The Globe and Mail just published this piece about job cuts across the real estate industry. And pictured in the article is my friend Norm Li, who runs a renowned visualization company here in Toronto, but just recently had to lay off 75% of his team.
This is sad — and quite a departure from the way things were before 2022. You used to have to book Norm and his team many months in advance just to get in the queue. That's how busy they were creating visual content for the architecture and development industry.
But there's not much you can do when the market more or less shut offs. And Norm is not alone. The article estimates that there are some 536,300 jobs in the new construction sector in Canada. And based on the way the above chart is looking, up to 170,000 of these jobs are currently at risk of disappearing.
If you look at the comment section of the article you'll find that a lot of people either couldn't care less or actually relish the fact that the real estate industry is shedding jobs. A lot of people responded with "good." This is not at all surprising (and not just because it's, you know, a comment section). Homes remain unaffordable in Canada.
In the first quarter of this year, RBC estimated that the share of income needed to cover homeownership costs in Toronto is still averaging over 60%. And so for many/most people, the new construction sector isn't a source of personal utility; it's a creator of things that aren't affordable.
Oh, you can't make money anymore? Good.
But here's a better kind of "good" to consider: as painful as the current conditions are for everyone in the industry — myself included — the market is being forced into a reset. Among many other things, municipalities are rethinking their development charges, construction costs are coming down, and nearly every developer seems to be pivoting their new-home business toward bona fide end users (as opposed to investors).
What I think this means is that when the market does return — and it, of course, will — it is highly likely that it will be rooted in sounder fundamentals. And this, I would say, is good.
Cover photo by Maarten van den Heuvel on Unsplash; pre-construction home sales chart from the Globe and Mail
I hope all of you had a great longish Canada Day weekend. I say longish, because maybe you took off Monday, or maybe you didn't. Either way, yesterday was Canada Day. I love Canada Day. Every year I take out my giant flag and bring it with me wherever possible in celebration of this place.
This past Saturday I took it to Electric Island. And what I will say is that I saw a noticeable uptick in house and techno fans wearing Canadiana. Everything from Blue Jays hats to t-shirts saying things about the direction of elbows. This is not at all surprising. We know what happened this year. And the result is that Canadian patriotism is surging.
According to Leger and the National Post, 83% of people surveyed in June 2025 said they're proud to be Canadian. And according to Angus Reid, who polled people in February of this year, nearly 60% of Canadians said they have a "deep emotional attachment" to country. This is what happens someone punches you in the face. You get your back up and seek out solidarity.
But when channelled correctly, this can be a positive thing. What we need it to do is to continue to shake us out of complacency. The status quo puts us at risk and accepts mediocrity. We need to diversify our economy (away from the US), build with the greatest of urgency, and think of ourselves as an emerging global superpower.
Happy (belated) Canada Day, everyone.
The One Canadian Economy Act, which received Royal Assent on June 26, 2025, has two components to it: the Building Canada Act and the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act. Today, I'd like to talk about the first one.
The intent of the act is to expedite the delivery of "nation-building projects." Projects that will strengthen Canada's autonomy, resilience, and security, and turn the country into a global superpower (my words, not theirs).
The government states that this might include things like highways, railways, ports, airports, oil pipelines, critical minerals, mines, nuclear facilities, and electricity transmission systems.
At a high level, the streamlining is intended to work like this:
Projects first need to qualify as a nation-building project.
Then, the federal government approves the project right from the outset.
Following this a single conditions document will be issued by a new Federal Major Projects Office. This is intended to replace the current process of multiple sets of comments, conditions, and federal permits.
Overall, the target is to reduce average approval timelines from ~5 years to ~2 years.
What I particularly like about this sequence is that projects get "approved" right at the start. This is intended to immediately change the conversation from whether we should build to how do we build, which is an important distinction.
As someone who manages projects for a living, I can tell you that decisive and clear direction is critical to moving projects forward. Uncertainty and indecision kill momentum and motivation within teams. You need to be able to say, "this project is going, and going fast, so focus on figuring it out and making it happen!"
Ultimately, everything comes down to execution. But at least we're taking positive steps toward becoming a country that once again builds — and builds big.