Dave Leblanc ("The Architourist") just published this article in the Globe and Mail talking about the four Toronto building projects that he'll be watching in 2026. And number one on his list is none other than One Delisle (though maybe it's intended to be in no particular order):
Announced back in 2017, this 16-sided, 47-storey, circular tower was penned by Jeanne Gang, an award-winning Chicago-based architect and educator. Interestingly, while Ms. Gang holds the record of “tallest building in the world designed by a woman,” the 101-floor/363 metres-high St. Regis Chicago (hotel and residences), she is better known as a socially responsible designer sensitive to the pedestrian realm and for her love of biophilic design, which connects end-users to nature.
When I interviewed Ms. Gang back in 2021, I asked if One Delisle had been inspired by a pine cone or an artichoke. “Both an artichoke and a pine cone – and a sunflower for that matter – there’s a spiralling organization of the seeds, the petals,” she said. “It’s nature solving a packing problem.”
With the people-packing (occupancy) set for this year or next, I visited the site last week. And, unlike some projects, it holds true to Ms. Gang’s original sketch. And the way the base is organized to project west onto Delisle Avenue means Janet Rosenberg & Studio’s landscaping will make a real impact.
Dave is right to point out the lag between sales and shovels. All four of the projects on his list were (zoning) approved, designed, sold, and financed during a very different real estate market. And so it is that market that is right now bestowing this level of architecture on Toronto.
2026 is going to be an exciting year for One Delisle. The tower will be topped out shortly, with the curtain wall cladding following closely behind. And drywall is already going up in the suites on the lower floors. This is the year where things really come together. I can't wait.
Good morning, and welcome back to work and school.
I remember a moment very early on in my development career when I was sitting in a boardroom with dozens of "gray hairs" and the topic of Toronto's Union Station revitalization came up. Specifically, the proposed plan to dig out a new basement and add significant retail throughout the station. This was before construction had started in 2010 and it was considered a rather novel move.
At the time, Union Station was essentially a transit hub with a few ancillary retail offerings like Jugo Juice and Cinnabon (for the good smells). My comment was along the lines of "Finally, more retail, what a great idea," but everyone looked at me like I had three heads. The consensus in the room was, "It'll never work, Brandon." And what was implied was that I just didn't have enough real estate experience to get that.
But what I didn't understand was their reaction. Union Station is the busiest mobility hub in the country. Hundreds of thousands of people pass through it each day. Today, I think the number is somewhere around 300,000 people. This is like the entire population of Markham or Vaughan passing through one building every single day. It's hard to imagine a better anchor than rail. Surely, if you put retail in front of this foot traffic, you'll be able to monetize it!
Fast forward to today.
Over the weekend, Bianca and I took the subway to a Raptors game. As we walked through the concourse, the first thing I said to her was, "I really love what they have done here. Union finally feels like a station fit for a global city like Toronto." It feels grand, there are global retailers like Uniqlo, Shake Shack, Arabica, and many others, and the wayfinding seems to only be getting better. The pathway to Scotiabank Arena felt deliberate — finally.
I have no firsthand experience with the revitalization program or the leasing at Union Station. So I couldn't tell you quantitatively how the stores and restaurants are performing. I also recognize that construction was massively delayed and ran over budget. But anecdotally, I can say that you do have to wait a long time for a burger from Shake Shack, even late at night. The place is always busy.
Union Station seems well on its way to being a commercial success, and it seems to be establishing itself not only as a mixed-use rail hub, but as a destination in downtown Toronto. If any of you have firsthand experience, please drop a comment below.
The best part about making predictions for a year ahead is that at the end of the year you get to look back with humility on what you were thinking at the time and realize how much you missed and how different things turned out.
So, what might happen in 2026?
Condominium development in Toronto: I think 2026 will be an important turning point year. If I keep saying this, at some point I'll be right, right? 2026 is the first year where we will start to see new condominium completions from the last cycle fall off significantly. Last year (2025), we were projecting nearly 32,000 condominium home completions. This year, it's projected to drop to ~17,487, with 2027 falling off even further as we head to almost no new supply (based on the current pipeline). What I think this means is that the first half of 2026 will still be painful as the market absorbs new inventory and the inventory from 2025 (including unsold units, units in default, and other scenarios), but that things will start to stabilize and feel better toward the end of 2026 and into 2027. New supply will now be delivering below the 10-year average for the first time in many years.
Purpose-built rental development in Toronto: The story since the condominium market turned in 2022 has been the flip to rental. But not all developers and sites can make this switch and, as I have argued before, the numbers suggest that it won't be enough to offset our dwindling new condominium supply. That said, I think rental rates will remain soft throughout 2026. The supply crunch we're headed toward will need a bit more time to be felt by the market. In the meantime, we will see the highly-amenitized purpose-built rental model fail. The strategy of using over-the-top amenities to drive high rents will finally fall apart in the current market environment. In its place will be a flight to value: boring rental models that offer a quality housing experience at reasonable prices.
Dave Leblanc ("The Architourist") just published this article in the Globe and Mail talking about the four Toronto building projects that he'll be watching in 2026. And number one on his list is none other than One Delisle (though maybe it's intended to be in no particular order):
Announced back in 2017, this 16-sided, 47-storey, circular tower was penned by Jeanne Gang, an award-winning Chicago-based architect and educator. Interestingly, while Ms. Gang holds the record of “tallest building in the world designed by a woman,” the 101-floor/363 metres-high St. Regis Chicago (hotel and residences), she is better known as a socially responsible designer sensitive to the pedestrian realm and for her love of biophilic design, which connects end-users to nature.
When I interviewed Ms. Gang back in 2021, I asked if One Delisle had been inspired by a pine cone or an artichoke. “Both an artichoke and a pine cone – and a sunflower for that matter – there’s a spiralling organization of the seeds, the petals,” she said. “It’s nature solving a packing problem.”
With the people-packing (occupancy) set for this year or next, I visited the site last week. And, unlike some projects, it holds true to Ms. Gang’s original sketch. And the way the base is organized to project west onto Delisle Avenue means Janet Rosenberg & Studio’s landscaping will make a real impact.
Dave is right to point out the lag between sales and shovels. All four of the projects on his list were (zoning) approved, designed, sold, and financed during a very different real estate market. And so it is that market that is right now bestowing this level of architecture on Toronto.
2026 is going to be an exciting year for One Delisle. The tower will be topped out shortly, with the curtain wall cladding following closely behind. And drywall is already going up in the suites on the lower floors. This is the year where things really come together. I can't wait.
Good morning, and welcome back to work and school.
I remember a moment very early on in my development career when I was sitting in a boardroom with dozens of "gray hairs" and the topic of Toronto's Union Station revitalization came up. Specifically, the proposed plan to dig out a new basement and add significant retail throughout the station. This was before construction had started in 2010 and it was considered a rather novel move.
At the time, Union Station was essentially a transit hub with a few ancillary retail offerings like Jugo Juice and Cinnabon (for the good smells). My comment was along the lines of "Finally, more retail, what a great idea," but everyone looked at me like I had three heads. The consensus in the room was, "It'll never work, Brandon." And what was implied was that I just didn't have enough real estate experience to get that.
But what I didn't understand was their reaction. Union Station is the busiest mobility hub in the country. Hundreds of thousands of people pass through it each day. Today, I think the number is somewhere around 300,000 people. This is like the entire population of Markham or Vaughan passing through one building every single day. It's hard to imagine a better anchor than rail. Surely, if you put retail in front of this foot traffic, you'll be able to monetize it!
Fast forward to today.
Over the weekend, Bianca and I took the subway to a Raptors game. As we walked through the concourse, the first thing I said to her was, "I really love what they have done here. Union finally feels like a station fit for a global city like Toronto." It feels grand, there are global retailers like Uniqlo, Shake Shack, Arabica, and many others, and the wayfinding seems to only be getting better. The pathway to Scotiabank Arena felt deliberate — finally.
I have no firsthand experience with the revitalization program or the leasing at Union Station. So I couldn't tell you quantitatively how the stores and restaurants are performing. I also recognize that construction was massively delayed and ran over budget. But anecdotally, I can say that you do have to wait a long time for a burger from Shake Shack, even late at night. The place is always busy.
Union Station seems well on its way to being a commercial success, and it seems to be establishing itself not only as a mixed-use rail hub, but as a destination in downtown Toronto. If any of you have firsthand experience, please drop a comment below.
The best part about making predictions for a year ahead is that at the end of the year you get to look back with humility on what you were thinking at the time and realize how much you missed and how different things turned out.
So, what might happen in 2026?
Condominium development in Toronto: I think 2026 will be an important turning point year. If I keep saying this, at some point I'll be right, right? 2026 is the first year where we will start to see new condominium completions from the last cycle fall off significantly. Last year (2025), we were projecting nearly 32,000 condominium home completions. This year, it's projected to drop to ~17,487, with 2027 falling off even further as we head to almost no new supply (based on the current pipeline). What I think this means is that the first half of 2026 will still be painful as the market absorbs new inventory and the inventory from 2025 (including unsold units, units in default, and other scenarios), but that things will start to stabilize and feel better toward the end of 2026 and into 2027. New supply will now be delivering below the 10-year average for the first time in many years.
Purpose-built rental development in Toronto: The story since the condominium market turned in 2022 has been the flip to rental. But not all developers and sites can make this switch and, as I have argued before, the numbers suggest that it won't be enough to offset our dwindling new condominium supply. That said, I think rental rates will remain soft throughout 2026. The supply crunch we're headed toward will need a bit more time to be felt by the market. In the meantime, we will see the highly-amenitized purpose-built rental model fail. The strategy of using over-the-top amenities to drive high rents will finally fall apart in the current market environment. In its place will be a flight to value: boring rental models that offer a quality housing experience at reasonable prices.
Foreign buyer ban: The Canadian federal government will relax the foreign buyer ban (which is set to expire on January 1, 2027) and allow foreigners to buy pre-construction homes. There are already rumblings about this so I acknowledge this isn't that bold a prediction. But beyond just relaxing the ban, I think government will start actively courting foreign capital to help solve our housing needs.
AI bubble: 2026 will be the year that the AI bubble bursts. Not because AI isn't powerful tech that will continue to change the world, but because we are, in the words of investor Howard Marks, in an "inflection bubble." This is different from a fake bubble like Tulip Mania where there was ultimately no underlying reason for tulips to be valued so highly. An inflection bubble is where we get the direction right (AI is a big deal), but the magnitude wrong (shit, we overspent on CapEx). Not every AI company can and will survive. There will only be a select few once the dust settles. And since AI seems to be what's driving the market these days, I think the market will close the end of this year down (measured as the performance of the S&P 500).
Continued AI adoption: That said, AI will continue to change the way we all live and work. While this is going to put some people out of a job, my bias is an optimistic one in that new technologies tend to create new opportunities and generally grow the overall economy. However, I think that at least two enormous internet-type shifts are underway. One, AI is creating a massive productivity leverage for the people and firms that know how to harness it and, two, the backend of the global financial market is moving "onchain." These are profound shifts that I, unfortunately, think will lead to even more social and political division in the short term. A government somewhere in the world will respond with a universal basic income.
AI bubble impact on real estate: An AI bubble bursting will generally help the real estate market as investors look for returns somewhere else, with the exception of the data center market. It will also create downward pressure on interest rates (which, in the US, remain the highest they have been since the Great Recession in 2008). As we know, lower rates help boost the values of highly-levered assets like real estate.
AR/VR/AI for design and construction coordination: I was blown away the first time I tried Apple Vision Pro. It's a magical experience. But it has failed as a consumer product and who knows what Apple will launch next. Regardless, this year we will see clear use cases emerge for AR, VR, and smart glasses. I'd like to see the problems of design and construction coordination get immediately solved because they're massive and costly and they have yet to be solved.
Mainstream tokenization: In yesterday's post, I spoke about the lack of a breakout consumer-facing web3 app in 2025 (with honourable mention going to the Base app). But perhaps one of the big stories of last year was stablecoins entering the mainstream. Most people now agree they have achieved product-market fit. This is crypto solving real problems (cheap/fast cross-border remittances, payments, etc) with users not needing to think or care about the underlying blockchain technology. In 2026, we will see a noteworthy office building or apartment building get tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain.
Autonomous vehicles: Last year, I predicted that autonomous vehicles were going to have a year, and it certainly felt that way. This year will be the first year that I ride in one. I came close on a layover in San Francisco in December. I considered leaving the airport and taking one to Apple Park. But I would have been cutting it too close. In 2026, we will see an insurer refuse to cover a human driver for the first time, marking a clear global shift toward autonomy. Already, none of us should be driving cars anymore looking at current safety data.
Polycentric world: Some have argued that 2025 marked the end of globalization. I'm not sure that is accurate. I think it marked the end of the US-led post-war world order and the acceleration of a more polycentric world order. It was the start of greater US insularity. In 2026, Canada will start to see the benefits of this shift. What it is doing is shaking us out of complacency and forcing us to look east to Europe and west to Asia, as opposed to just south to the US.
What are your predictions for the year ahead?
Foreign buyer ban: The Canadian federal government will relax the foreign buyer ban (which is set to expire on January 1, 2027) and allow foreigners to buy pre-construction homes. There are already rumblings about this so I acknowledge this isn't that bold a prediction. But beyond just relaxing the ban, I think government will start actively courting foreign capital to help solve our housing needs.
AI bubble: 2026 will be the year that the AI bubble bursts. Not because AI isn't powerful tech that will continue to change the world, but because we are, in the words of investor Howard Marks, in an "inflection bubble." This is different from a fake bubble like Tulip Mania where there was ultimately no underlying reason for tulips to be valued so highly. An inflection bubble is where we get the direction right (AI is a big deal), but the magnitude wrong (shit, we overspent on CapEx). Not every AI company can and will survive. There will only be a select few once the dust settles. And since AI seems to be what's driving the market these days, I think the market will close the end of this year down (measured as the performance of the S&P 500).
Continued AI adoption: That said, AI will continue to change the way we all live and work. While this is going to put some people out of a job, my bias is an optimistic one in that new technologies tend to create new opportunities and generally grow the overall economy. However, I think that at least two enormous internet-type shifts are underway. One, AI is creating a massive productivity leverage for the people and firms that know how to harness it and, two, the backend of the global financial market is moving "onchain." These are profound shifts that I, unfortunately, think will lead to even more social and political division in the short term. A government somewhere in the world will respond with a universal basic income.
AI bubble impact on real estate: An AI bubble bursting will generally help the real estate market as investors look for returns somewhere else, with the exception of the data center market. It will also create downward pressure on interest rates (which, in the US, remain the highest they have been since the Great Recession in 2008). As we know, lower rates help boost the values of highly-levered assets like real estate.
AR/VR/AI for design and construction coordination: I was blown away the first time I tried Apple Vision Pro. It's a magical experience. But it has failed as a consumer product and who knows what Apple will launch next. Regardless, this year we will see clear use cases emerge for AR, VR, and smart glasses. I'd like to see the problems of design and construction coordination get immediately solved because they're massive and costly and they have yet to be solved.
Mainstream tokenization: In yesterday's post, I spoke about the lack of a breakout consumer-facing web3 app in 2025 (with honourable mention going to the Base app). But perhaps one of the big stories of last year was stablecoins entering the mainstream. Most people now agree they have achieved product-market fit. This is crypto solving real problems (cheap/fast cross-border remittances, payments, etc) with users not needing to think or care about the underlying blockchain technology. In 2026, we will see a noteworthy office building or apartment building get tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain.
Autonomous vehicles: Last year, I predicted that autonomous vehicles were going to have a year, and it certainly felt that way. This year will be the first year that I ride in one. I came close on a layover in San Francisco in December. I considered leaving the airport and taking one to Apple Park. But I would have been cutting it too close. In 2026, we will see an insurer refuse to cover a human driver for the first time, marking a clear global shift toward autonomy. Already, none of us should be driving cars anymore looking at current safety data.
Polycentric world: Some have argued that 2025 marked the end of globalization. I'm not sure that is accurate. I think it marked the end of the US-led post-war world order and the acceleration of a more polycentric world order. It was the start of greater US insularity. In 2026, Canada will start to see the benefits of this shift. What it is doing is shaking us out of complacency and forcing us to look east to Europe and west to Asia, as opposed to just south to the US.
What are your predictions for the year ahead?
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