In addition to the recently proposed HST rebate for new homes, the federal government and the province of Ontario announced that they will be providing funding to help municipalities reduce their development charges by up to 50% over the next three years. And according to some estimates, these two measures will temporarily cut the cost of building a new home in Ontario by something in the range of 15-20%.

From what I have seen, most, if not all, of these savings are now going to the consumer. As Mike Moffatt points out in this recent Globe and Mail article, developers are passing them along because of competition, because they need to compete with lower-priced resale homes, and because, frankly, it's the only way to try and unstick this market.

What is not so clear, though, is whether this is enough. Moffatt argues that "now that new homes can be sold at prices that make them viable to build, more homes will be built, adding further downward pressure on resale prices." This is certainly one of the policy goals — to get more developers building again. But I don't think we're there quite yet. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Cover photo by Jaipreet Singh on Unsplash

This is a follow-up to yesterday's post about too many people allegedly speculating on underutilized urban land. Over the weekend, I saw Patrick Condon, a professor at UBC and author of the book "Broken City: Land Speculation, Inequality, and Urban Crisis," argue that "urban land is the impossible-to-ignore driver of the housing crisis." Is it really? Let me offer the developer's perspective and explain what has happened in Toronto.

It is certainly true that the price of development land appreciated rapidly toward the end of the last cycle and that, at the time, there was enough margin for developers to bifurcate the work of zoning land and actually building out projects. But since 2022, that has gone away, and we have seen a dramatic correction in pricing.

According to Bullpen and Batory's Q4-2025 High-Rise Land Insights Report, the average sold price for a high-density site in the GTA has gone from $119 per buildable square foot in 2019 to $78 per buildable square foot at the end of last year (a ~34% decline).

But this is a blended average. In my experience, the falloff in pricing has been even more dramatic and, in many cases, land now feels illiquid. With rents declining and new condominiums not selling, what's the value? Land prices are a function of what you can do with the land. If what you can do disappears, so too does the value. Land is not the problem right now.

But even if we were to ignore current market factors, it's debatable whether land prices were really the primary driver of unaffordable housing. About six years ago, Toronto developer Urban Capital published a pro forma comparison between a project they did in 2005 and a project they were doing in 2020.

What they found over this 15-year period was that construction costs increased by 91%, land costs increased by 160%, and government fees and taxes increased by some 413% (development charges alone increased by 3,244%!). The price of development land certainly increased, surpassing the rate of inflation, but we can't ignore that roughly a third of the price of a new home became government fees and taxes.

Today, there are countless development models that don't pencil even if you plug the land value in at $0. That tells me that we've got bigger problems.

Cover photo by Patrick Tomasso on Unsplash

In April of 2025, a bill was introduced in Washington, DC, called the One Front Door Amendment Act. It aims to do what many cities are now working on or considering, which is to allow single-stair/egress buildings up to six storeys. This, as most of you know, is very common throughout the world. It's a key ingredient in fine-grained infill housing, but it is generally not permissible in Canada and the US above certain build heights. In DC, I understand the current limit is 3 storeys.

The bill had its first Council reading last month and it passed unanimously (13-0). There is the small problem of there being no funding to enact the bill (it was passed "subject to appropriations'), but I call that a minor detail. The deadline for the Department of Buildings to issue new rules is July 1, 2027, which means this is how long they have to find the money and then do the technical work required to allow these new single-stair buildings. It's not done yet, but from the outside, it appears to be progressing.

Now the obvious question becomes: what the hell is taking Toronto so long? What is our deadline for implementation? As far as I know, there isn't one. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) We now permit 6-storey apartments along all "Major Streets" in the city — from a planning perspective, at least — except the economics do not work at scale, and the requirement for two exit stairs remains one of the major obstacles. Enough with the navel-gazing. Let's get building, Toronto!

Cover photo by Andy Feliciotti on Unsplash