Brandon DonnellyCanada must become a global superpower
The silver lining to the US starting a trade war with Canada and regularly threatening annexation is that it has forced this country out of complacency. Indeed, I'm hard pressed to remember a time, at least in my lifetime, when patriotism and nationalism has united so much of Canada. According to a recent survey by Angus Reid, the percentage of Canadians expressing a "deep emotional attachment" to the country jumped from 49% in December 2024 to 59% in February 2025. And as further evidence of...
Brandon DonnellyThe bank robbery capital of the world
Between 1985 and 1995, Los Angeles' retail bank branches were robbed some 17,106 times. In 1992, which was the the city's worst year for robberies, the number was 2,641. This roughly translated into about one bank robbery every 45 minutes of each banking day. All of this, according to this CrimeReads piece by Peter Houlahan, gave Los Angeles the dubious title of "The Bank Robbery Capital of the World" during this time period. So what caused this? Well according to Peter it was facil...
Brandon DonnellyThe story behind those pixelated video game mosaics in Paris
If you've ever been to Paris, you've probably noticed the small pixelated art pieces that are scattered all around the city on buildings and various other hard surfaces. Or maybe you haven't seen or noticed them in Paris, but you've seen similarly pixelated mosaics in one of the other 79 cities around the world where they can be found. Or maybe you have no idea what I'm talking about right now. Huh? Here's an example from Bolivia (click here if you can't see...
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Brandon DonnellyOnly 533 new condominiums were sold last quarter in the Toronto region
Urbanation just released its Q1-2025 condominium market survey results for the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA). Here's how things are looking:
The entire GTHA recorded 533 new condominium sales and the City of Toronto recorded 215 new condominium sales in the quarter. Once again, and as you can see above, this is the lowest level since the early 90s.
For all intents and purposes, I think you can look at these sales figures as mostly representing a zero. The numbers are relatively small and a sale doesn't necessarily equate 1:1 to an eventual new home. The sale needs to be within a project that achieves its requisite pre-sales for construction financing.
Urbanation just released its Q1-2025 condominium market survey results for the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA). Here's how things are looking:
The entire GTHA recorded 533 new condominium sales and the City of Toronto recorded 215 new condominium sales in the quarter. Once again, and as you can see above, this is the lowest level since the early 90s.
For all intents and purposes, I think you can look at these sales figures as mostly representing a zero. The numbers are relatively small and a sale doesn't necessarily equate 1:1 to an eventual new home. The sale needs to be within a project that achieves its requisite pre-sales for construction financing.
Support Brandon Donnelly
Brandon DonnellyOnly 533 new condominiums were sold last quarter in the Toronto region
Subscribe to Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon DonnellyCanada must become a global superpower
The silver lining to the US starting a trade war with Canada and regularly threatening annexation is that it has forced this country out of complacency. Indeed, I'm hard pressed to remember a time, at least in my lifetime, when patriotism and nationalism has united so much of Canada. According to a recent survey by Angus Reid, the percentage of Canadians expressing a "deep emotional attachment" to the country jumped from 49% in December 2024 to 59% in February 2025. And as further evidence of...
Brandon DonnellyThe bank robbery capital of the world
Between 1985 and 1995, Los Angeles' retail bank branches were robbed some 17,106 times. In 1992, which was the the city's worst year for robberies, the number was 2,641. This roughly translated into about one bank robbery every 45 minutes of each banking day. All of this, according to this CrimeReads piece by Peter Houlahan, gave Los Angeles the dubious title of "The Bank Robbery Capital of the World" during this time period. So what caused this? Well according to Peter it was facil...
Brandon DonnellyThe story behind those pixelated video game mosaics in Paris
If you've ever been to Paris, you've probably noticed the small pixelated art pieces that are scattered all around the city on buildings and various other hard surfaces. Or maybe you haven't seen or noticed them in Paris, but you've seen similarly pixelated mosaics in one of the other 79 cities around the world where they can be found. Or maybe you have no idea what I'm talking about right now. Huh? Here's an example from Bolivia (click here if you can't see...
Only 533 new condominiums were sold last quarter in the Toronto region. This is basically a zero. https://brandondonnelly.com/only-533-new-condominiums-were-sold-last-quarter-in-the-toronto-region
Since the beginning of 2024, Urbanation has tracked a total of 5,734 pre-construction condominiums that have been put on hold, cancelled, placed into receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental.
So where does this leave us? It leaves us with:
69,042 condominium homes under construction across the GTHA
10,934 unsold condominiums in pre-construction projects
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects (standing inventory)
One hypothetical could be that many/most of the projects currently in pre-construction never actually make it to construction, which would mean that the above 10,934 condominiums just disappear from the market. For argument's sake, let's assume this happens. That would leave projects under construction and standing inventory.
Of the condominium's currently under construction, 11,073 are unsold, which represents about 16% of the total. For the units that have sold, some will belong to end users, some will belong to investors who have an ability to close, and the rest will be buyers who, frankly, don't want to close or who can't close.
I don't know what this latter percentage might be, but let's say that 40% of the condominiums sold and under construction become a problem and need to be "reabsorbed" in the market. That is, they need to find new buyers. That would equal 23,187 condominiums (and hopefully I'm being very conservative). In this scenario we would have:
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
23,187 condominiums that become a problem and need to reabsorbed in the market
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects
Total of 36,171 "unsold" condominiums
So, how long will it take to absorb these new homes? I don't know. It depends on a bunch of factors, including immigration. But I think we need at least 2 more years just to physically deliver the homes that are currently under construction. Then there may be a period of reabsorption. That continues to suggest to me that 2028 could be the year where we're on the other side of this.
Cover photo by Brian Jones on Unsplash
Since the beginning of 2024, Urbanation has tracked a total of 5,734 pre-construction condominiums that have been put on hold, cancelled, placed into receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental.
So where does this leave us? It leaves us with:
69,042 condominium homes under construction across the GTHA
10,934 unsold condominiums in pre-construction projects
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects (standing inventory)
One hypothetical could be that many/most of the projects currently in pre-construction never actually make it to construction, which would mean that the above 10,934 condominiums just disappear from the market. For argument's sake, let's assume this happens. That would leave projects under construction and standing inventory.
Of the condominium's currently under construction, 11,073 are unsold, which represents about 16% of the total. For the units that have sold, some will belong to end users, some will belong to investors who have an ability to close, and the rest will be buyers who, frankly, don't want to close or who can't close.
I don't know what this latter percentage might be, but let's say that 40% of the condominiums sold and under construction become a problem and need to be "reabsorbed" in the market. That is, they need to find new buyers. That would equal 23,187 condominiums (and hopefully I'm being very conservative). In this scenario we would have:
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
23,187 condominiums that become a problem and need to reabsorbed in the market
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects
Total of 36,171 "unsold" condominiums
So, how long will it take to absorb these new homes? I don't know. It depends on a bunch of factors, including immigration. But I think we need at least 2 more years just to physically deliver the homes that are currently under construction. Then there may be a period of reabsorption. That continues to suggest to me that 2028 could be the year where we're on the other side of this.
Cover photo by Brian Jones on Unsplash
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Only 533 new condominiums were sold last quarter in the Toronto region. This is basically a zero. https://brandondonnelly.com/only-533-new-condominiums-were-sold-last-quarter-in-the-toronto-region