Howard Chai recently reported in the Globe and Mail on the number of "distressed" commercial real estate transactions that Canada has seen over the last few years:
2023: 119 transactions totalling $767 million
2024: 191 transactions totalling more than $1.5 billion
2025: 252 transactions totalling more than $1.42 billion
These numbers are from Altus Group and they, importantly, only include sales involving a court proceeding. They do not include properties sold at a loss because of financial distress or any other such scenarios. This means that the actual amount of "distress" in the market is certainly greater. We're all just holding on.
The hardest-hit asset class is, not surprisingly, development land. This makes sense because the value of development land is mostly binary right now. Either you can do something productive with it (in which case there's value) or you can't, and it's illiquid. Land is risky. It just doesn't seem that way when the market is hot.
The theme of the article is that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Jeremiah Shamess of Colliers is cited as saying he thinks we will see the "emergence of a bottom" late this year or early into 2027. He must have read my annual predictions post in January, where I argued the same.
These periods of time always suck for everyone involved. But as is always the case in markets, the faster we deal with the pain, the faster we'll get to the other side. Failure is an essential part of capitalism. As many have said: "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell."
Cover photo by Damian Kravchuk on Unsplash
Regular readers of this blog might remember that last "summer" (it was still chilly), I biked for brain health here in Toronto.
I rode 75 km, raised $3,800, and helped Multiplex Construction Canada raise over $14,000, with 100% of these donations going directly to the Baycrest Foundation to fund work related to dementia, Alzheimer's, and other brain-related illnesses.
This summer I'll be riding again on Sunday, May 31, 2026, except with a few changes:
They've moved the starting location to the Aga Khan Museum (architecture by the Pritzker Prize-winning Japanese architect Fumihiko Maki).
They've increased the longest circuit to 90 km.
We've created our own Globizen team! If we're feeling really ambitious, maybe we'll even create our own cycling bibs. (This strikes me as a low probability scenario.)
If you're up for it, I would encourage you to join our team and ride for brain health. Alternatively, you can always just participate with your wallet.
Full disclosure caveat: Bianca and I are expecting our first child (a girl) in June. This ride is closeish to the due date, creating at a minimum three possible scenarios for the day:
Scenario one is that she is not yet born on May 31 and I ride as one would expect.
Scenario two is that she is born early, and I then spend this Sunday morning at home in some kind of sleep-deprived state. (Or, the "vibe" is that I should probably stay home.)
It seems like just yesterday that people were protesting Uber for disrupting the traditional taxi business. Now the question has become: are AVs about to disrupt Uber?
Over the last six months, Uber's stock price has declined nearly 19%. At the time of writing this post, its market cap is around $155 billion, compared to Waymo's private market valuation of $126 billion (though I'm sure many would argue this is a wee bit high).
The market seems to think that self-driving cars are a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla. If this is true, what role will Uber play?
Uber has naturally tried to assuage concerns. Alongside their Q4 2025 earnings, they
Howard Chai recently reported in the Globe and Mail on the number of "distressed" commercial real estate transactions that Canada has seen over the last few years:
2023: 119 transactions totalling $767 million
2024: 191 transactions totalling more than $1.5 billion
2025: 252 transactions totalling more than $1.42 billion
These numbers are from Altus Group and they, importantly, only include sales involving a court proceeding. They do not include properties sold at a loss because of financial distress or any other such scenarios. This means that the actual amount of "distress" in the market is certainly greater. We're all just holding on.
The hardest-hit asset class is, not surprisingly, development land. This makes sense because the value of development land is mostly binary right now. Either you can do something productive with it (in which case there's value) or you can't, and it's illiquid. Land is risky. It just doesn't seem that way when the market is hot.
The theme of the article is that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Jeremiah Shamess of Colliers is cited as saying he thinks we will see the "emergence of a bottom" late this year or early into 2027. He must have read my annual predictions post in January, where I argued the same.
These periods of time always suck for everyone involved. But as is always the case in markets, the faster we deal with the pain, the faster we'll get to the other side. Failure is an essential part of capitalism. As many have said: "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell."
Cover photo by Damian Kravchuk on Unsplash
Regular readers of this blog might remember that last "summer" (it was still chilly), I biked for brain health here in Toronto.
I rode 75 km, raised $3,800, and helped Multiplex Construction Canada raise over $14,000, with 100% of these donations going directly to the Baycrest Foundation to fund work related to dementia, Alzheimer's, and other brain-related illnesses.
This summer I'll be riding again on Sunday, May 31, 2026, except with a few changes:
They've moved the starting location to the Aga Khan Museum (architecture by the Pritzker Prize-winning Japanese architect Fumihiko Maki).
They've increased the longest circuit to 90 km.
We've created our own Globizen team! If we're feeling really ambitious, maybe we'll even create our own cycling bibs. (This strikes me as a low probability scenario.)
If you're up for it, I would encourage you to join our team and ride for brain health. Alternatively, you can always just participate with your wallet.
Full disclosure caveat: Bianca and I are expecting our first child (a girl) in June. This ride is closeish to the due date, creating at a minimum three possible scenarios for the day:
Scenario one is that she is not yet born on May 31 and I ride as one would expect.
Scenario two is that she is born early, and I then spend this Sunday morning at home in some kind of sleep-deprived state. (Or, the "vibe" is that I should probably stay home.)
It seems like just yesterday that people were protesting Uber for disrupting the traditional taxi business. Now the question has become: are AVs about to disrupt Uber?
Over the last six months, Uber's stock price has declined nearly 19%. At the time of writing this post, its market cap is around $155 billion, compared to Waymo's private market valuation of $126 billion (though I'm sure many would argue this is a wee bit high).
The market seems to think that self-driving cars are a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla. If this is true, what role will Uber play?
Uber has naturally tried to assuage concerns. Alongside their Q4 2025 earnings, they
And I suppose scenario three is that I don't finish the ride and I end up at the hospital in head-to-toe lycra, clicking and clacking around in my cycling shoes.
Scenarios one and two feel more optimal, in my humble opinion.
Cover photo: Len Abelman (Principal at WZMH Architects) and me completing the Bike for Brain Health end-of-summer follow-up ride in September 2025.
AVs will change how trips are supplied, but not how demand is aggregated. History suggests that over time as supply fragments and technology commoditizes, the platform that can bring the highest utilization to assets, and superior reliability to customers, will capture a large share of value. That is the role Uber is set up to play.
One of the arguments for this is that rideshare demand is highly variable throughout a week. A typical Monday can be less than half of a Saturday night, and daily troughs can decline to something like 5% of peaks.
So, if you try and service this demand variability with only AVs, you're going to have a lot of underutilized vehicles during off-peak times. This makes sense to me right now, but I'm not certain it will persist or always matter as the space evolves.
When Uber sold its AV division in 2020, I understood why (to try and reach profitability), but it always felt a little unsettling to me. AVs were very clearly the future — are you sure you want to sell this off?
Now I suspect they'll have to re-enter in a meaningful way. They're going to need to do it as long as the market continues to believe the current narrative.
I use Uber on a regular basis, but I already have the Waymo app on my phone (I downloaded it on a long layover in SFO where I contemplated a joy ride). As soon as rides become available in Toronto at reasonable prices, I wouldn't think twice about switching.
Cover photo by clement proust on Unsplash
Stock graph from the WSJ
Demand chart from Uber Q4 2025 Earnings — Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight
And I suppose scenario three is that I don't finish the ride and I end up at the hospital in head-to-toe lycra, clicking and clacking around in my cycling shoes.
Scenarios one and two feel more optimal, in my humble opinion.
Cover photo: Len Abelman (Principal at WZMH Architects) and me completing the Bike for Brain Health end-of-summer follow-up ride in September 2025.
AVs will change how trips are supplied, but not how demand is aggregated. History suggests that over time as supply fragments and technology commoditizes, the platform that can bring the highest utilization to assets, and superior reliability to customers, will capture a large share of value. That is the role Uber is set up to play.
One of the arguments for this is that rideshare demand is highly variable throughout a week. A typical Monday can be less than half of a Saturday night, and daily troughs can decline to something like 5% of peaks.
So, if you try and service this demand variability with only AVs, you're going to have a lot of underutilized vehicles during off-peak times. This makes sense to me right now, but I'm not certain it will persist or always matter as the space evolves.
When Uber sold its AV division in 2020, I understood why (to try and reach profitability), but it always felt a little unsettling to me. AVs were very clearly the future — are you sure you want to sell this off?
Now I suspect they'll have to re-enter in a meaningful way. They're going to need to do it as long as the market continues to believe the current narrative.
I use Uber on a regular basis, but I already have the Waymo app on my phone (I downloaded it on a long layover in SFO where I contemplated a joy ride). As soon as rides become available in Toronto at reasonable prices, I wouldn't think twice about switching.
Cover photo by clement proust on Unsplash
Stock graph from the WSJ
Demand chart from Uber Q4 2025 Earnings — Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight
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