According to recent data from Altus, Toronto recorded 42 new condominium sales in the month of May. That's a 97% decrease since May 2021, for a city of over 3 million people (city proper, not the metro area). So for all intents and purposes, the market is shut off. And it has resulted in upwards of 12,000 construction sector jobs disappearing over the last 12 months in Ontario. Moreover, it has left the Toronto Area with an unemployment rate that is close to 10%.

But that's not all.

The Missing Middle Initiative estimates that this dramatic decline in new home sales (which is more of a leading indicator than housing starts) could conservatively result in all three levels of government forgoing something like $6.6 billion in tax revenue each year. And within this lost revenue, there's something like a $2 billion reduction in revenue just from development charges (which don't get paid if developers aren't starting construction).

These are alarming figures that beg the question: How will government make up this shortfall? But once again, here's the thing. If development charges are intended to be "growth paying growth" then, in theory at least, development charge revenue shouldn't matter. The growth has disappeared and so the things that DCs pay for should also disappear — right?

In practice, we know that it's more nuanced than this and that growth pays for a lot of stuff. The clearest evidence of this is likely to rear its head when the DC funds run out. We're going to be forced to plug the hole with something else. So over the long term, I actually think this will prove to be a positive outcome for the housing market. Because it's going to necessarily wean us off the practice of overtaxing new homes.

So this seems like a pretty cool strategy.

Amancio  Ortega — who is the founder of the fashion brand Zara — is a ~59% owner of Inditex, which is the largest fashion group in the world and the parent company of Zara. This ownership stake sits in his investment vehicle Pontegadea and each year the dividends of Inditex result in many billions of euros being deposited into its accounts.

In 2022, it was ~€1.7 billion. In 2023, it was ~€2.2 billion. And this year, it is forecasted to exceed €3 billion for the first time. What Ortega has decided to do with these billions is diversify risk away from the fashion sector and preserve generational wealth through stable, income-generating real assets. In other words, the strategy is to go around the world, buy the coolest trophy assets, and build a wealth fortress.

For example, in 2022, Pontegadea acquired Royal Bank Plaza in Toronto for ~C$1.2 billion. This was one of the largest office building transactions in Canadian history and, as far as I can tell, it's the largest single-asset purchase made by the company to date.

This year alone, they've acquired an apartment building in Fort Lauderdale for €165 million, an office building in Barcelona for €250 million, and Hotel Banke in Paris for €97 million. This was their second acquisition in Paris this year, and hospitality seems to be a new push for the firm.

Having billions of euros show up every year to recycle into global real estate acquisitions is pretty neat in its own right. But I also think it's interesting to monitor where and what he's buying. Pontegadea is not trying to time the market or bet against short-term dislocations. They're methodically building a fortress of core assets in the world's top global cities.

Intuitively, we know what these core assets

According to recent data from Altus, Toronto recorded 42 new condominium sales in the month of May. That's a 97% decrease since May 2021, for a city of over 3 million people (city proper, not the metro area). So for all intents and purposes, the market is shut off. And it has resulted in upwards of 12,000 construction sector jobs disappearing over the last 12 months in Ontario. Moreover, it has left the Toronto Area with an unemployment rate that is close to 10%.

But that's not all.

The Missing Middle Initiative estimates that this dramatic decline in new home sales (which is more of a leading indicator than housing starts) could conservatively result in all three levels of government forgoing something like $6.6 billion in tax revenue each year. And within this lost revenue, there's something like a $2 billion reduction in revenue just from development charges (which don't get paid if developers aren't starting construction).

These are alarming figures that beg the question: How will government make up this shortfall? But once again, here's the thing. If development charges are intended to be "growth paying growth" then, in theory at least, development charge revenue shouldn't matter. The growth has disappeared and so the things that DCs pay for should also disappear — right?

In practice, we know that it's more nuanced than this and that growth pays for a lot of stuff. The clearest evidence of this is likely to rear its head when the DC funds run out. We're going to be forced to plug the hole with something else. So over the long term, I actually think this will prove to be a positive outcome for the housing market. Because it's going to necessarily wean us off the practice of overtaxing new homes.

So this seems like a pretty cool strategy.

Amancio  Ortega — who is the founder of the fashion brand Zara — is a ~59% owner of Inditex, which is the largest fashion group in the world and the parent company of Zara. This ownership stake sits in his investment vehicle Pontegadea and each year the dividends of Inditex result in many billions of euros being deposited into its accounts.

In 2022, it was ~€1.7 billion. In 2023, it was ~€2.2 billion. And this year, it is forecasted to exceed €3 billion for the first time. What Ortega has decided to do with these billions is diversify risk away from the fashion sector and preserve generational wealth through stable, income-generating real assets. In other words, the strategy is to go around the world, buy the coolest trophy assets, and build a wealth fortress.

For example, in 2022, Pontegadea acquired Royal Bank Plaza in Toronto for ~C$1.2 billion. This was one of the largest office building transactions in Canadian history and, as far as I can tell, it's the largest single-asset purchase made by the company to date.

This year alone, they've acquired an apartment building in Fort Lauderdale for €165 million, an office building in Barcelona for €250 million, and Hotel Banke in Paris for €97 million. This was their second acquisition in Paris this year, and hospitality seems to be a new push for the firm.

Having billions of euros show up every year to recycle into global real estate acquisitions is pretty neat in its own right. But I also think it's interesting to monitor where and what he's buying. Pontegadea is not trying to time the market or bet against short-term dislocations. They're methodically building a fortress of core assets in the world's top global cities.

Intuitively, we know what these core assets