Urbanation is forecasting that approximately 27,000 condominium suites will finish construction and be ready for occupancy this year in the Greater Toronto Area. This is some sort of a record, and is naturally the result of record pre-construction sales over the last cycle.

This number is going to come down given that construction starts are declining, but before that, these suites will need to get absorbed into the market. And that's why I think that one of the biggest risks for our industry this year is going to be closing risk.

In other words, you've got the pre-sales, but will the purchasers actually show up and close on their homes?

It is for this exact reason that most/all construction lenders want to see pre-construction purchasers pay at least 10% in deposits before they'll advance their loan. It is also why the most risk-averse developers won't start construction until they have even more than 10% sitting in trust. The more hard money a purchaser has paid, the more likely they are to close.

It can be easy to forget this when the market is on fire and you're more preoccupied with holding back inventory because you think that sale prices will be higher in the future. But it's prudent to remember these times. They are a naturally occurring part of real estate cycles.

The most risk adverse execution strategies will likely leave some money on the table in the best of times. You won't be profit maximizing. However, they'll leave you more protected in the worst of times. That's how risk and reward work.