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My dad sent me an article from Canoe Financial over the weekend that included the chart below. What it shows is that corporate equities and mutual fund shares now make up a greater percentage of household wealth in the US than residential real estate for only the second time since 1990.
From a macro perspective, and when you consider the popularity of index funds, this means that American households probably have a lot of their wealth concentrated in high-growth tech stocks. And since these stocks are being driven higher largely due to the promise of AI, there's perhaps a concentration risk for US households.
The other thing this chart made me wonder about was what it would look like for Canadian households.
According to these net worth indicators released by Statistics Canada in October 2025, real estate as a share of total household assets was sitting at 41.8%. Financial assets as a share of total assets were at 53.4%, but this includes life insurance and pensions, which are not included in the US chart.
If we remove this line item, we're left with "other financial assets" at 37.8%. However, this account also includes cash deposits, bonds, foreign investments, and other receivables, which I also don't think are carried in the US chart. So net-net, Canadian household wealth is composed of real estate at 41.8% and corporate equities at some number below 37.8%.
Real estate is the larger net worth account for Canadian households. Whether this is good or bad is a topic for another post, but there's certainly an argument to be made that Canadians are over-indexing on real estate at the expense of investing in new ideas and businesses.
Cover photo by Daniela Araya on Unsplash
Architecture billings are typically viewed as a leading indicator for the development industry. That's because, in order to build things, you need permits. And in order to get permits, you need architects to draw things.
So every month, the American Institute of Architects surveys design firms as a way to determine how the industry is doing. The primary question it asks is: Have your billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended? Based on the proportion of respondents choosing each option, an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score is created.
A score of 50 means there has been no change in billings from the previous month. A score above 50 indicates an increase. And a score below 50 indicates a decrease. Here's this score for August 2024 to August 2025:
Generally speaking, new homes tend to be priced higher than existing homes. This is, again generally, true because new homes are expensive to build, they're new and shiny, and because oftentimes they're pre-sold, meaning the purchase price reflects some future value.
But interestingly enough, this relationship has just flipped in the US, for the first time in at least 25 years. Here's the chart via Charlie Bilello:
This is, of course, a national average, and every submarket and product type is naturally going to have its nuances. Still, this inversion is noteworthy for a handful of possible reasons.
One, it points to softness in the new-home market. And indeed, homebuilder sentiment is down right now.
Two, it may suggest that homebuilders are building smaller, more affordable homes, which would bring down the median price.
And three, it's an indication of the "lock-in effect" that is prevalent in the US (but that is far less of a factor in Canada, where mortgages typically renew every few years).
For homeowners who are locked in at generationally low mortgage rates, there is a huge disincentive to sell. It would mean losing buying power. So why bother, unless you really have to?
This reduces the supply of existing homes on the market.
My dad sent me an article from Canoe Financial over the weekend that included the chart below. What it shows is that corporate equities and mutual fund shares now make up a greater percentage of household wealth in the US than residential real estate for only the second time since 1990.
From a macro perspective, and when you consider the popularity of index funds, this means that American households probably have a lot of their wealth concentrated in high-growth tech stocks. And since these stocks are being driven higher largely due to the promise of AI, there's perhaps a concentration risk for US households.
The other thing this chart made me wonder about was what it would look like for Canadian households.
According to these net worth indicators released by Statistics Canada in October 2025, real estate as a share of total household assets was sitting at 41.8%. Financial assets as a share of total assets were at 53.4%, but this includes life insurance and pensions, which are not included in the US chart.
If we remove this line item, we're left with "other financial assets" at 37.8%. However, this account also includes cash deposits, bonds, foreign investments, and other receivables, which I also don't think are carried in the US chart. So net-net, Canadian household wealth is composed of real estate at 41.8% and corporate equities at some number below 37.8%.
Real estate is the larger net worth account for Canadian households. Whether this is good or bad is a topic for another post, but there's certainly an argument to be made that Canadians are over-indexing on real estate at the expense of investing in new ideas and businesses.
Cover photo by Daniela Araya on Unsplash
Architecture billings are typically viewed as a leading indicator for the development industry. That's because, in order to build things, you need permits. And in order to get permits, you need architects to draw things.
So every month, the American Institute of Architects surveys design firms as a way to determine how the industry is doing. The primary question it asks is: Have your billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended? Based on the proportion of respondents choosing each option, an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score is created.
A score of 50 means there has been no change in billings from the previous month. A score above 50 indicates an increase. And a score below 50 indicates a decrease. Here's this score for August 2024 to August 2025:
Generally speaking, new homes tend to be priced higher than existing homes. This is, again generally, true because new homes are expensive to build, they're new and shiny, and because oftentimes they're pre-sold, meaning the purchase price reflects some future value.
But interestingly enough, this relationship has just flipped in the US, for the first time in at least 25 years. Here's the chart via Charlie Bilello:
This is, of course, a national average, and every submarket and product type is naturally going to have its nuances. Still, this inversion is noteworthy for a handful of possible reasons.
One, it points to softness in the new-home market. And indeed, homebuilder sentiment is down right now.
Two, it may suggest that homebuilders are building smaller, more affordable homes, which would bring down the median price.
And three, it's an indication of the "lock-in effect" that is prevalent in the US (but that is far less of a factor in Canada, where mortgages typically renew every few years).
For homeowners who are locked in at generationally low mortgage rates, there is a huge disincentive to sell. It would mean losing buying power. So why bother, unless you really have to?
This reduces the supply of existing homes on the market.
I don't have perfectly comparable data for Canada, but I know that architecture billings are way down in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Architecture and development firms continue to lay off people, which is the strongest kind of indicator.
One of the things I always find interesting is how globally connected we all are. Real estate may be a local business, but it does depend on global capital flows and overall sentiment. The US market is soft. The Canadian market is soft — with some markets being largely shut off, to be more precise. And when I was in Paris last month, I heard a lot of the same from architects and developers (except from those able to subsist on government work).
Images: AIA / Detek ABI (August 2025)
I don't have perfectly comparable data for Canada, but I know that architecture billings are way down in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Architecture and development firms continue to lay off people, which is the strongest kind of indicator.
One of the things I always find interesting is how globally connected we all are. Real estate may be a local business, but it does depend on global capital flows and overall sentiment. The US market is soft. The Canadian market is soft — with some markets being largely shut off, to be more precise. And when I was in Paris last month, I heard a lot of the same from architects and developers (except from those able to subsist on government work).
Images: AIA / Detek ABI (August 2025)
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