Some of you are probably shocked by this headline. But it is true. Here's the chart to prove it:

Toronto is number one. Los Angeles is number two. And New York sits just behind Winnipeg and Calgary. Huh?

The reason this is likely surprising to you is that when most people think of urban density they think of the urban core. And you are correct in thinking that the urban core of New York City is denser than the urban core of Winnipeg.

The difference here is that we are talking about "urban area" (or "population centre" in Canada). This is the continuously built up area around each major city. Think of it as the lit up area that you might see on a nighttime aerial photo.

Urban areas don't care about municipal or other jurisdictional boundaries. And they don't factor rural areas. Urban areas are a measure of continuous urbanization.

So even if you have the densest downtown on the planet, if you have a sprawling low-density urban area surrounding it, you can still end up with a relatively low overall population density. And this is precisely what is happening here with New York.

This is also why there's only so much that you can glean from a blended average like this. Because you can have very different urban forms and very different mobility splits (think New York City vs. Winnipeg), and still end up with somewhat comparable averages.

Chart: New Geography

The New Consumer has just published its 2022 mid-year update. Some of you might remember that I wrote about their inaugural consumer trends report at the end of last year.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see a lot of things returning to their means. Spending on home furnishings, for example, is coming down, whereas luggage and bag sales are up. Home fitness has also come way down as people return to gyms. It's time to leave home.

At the same time, it has become a lot more expensive to leave home, assuming you need to drive. Motor fuel increased 49% year-over-year as of May 2022. It's the CPI category with the biggest change. But even with this, transit ridership has yet to fully rebound. NYC is sitting at around 60%.

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We've talked about this before. If you live in New York City, you're probably about a third as likely to die from a transportation-related accident as compared to the average American. And if you live in Paris, you're probably about a third as likely to die from a transportation-related accident as compared to the average New Yorker.

These stats might feel a bit intuitive to you. Both New York and Paris are big and dense metros with high public transit ridership. And that usually translates into less car accidents. As for the divide between these two cities, Paris is in Europe. It's old. Most of its streets were built before the car had been invented. And all of these things are generally good for pedestrians. Makes sense.

But David Zipper asked a good question today: So what's going on with Canada? Canada is not in Europe (though some might argue that it sits culturally somewhere between the US and Europe). It's not that old. And it generally has a car-oriented landscape just like the US. So why is it that in 2020, Americans were 2.5x more likely than Canadians to die in a car crash? The trend lines are also diverging between these two countries. Between 2010 to 2020, US road deaths increased 19% on a per capita basis, whereas Canada's rate declined by about the same rate, according to David.

Ultimately, we are probably going to need Malcolm Gladwell to write a book about this so that we can really figure out what's going on. But in the interim, David does propose a few possible explanations ranging from Canadians buying slightly smaller vehicles to Canadians being slightly more law-abiding than Americans and so less likely to run people over. But one of the most persuasive explanations for me is that maybe our urban landscapes aren't actually the same.

More than a third of Canadians live in our three biggest cities: Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. And this number would be even higher if you looked at the full urban catchment areas of each. Either way, this is a significantly higher concentration than in the US, where about 13% of Americans live in the metro areas of New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Part of this difference is because the US has almost 9x more people and has many more big cities to choose from. But it doesn't change the fact that, despite our reputed love for things like forests and beavers, Canadians are actually quite urban. And as we have discovered, that's a good thing for pedestrians.

Photo by Jamshed Khedri on Unsplash