Architecture billings are typically viewed as a leading indicator for the development industry. That's because, in order to build things, you need permits. And in order to get permits, you need architects to draw things.

So every month, the American Institute of Architects surveys design firms as a way to determine how the industry is doing. The primary question it asks is: Have your billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended? Based on the proportion of respondents choosing each option, an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score is created.

A score of 50 means there has been no change in billings from the previous month. A score above 50 indicates an increase. And a score below 50 indicates a decrease. Here's this score for August 2024 to August 2025:

Billings are down across the US. In fact, the survey notes that the value of design contracts has declined for an 18th consecutive month, marking the longest period of decline since the survey started 15 years ago. This is true across all regions, though the South has the best relative performance and the West has the worst. The commercial/industrial sector also appears to have the best relative performance, which, I'm only guessing, could be a result of things like data centers.

I don't have perfectly comparable data for Canada, but I know that architecture billings are way down in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Architecture and development firms continue to lay off people, which is the strongest kind of indicator.

One of the things I always find interesting is how globally connected we all are. Real estate may be a local business, but it does depend on global capital flows and overall sentiment. The US market is soft. The Canadian market is soft — with some markets being largely shut off, to be more precise. And when I was in Paris last month, I heard a lot of the same from architects and developers (except from those able to subsist on government work).

Images: AIA / Detek ABI (August 2025)