There is a nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank based in New York called the Citizens Budget Commission (or CBC). And this week they launched Competitive NYC. The intent is a kind of dashboard that provides insights into NYC's overall competitiveness — specifically its ability to attract and retain both residents and businesses. I won't summarize all of the findings; if you'd like to take a look, you can do that here. But I did want to point out one finding.

Here's a chart showing the top 10 states for people with incomes greater than $1 million:

The number of "millionaires" in New York state increased from 35,802 in 2010 to 69,780 in 2022, but its share of US millionaires declined the most. Previously it was 12.7%, and in 2022 it had dropped to 8.7%. On the other end of the spectrum, the state with the biggest share gain was Florida.

The tracker goes on to suggest that high taxes may be a factor for households moving out of New York City. Here's a chart showing taxes per $1,000 of personal income:

New York state is the highest and is 56% above the US average, whereas Florida is 31% below the average. Florida also has the sunshine thing going for it. This migration trend aligns with what was talked about a lot during the pandemic. Between April 2020 and July 2022, NYC lost nearly half a million residents, a chunk of which went to Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties.

It's a reminder not to take competitiveness for granted, especially when there's a clear trend toward places with warmer weather. People can and will vote with their feet.

Cover photo by Andre Benz on Unsplash; charts from CBCNY

The work of l'Atelier parisien d'urbanisme (or Apur) is right in my wheelhouse. Run by an architect, they are a group that analyzes, documents, and then develops strategies for urban matters impacting Paris and Greater Paris (la Métropole du Grand Paris). For example, last year they published a book called Paris Atlas, which contains 150 original maps and lots of statistics about the city. And this month, they published a note talking about population and demographic trends in the city. Here's a brief summary of this latest report.

As of January 1, 2022, there were 7,115,576 people in Greater Paris:

Between 2016 and 2022, its population grew by about 0.2% per year or about 14,800 people per year. This is slower than the previous reporting period (2011 to 2015). It's also all because of natural births:

When it comes to migration, more people leave the city each year than come to it:

This runs in contrast to a city region like Toronto, where the vast majority of our population growth comes from positive net migration. This is also true of Canada as a whole. Still, Paris is not immune to lower birthrates and a declining average household size:

Another factor impacting population, according to the report, is the decline in principal residences (homes occupied for more than 6 months of the year) and the rise of what the report calls "unoccupied homes", which includes secondary homes and vacation rentals. As of 2021, the number of "unoccupied homes" was estimated at approximately 19.2%:

However, in four arrondissements (1, 6, 7, and 8), the number of homes not used as a principal residence is thought to exceed 30%! This is making it even harder to build enough new homes. For example, between 2015 and 2021, Paris built approximately 30,300 new homes. (Reminder, the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area completed about that many in one year last year.) But at the same time, the city counted 14,600 fewer principal residences. This is, I guess, what happens when you're one of the most visited cities in the world.

To end, I'll leave you all with this population density map:

The darkest areas represent more than 250 people per hectare. That works out to more than 25,000 people per square kilometer (just divide the above numbers by 0.01). At the same time, between 2016 and 2022, the population of Paris proper (not Greater Paris) decreased by an average of 12,800 people per year. This is in comparison to an average decrease of 11,900 people per year for the period of 2011 to 2016. As is the case in many/most cities, Paris' population growth is happening largely in the suburbs and in the outskirts.

Cover photo by JOHN TOWNER on Unsplash

One of the ways to try and keep tabs on where people are moving is to look at the number of permanent address changes. Another way is to look at the number of one-way U-Haul trucks that enter versus leave a particular state. And it turns out that if you're U-Haul, you do care to track where all of your trucks are going. Each year in the United States there are about 2 million one-way truck transactions.

Looking at the data from 2020, the top inbound destinations -- that is, the states that had the largest net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks -- were (1) Tennessee, (2) Texas, and (3) Florida. This is a big jump for Tennessee as it was 12th in 2019. Texas and Florida, on the other hand, were similarly in the top three last year. In last place on this list is California, meaning that it had the largest net loss of one-way U-Haul trucks leaving the state.

Overall, this data continues to reinforce a shift that is taking place toward more affordable housing markets, such as those in the southern United States.

For the full U-Haul article, click here.

Photo by Tanner Boriack on Unsplash