the argument that urban environments people broadly feel are beautiful would elicit less NIMBY opposition. Just build Paris-like buildings. Unfortunately, I also don't think the answer is as simple as this.
As Sam Deutsch of Better Cities points out, this runs counter to NIMBY history. Let's not forget that the Paris everyone visits today was vehemently opposed during the time of its initial development and that the city's most iconic structure was called a hateful column of bolted sheet metal, among other things.
Beautiful buildings and great places are, of course, fundamental to cities. But even then, expect turbulence along the way.
Cover photo by Deniz Bireroglu on Unsplash
In April of 2025, a bill was introduced in Washington, DC, called the One Front Door Amendment Act. It aims to do what many cities are now working on or considering, which is to allow single-stair/egress buildings up to six storeys. This, as most of you know, is very common throughout the world. It's a key ingredient in fine-grained infill housing, but it is generally not permissible in Canada and the US above certain build heights. In DC, I understand the current limit is 3 storeys.
The bill had its first Council reading last month and it passed unanimously (13-0). There is the small problem of there being no funding to enact the bill (it was passed "subject to appropriations'), but I call that a minor detail. The deadline for the Department of Buildings to issue new rules is July 1, 2027, which means this is how long they have to find the money and then do the technical work required to allow these new single-stair buildings. It's not done yet, but from the outside, it appears to be progressing.
Now the obvious question becomes: what the hell is taking Toronto so long? What is our deadline for implementation? As far as I know, there isn't one. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) We now permit 6-storey apartments along all "Major Streets" in the city — from a planning perspective, at least — except the economics do not work at scale, and the requirement for two exit stairs remains one of the major obstacles. Enough with the navel-gazing. Let's get building, Toronto!
On March 25, 2026, the Ontario government announced that it would be expanding the HST rebate to lower the cost of new homes. Here's the full media briefing PDF. Since then, every developer, lawyer, and sales team in the city has been scrambling to figure it all out and incorporate it into their projects. This includes us.
Today on the blog, I thought it might be useful to do the following: (1) explain how I understand the proposed rebate program works (or will work, to be exact), (2) talk about how I'm seeing the industry respond to the announcement (naturally, there's been some criticism), and (3) shamelessly plug one of our HST rebate-eligible homes at Junction House.
First, I need to caveat this post by saying that, oh boy, I'm not an accountant or lawyer, and that this proposal is still subject to regulatory enactment. So, I could be wrong about something, the proposal might not get passed, or maybe something outrageous happens, potentially precipitated by a post on Truth Social. Do your own research. Talk to your advisors. Having said all this, the industry fully expects this to pass, and developers are already relying on the fact that it will, perhaps by this summer.
Second, it's helpful to understand how new homes are typically priced in the market and how the existing new home HST rebate works. Developers in the Toronto market typically price their homes inclusive of HST, but net of the current new home HST rebate. As it stands today, this rebate caps out at $24,000, translating to an effective HST rate that is lower than the current rate of 13%, depending on the price of the home.
Let me explain:
Price on the purchase agreement: $925,000 (again, this is inclusive of HST but net of the $24k rebate)
I recently came across this tweet by Patrick Collison, the CEO of Stripe, where he argues that the YIMBY movement "employs an inadvertently dishonest sleight-of-hand" when it promises "Paris-scale density" only to ultimately deliver something quite different in cities.
In the post, he shares a fairly banal mid-rise development that looks nothing like Paris, and then says that if we're talking about Paris-style building, he'd be all for it, and likely voters would be too. His point seems to be that if only we made developments more beautiful, fewer people would oppose them.
I had to read the tweet a few times to make sure I was understanding it correctly because the "Paris-scale density" language was throwing me off. Paris is not a medium-density city. It's a high-density city and generally considered to be the highest-density city in Europe. Is this the Paris promise?
I don't actually think most people want Paris; they want a city that looks like Paris, and that's because they ignore most of its urban ingredients and only focus on the two most obvious things: (1) its outward architectural expressions and (2) its modest building heights.
Paris-scale density is single-stair buildings with minimal setbacks and stepbacks, dark light wells, tiny 130-square-foot studios in the penthouse, no parking minimums, and area population densities that can exceed 50,000 people per km2. Is this what most voters want, provided they look pretty?
For the purposes of this post, let's just run with the argument that urban environments people broadly feel are beautiful would elicit less NIMBY opposition. Just build Paris-like buildings. Unfortunately, I also don't think the answer is as simple as this.
As Sam Deutsch of Better Cities points out, this runs counter to NIMBY history. Let's not forget that the Paris everyone visits today was vehemently opposed during the time of its initial development and that the city's most iconic structure was called a hateful column of bolted sheet metal, among other things.
Beautiful buildings and great places are, of course, fundamental to cities. But even then, expect turbulence along the way.
Cover photo by Deniz Bireroglu on Unsplash
In April of 2025, a bill was introduced in Washington, DC, called the One Front Door Amendment Act. It aims to do what many cities are now working on or considering, which is to allow single-stair/egress buildings up to six storeys. This, as most of you know, is very common throughout the world. It's a key ingredient in fine-grained infill housing, but it is generally not permissible in Canada and the US above certain build heights. In DC, I understand the current limit is 3 storeys.
The bill had its first Council reading last month and it passed unanimously (13-0). There is the small problem of there being no funding to enact the bill (it was passed "subject to appropriations'), but I call that a minor detail. The deadline for the Department of Buildings to issue new rules is July 1, 2027, which means this is how long they have to find the money and then do the technical work required to allow these new single-stair buildings. It's not done yet, but from the outside, it appears to be progressing.
Now the obvious question becomes: what the hell is taking Toronto so long? What is our deadline for implementation? As far as I know, there isn't one. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) We now permit 6-storey apartments along all "Major Streets" in the city — from a planning perspective, at least — except the economics do not work at scale, and the requirement for two exit stairs remains one of the major obstacles. Enough with the navel-gazing. Let's get building, Toronto!
On March 25, 2026, the Ontario government announced that it would be expanding the HST rebate to lower the cost of new homes. Here's the full media briefing PDF. Since then, every developer, lawyer, and sales team in the city has been scrambling to figure it all out and incorporate it into their projects. This includes us.
Today on the blog, I thought it might be useful to do the following: (1) explain how I understand the proposed rebate program works (or will work, to be exact), (2) talk about how I'm seeing the industry respond to the announcement (naturally, there's been some criticism), and (3) shamelessly plug one of our HST rebate-eligible homes at Junction House.
First, I need to caveat this post by saying that, oh boy, I'm not an accountant or lawyer, and that this proposal is still subject to regulatory enactment. So, I could be wrong about something, the proposal might not get passed, or maybe something outrageous happens, potentially precipitated by a post on Truth Social. Do your own research. Talk to your advisors. Having said all this, the industry fully expects this to pass, and developers are already relying on the fact that it will, perhaps by this summer.
Second, it's helpful to understand how new homes are typically priced in the market and how the existing new home HST rebate works. Developers in the Toronto market typically price their homes inclusive of HST, but net of the current new home HST rebate. As it stands today, this rebate caps out at $24,000, translating to an effective HST rate that is lower than the current rate of 13%, depending on the price of the home.
Let me explain:
Price on the purchase agreement: $925,000 (again, this is inclusive of HST but net of the $24k rebate)
Cover photo by Andy Feliciotti on Unsplash
Base price excluding any HST = ($925,000 + $24,000) / 1.13 = $839,823.01
HST payable to government = $925,000 - $839,823.01 = $85,176.99
Effective HST rate = $85,176.99 / $839,823.01 = 10.1% (which is less than 13% because of the $24k rebate)
In practice, the way this typically works is that the buyer, who is assumed to qualify for the rebate, assigns it to the developer as part of the closing process. The developer receives the benefit of this rebate, and so they only need to remit the remaining 10.1% to the government. Importantly, this particular rebate is meant for people intending to move into the new home. If they are not doing this, then a separate rebate process applies.
Now, here's what's proposed for the new HST program, which is available only for purchases made between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027, and applicable to homes used as a primary place of residence or as a residential rental property:
Up to $1,000,000: Full 13% HST rebate (up to $130,000).
$1,000,001 to $1,500,000: Flat maximum rebate of $130,000.
$1,500,001 to $1,850,000: The rebate phases down proportionally from $130,000 to $24,000.
Over $1,850,000: The rebate is capped at the standard Ontario maximum of $24,000 (same as today).
Given that most developers have been pricing inclusive of HST, but net of the current rebate, there's some math involved to figure out what purchasers will ultimately be paying for a new home bought over the next 12 months. But for homes under $1,850,000, the answer is less than before! (More on this below.)
Another important question is how this will work given that the eligibility time period has started, but the proposal hasn't passed and isn't in force yet. The way we are thinking about it is generally in the following two ways.
If a purchaser is buying a new home and closing on it today, they will have to pay the HST as has been customary in the past, but then the expectation is that, once the proposal is enacted, the purchaser will get it refunded (as per the above). Going back to our $925k example above, the $85k would still get paid up front, and then remitted to the government, but then the purchaser would get it back, bringing their net price down to $839k.
If a purchaser is buying a new home today and expecting to close on it after the proposal is enacted, one reasonable assumption is that the proper protocols will be in place such that the purchaser isn't paying the HST upfront only to get it back later. In our example, they would instead be paying the $839k up front. Developers are contracting for this scenario today, but how exactly the paperwork will flow in the future remains TBD.
One of the unexpected benefits of this proposal, at least for me, is that it has me thinking more in terms of net prices, excluding any HST. And I like this better. I think it's a more transparent way to communicate with purchasers. We as an industry should use this moment as an opportunity to move toward this practice.
In fact, what I would like to be able to do is enumerate the following to buyers: "Here is the price of your new home. Now let's add the HST, development charges, education development charges, parkland dedication fees, community benefit charges, and so on." Because I think, only then, would it become clear to the general public how much we tax new housing.
Now let's talk more broadly about how the market is responding to this proposal.
One of the criticisms of this proposal is that it will only serve to increase developer margins. And indeed, this proposal does represent a cost reduction in development pro formas. But what I will say is that every single developer that I have spoken to is using this as an opportunity to reduce their pricing and pass along the savings (typically 1:1) to new home buyers. The reality is that the market is too soft to do anything else.
This is a perfect example of the cost-plus pricing model that we often talk about on this blog. Developers typically price based on their costs. Now that costs have come down (because of this proposal), they are lowering their prices accordingly. And those who do not follow suit will no longer be competitive in the market.
The market froze out in recent years because, suddenly, the price people were willing to pay for new homes was less than developers' costs. The floor had been reached. But now the floor has been lowered in a direct effort to clear out inventory and reset the market. It's a good time to be a new home buyer, and I have already started to feel a change in sentiment across the industry.
On that note, I would like to turn your attention to a penthouse suite at Junction House that we just listed for sale. It's a two-bedroom and two-bath home and, yes, it's HST rebate-eligible! It's one of my favourite suites in the building. If you'd like to learn more, reach out to Paul Johnston at Unique Urban Homes (paul@pauljohnston.com).
Cover photo by Andy Feliciotti on Unsplash
Base price excluding any HST = ($925,000 + $24,000) / 1.13 = $839,823.01
HST payable to government = $925,000 - $839,823.01 = $85,176.99
Effective HST rate = $85,176.99 / $839,823.01 = 10.1% (which is less than 13% because of the $24k rebate)
In practice, the way this typically works is that the buyer, who is assumed to qualify for the rebate, assigns it to the developer as part of the closing process. The developer receives the benefit of this rebate, and so they only need to remit the remaining 10.1% to the government. Importantly, this particular rebate is meant for people intending to move into the new home. If they are not doing this, then a separate rebate process applies.
Now, here's what's proposed for the new HST program, which is available only for purchases made between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027, and applicable to homes used as a primary place of residence or as a residential rental property:
Up to $1,000,000: Full 13% HST rebate (up to $130,000).
$1,000,001 to $1,500,000: Flat maximum rebate of $130,000.
$1,500,001 to $1,850,000: The rebate phases down proportionally from $130,000 to $24,000.
Over $1,850,000: The rebate is capped at the standard Ontario maximum of $24,000 (same as today).
Given that most developers have been pricing inclusive of HST, but net of the current rebate, there's some math involved to figure out what purchasers will ultimately be paying for a new home bought over the next 12 months. But for homes under $1,850,000, the answer is less than before! (More on this below.)
Another important question is how this will work given that the eligibility time period has started, but the proposal hasn't passed and isn't in force yet. The way we are thinking about it is generally in the following two ways.
If a purchaser is buying a new home and closing on it today, they will have to pay the HST as has been customary in the past, but then the expectation is that, once the proposal is enacted, the purchaser will get it refunded (as per the above). Going back to our $925k example above, the $85k would still get paid up front, and then remitted to the government, but then the purchaser would get it back, bringing their net price down to $839k.
If a purchaser is buying a new home today and expecting to close on it after the proposal is enacted, one reasonable assumption is that the proper protocols will be in place such that the purchaser isn't paying the HST upfront only to get it back later. In our example, they would instead be paying the $839k up front. Developers are contracting for this scenario today, but how exactly the paperwork will flow in the future remains TBD.
One of the unexpected benefits of this proposal, at least for me, is that it has me thinking more in terms of net prices, excluding any HST. And I like this better. I think it's a more transparent way to communicate with purchasers. We as an industry should use this moment as an opportunity to move toward this practice.
In fact, what I would like to be able to do is enumerate the following to buyers: "Here is the price of your new home. Now let's add the HST, development charges, education development charges, parkland dedication fees, community benefit charges, and so on." Because I think, only then, would it become clear to the general public how much we tax new housing.
Now let's talk more broadly about how the market is responding to this proposal.
One of the criticisms of this proposal is that it will only serve to increase developer margins. And indeed, this proposal does represent a cost reduction in development pro formas. But what I will say is that every single developer that I have spoken to is using this as an opportunity to reduce their pricing and pass along the savings (typically 1:1) to new home buyers. The reality is that the market is too soft to do anything else.
This is a perfect example of the cost-plus pricing model that we often talk about on this blog. Developers typically price based on their costs. Now that costs have come down (because of this proposal), they are lowering their prices accordingly. And those who do not follow suit will no longer be competitive in the market.
The market froze out in recent years because, suddenly, the price people were willing to pay for new homes was less than developers' costs. The floor had been reached. But now the floor has been lowered in a direct effort to clear out inventory and reset the market. It's a good time to be a new home buyer, and I have already started to feel a change in sentiment across the industry.
On that note, I would like to turn your attention to a penthouse suite at Junction House that we just listed for sale. It's a two-bedroom and two-bath home and, yes, it's HST rebate-eligible! It's one of my favourite suites in the building. If you'd like to learn more, reach out to Paul Johnston at Unique Urban Homes (paul@pauljohnston.com).
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