Here's some unsurprising but important news via Urbanation:
New condominium apartment sales last year totalled 4,590 homes. This is a 78% decline compared to the latest 10-year average of 20,835 homes, and the slowest year for new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GHTA) since 1996. See above chart.
Only 802 new condominium apartments were sold in Q4-2024.
Six projects launched in Q4-2024, totalling 1,829 homes, of which only 10% were sold. A total of 1,506 new condominium apartments started construction during this same quarter.
A total of 29,800 condominium homes were completed in 2024 -- a record. This year, 30,793 homes are expected to complete, which if it happens, will create another new record.
In total, 78,742 new condominium homes are currently under construction across the GTHA, as of Q4-2024.
This may seem like a lot. But 30k of these homes are expected to complete and occupy this year. That leaves around 48k under construction, plus whatever new starts end up happening in 2025. So as Shaun Hildebrand points out in the above release, at some point around 2026-2027, we are going to see a dramatic fall off in completions and new housing supply.
Even if starts magically ramped up this year (which would be unexpected), there would still be a period of relatively low completions that would need to work its way through the system. Development is, by nature, excruciatingly slow to respond to changes in demand. There's always a lag. So overall housing supply is something we're paying close attention to right now as we execute on our real estate strategies.
Chart via Urbanation
