Yesterday morning, we did a day trip to Monaco. The main thing I wanted to see was Le Renzo (which is a project I have written about before). Designed by Renzo Piano Building Workshop, it is among the most expensive residential buildings in the world. Condominiums have reportedly sold for as high as €120,000 per square meter (or about €11,148 per square foot).
Before the trip, I emailed the district's PR contact to see if we could get a tour inside. Unfortunately, it's August in Europe, and they told me that nobody from the development team would be around to take us through. So we ended up just walking the perimeter. Here is a photo of the project's north elevation, facing inland.
Yesterday morning, we did a day trip to Monaco. The main thing I wanted to see was Le Renzo (which is a project I have written about before). Designed by Renzo Piano Building Workshop, it is among the most expensive residential buildings in the world. Condominiums have reportedly sold for as high as €120,000 per square meter (or about €11,148 per square foot).
Before the trip, I emailed the district's PR contact to see if we could get a tour inside. Unfortunately, it's August in Europe, and they told me that nobody from the development team would be around to take us through. So we ended up just walking the perimeter. Here is a photo of the project's north elevation, facing inland.
Here's the south side facing the sea:
And here's a photo of its western edge, including the building's outdoor pool amenity:
The -1 level is boat slips and retail, some of which are still in the process of opening. The fact that they placed the retail where they did stood out to me, because it feels akin to second-floor retail — meaning, it only works in certain places and under certain conditions. Maybe this is one of them.
The ground plane — or at least the level that connects inland — is visually open on all sides, except for the elevator cores and exit stairs coming down from the buildings. This gives you a clear view of the Mediterranean as you approach the district and makes the entire area feel publicly accessible. It's also meant to evoke the image of ships sitting in a dry dock.
We didn't stay in Monaco very long, but this project was the highlight for me. I would have really loved the opportunity to tour inside and get closer to its details.
Leaving Monaco requires some maneuvering if you didn't drive or take the train (which we didn't). Uber is banned within the principality. You can get dropped off in an Uber, but you can't request a car once you're there. This is what you'll see if you open up the app and try:
We were also told that they're very strict about this. If, for example, you get dropped off in an Uber and then try to go off-app for your return, the Uber driver runs the risk of a heavy fine and having their car confiscated for a week. So many drivers don't want to do this unless you're willing to compensate them for the risk.
What you instead need to do is walk to the Monaco-France border, which usually isn't far given the country has a total land area of around 2 square kilometers. As soon as the GPS on your phone signals that you're in France rather than Monaco, cars reappear in the app. And from my experience, the geofencing is accurate within a few meters. It was pretty neat.
In the future, I think a better option might be to road bike over. I saw a number of people doing that yesterday and, boy, it looked like fun.
One thing that I do not do on this blog is provide investment advice. And this post is certainly not that. But here's an idea and thought exercise that relates to urban mobility. Let's assume you own a personal vehicle that is currently valued at US$30k, and that this car is what you use to go about your daily life. Now imagine that you sold this car today, harvested all of the proceeds, and invested them into the following three companies: Uber, Alphabet, and Tesla. If you did this equally, your US$30k would end up as the following (based on today's share prices and if rounded down):
111 shares in Uber ($89.56/share)
49 shares in Alphabet ($201.42/share)
30 shares in Tesla ($329.68/share)
Then, instead of driving yourself around, you'd put the money that you would have normally spent on insurance, gas, and maintenance toward Ubers and Waymos (assuming Waymo is available in your city). Perhaps you even own a parking spot that could be rented out for an extra few hundred dollars each month. Whatever the specifics, let's just assume that what you used to spend to operate and service your car is now being spent on getting around using ride sharing services. It's a wash. So the only difference is that instead of having US$30k tied up in a depreciating asset, you're now part owner of the above three businesses.
This, once again, is not investment advice. I personally don't know how to make sense of Tesla's current valuation. There's a hell of a lot of optimism being priced in. I'm simply picking these three companies as a way to bet on Waymo's autonomous vehicle program (which is currently in the lead), Tesla's robotaxi promises (which, who knows, could actually materialize), and the fact that Uber might still remain the dominant marketplace for rides (though there's already evidence that Waymo is on track to overtake Uber in San Francisco within the next ~8 months).
It's not clear who will be the primary beneficiary of this shifting mobility landscape. Is Tesla right about
Uber's stock has done exceptionally well this year. At the time of writing this post, it's up over 60% year-to-date. But at the same time, it remains unclear to me what the relationship will be between Uber and this brave new world of autonomous vehicles.
I mean, right now, if you're in Phoenix, I'm told you can order a Waymo car through Uber's app. But if you're in San Francisco, Waymo customers must use the Waymo app. It's all bit mirky right now, but Uber is just trying to put "as many cars on Uber's network as possible."
There's also an argument that, for the foreseeable future, ride-hailing networks are going to need some mixture of both human and robot drivers. I get this argument. But beyond the short term, I think there will be strong incentives to completely eliminate human drivers.
Last month, the New York Times announced that Uber is in talks with Travis Kalanick, the company's co-founder who got pushed out 8 years ago, to help him buy autonomous vehicle company Pony.ai.
It's a bit of an interesting story. Pony is a Chinese company, but because the US doesn't want Chinese tech to become too deeply embedded in the American economy — and has become increasingly hostile to such companies — it has been readying a clean US subsidiary of the business for sale.
This is what Travis allegedly wants to buy with the help of Uber. And it's particularly noteworthy because it could be an indication that Uber is worried about Waymo and wants to have its own AV unit (which it had previously, but then sold off in an effort to quickly reach profitability).
Here's the south side facing the sea:
And here's a photo of its western edge, including the building's outdoor pool amenity:
The -1 level is boat slips and retail, some of which are still in the process of opening. The fact that they placed the retail where they did stood out to me, because it feels akin to second-floor retail — meaning, it only works in certain places and under certain conditions. Maybe this is one of them.
The ground plane — or at least the level that connects inland — is visually open on all sides, except for the elevator cores and exit stairs coming down from the buildings. This gives you a clear view of the Mediterranean as you approach the district and makes the entire area feel publicly accessible. It's also meant to evoke the image of ships sitting in a dry dock.
We didn't stay in Monaco very long, but this project was the highlight for me. I would have really loved the opportunity to tour inside and get closer to its details.
Leaving Monaco requires some maneuvering if you didn't drive or take the train (which we didn't). Uber is banned within the principality. You can get dropped off in an Uber, but you can't request a car once you're there. This is what you'll see if you open up the app and try:
We were also told that they're very strict about this. If, for example, you get dropped off in an Uber and then try to go off-app for your return, the Uber driver runs the risk of a heavy fine and having their car confiscated for a week. So many drivers don't want to do this unless you're willing to compensate them for the risk.
What you instead need to do is walk to the Monaco-France border, which usually isn't far given the country has a total land area of around 2 square kilometers. As soon as the GPS on your phone signals that you're in France rather than Monaco, cars reappear in the app. And from my experience, the geofencing is accurate within a few meters. It was pretty neat.
In the future, I think a better option might be to road bike over. I saw a number of people doing that yesterday and, boy, it looked like fun.
One thing that I do not do on this blog is provide investment advice. And this post is certainly not that. But here's an idea and thought exercise that relates to urban mobility. Let's assume you own a personal vehicle that is currently valued at US$30k, and that this car is what you use to go about your daily life. Now imagine that you sold this car today, harvested all of the proceeds, and invested them into the following three companies: Uber, Alphabet, and Tesla. If you did this equally, your US$30k would end up as the following (based on today's share prices and if rounded down):
111 shares in Uber ($89.56/share)
49 shares in Alphabet ($201.42/share)
30 shares in Tesla ($329.68/share)
Then, instead of driving yourself around, you'd put the money that you would have normally spent on insurance, gas, and maintenance toward Ubers and Waymos (assuming Waymo is available in your city). Perhaps you even own a parking spot that could be rented out for an extra few hundred dollars each month. Whatever the specifics, let's just assume that what you used to spend to operate and service your car is now being spent on getting around using ride sharing services. It's a wash. So the only difference is that instead of having US$30k tied up in a depreciating asset, you're now part owner of the above three businesses.
This, once again, is not investment advice. I personally don't know how to make sense of Tesla's current valuation. There's a hell of a lot of optimism being priced in. I'm simply picking these three companies as a way to bet on Waymo's autonomous vehicle program (which is currently in the lead), Tesla's robotaxi promises (which, who knows, could actually materialize), and the fact that Uber might still remain the dominant marketplace for rides (though there's already evidence that Waymo is on track to overtake Uber in San Francisco within the next ~8 months).
It's not clear who will be the primary beneficiary of this shifting mobility landscape. Is Tesla right about
Uber's stock has done exceptionally well this year. At the time of writing this post, it's up over 60% year-to-date. But at the same time, it remains unclear to me what the relationship will be between Uber and this brave new world of autonomous vehicles.
I mean, right now, if you're in Phoenix, I'm told you can order a Waymo car through Uber's app. But if you're in San Francisco, Waymo customers must use the Waymo app. It's all bit mirky right now, but Uber is just trying to put "as many cars on Uber's network as possible."
There's also an argument that, for the foreseeable future, ride-hailing networks are going to need some mixture of both human and robot drivers. I get this argument. But beyond the short term, I think there will be strong incentives to completely eliminate human drivers.
Last month, the New York Times announced that Uber is in talks with Travis Kalanick, the company's co-founder who got pushed out 8 years ago, to help him buy autonomous vehicle company Pony.ai.
It's a bit of an interesting story. Pony is a Chinese company, but because the US doesn't want Chinese tech to become too deeply embedded in the American economy — and has become increasingly hostile to such companies — it has been readying a clean US subsidiary of the business for sale.
This is what Travis allegedly wants to buy with the help of Uber. And it's particularly noteworthy because it could be an indication that Uber is worried about Waymo and wants to have its own AV unit (which it had previously, but then sold off in an effort to quickly reach profitability).
) still be needed to manage peak demand loads? Is the asset-heavy approach of owning AV fleets the wrong way to go about things for Waymo? I think it all remains to be seen. But I also think it's clear that autonomous vehicles have arrived and that urban mobility is changing right now, as we speak.
So I think there's a relatively high probability that everyone who owns a personal vehicle would be better off if they did what I am suggesting in this not-investment-advice-don't-do-what-I-write blog post. In other words, if we freed ourselves of the old ways and made some bets on the future. And that's ultimately the purpose of this post. It's so that you and I can come back to it on August 10th, 2030, and see how I did with my prediction. The reminder has been set.
) still be needed to manage peak demand loads? Is the asset-heavy approach of owning AV fleets the wrong way to go about things for Waymo? I think it all remains to be seen. But I also think it's clear that autonomous vehicles have arrived and that urban mobility is changing right now, as we speak.
So I think there's a relatively high probability that everyone who owns a personal vehicle would be better off if they did what I am suggesting in this not-investment-advice-don't-do-what-I-write blog post. In other words, if we freed ourselves of the old ways and made some bets on the future. And that's ultimately the purpose of this post. It's so that you and I can come back to it on August 10th, 2030, and see how I did with my prediction. The reminder has been set.
