As most of you know, the Toronto housing market has shifted its attention from condominiums to rentals. This is out of necessity. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the GTA saw approximately 71,392 condominium apartments leased (counting only those leased through MLS) in 2025.
Quarter | Units Leased | Y-o-Y Change |
Q1 2025 | 14,797 | +16.7% |
Q2 2025 | 20,417 | +16.6% |
Q3 2025 | 22,491 | +20.2% |
Q4 2025 | 13,687 | +16.0% |
Total | 71,392 |
These increases are a result of having no other option. As demand has waned for new condominiums, a greater number of investors have decided to rent out their new condos. If you're a tenant looking for a new home to rent, this has been good news.
At the same time, Urbanation just reported that a total of 9,821 purpose-built rental apartments started construction in 2025, representing a 42% increase from the year prior. This is the highest annual total since the 1970s.
At year-end, this resulted in a total of 27,815 purpose-built rental apartments under construction in the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area. And like individual condominium buyers, developers are doing this because there is, in most cases, no other option.
But while these may seem like large numbers, it's important to keep in mind that new condominium completions are currently on a downtrend toward zero completions in the coming years (for all intents and purposes).
Even with rental starts approaching 10,000 units per year, it's not enough to replace the condominium supply that is starting to evaporate. Based on current sales and starts, 2029 looks to be the year where we'll hit our housing supply bottom.
The turning point for the Toronto housing market, including pre-construction condominiums, was, I would say, in the spring/summer of 2022. This is when the market turned and sentiment changed dramatically. What that means is that we are about to enter year three of this downturn. Time flies when you're grinding away. How long it lasts is anyone's guess, but new sales and completions are a good place to look.
Last year, the GTHA saw approximately 29,800 condominium homes complete according to Urbanation. This is slightly above Zonda's estimate of 27,228. Whatever the exact number, it was a high number of completions. And this year, the forecast is for something similar. But given how precipitously new home sales have fallen off, it's only a matter of time before completions do the same.
Here's what Zonda Urban is currently forecasting:
Here's some unsurprising but important news via Urbanation:
New condominium apartment sales last year totalled 4,590 homes. This is a 78% decline compared to the latest 10-year average of 20,835 homes, and the slowest year for new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GHTA) since 1996. See above chart.
Only 802 new condominium apartments were sold in Q4-2024.
Six projects launched in Q4-2024, totalling 1,829 homes, of which only 10% were sold. A total of 1,506 new condominium apartments started construction during this same quarter.
A total of 29,800 condominium homes were completed in 2024 -- a record. This year, 30,793 homes are expected to complete, which if it happens, will create another new record.
In total, 78,742 new condominium homes are currently under construction across the GTHA, as of Q4-2024.
This may seem like a lot. But 30k of these homes are expected to complete and occupy this year. That leaves around 48k under construction, plus whatever new starts end up happening in 2025. So as Shaun Hildebrand points out in the above release, at some point around 2026-2027, we are going to see a dramatic fall off in completions and new housing supply.
Even if starts magically ramped up this year (which would be unexpected), there would still be a period of relatively low completions that would need to work its way through the system. Development is, by nature, excruciatingly slow to respond to changes in demand. There's always a lag. So overall housing supply is something we're paying close attention to right now as we execute on our real estate strategies.
Chart via Urbanation
As most of you know, the Toronto housing market has shifted its attention from condominiums to rentals. This is out of necessity. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the GTA saw approximately 71,392 condominium apartments leased (counting only those leased through MLS) in 2025.
Quarter | Units Leased | Y-o-Y Change |
Q1 2025 | 14,797 | +16.7% |
Q2 2025 | 20,417 | +16.6% |
Q3 2025 | 22,491 | +20.2% |
Q4 2025 | 13,687 | +16.0% |
Total | 71,392 |
These increases are a result of having no other option. As demand has waned for new condominiums, a greater number of investors have decided to rent out their new condos. If you're a tenant looking for a new home to rent, this has been good news.
At the same time, Urbanation just reported that a total of 9,821 purpose-built rental apartments started construction in 2025, representing a 42% increase from the year prior. This is the highest annual total since the 1970s.
At year-end, this resulted in a total of 27,815 purpose-built rental apartments under construction in the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area. And like individual condominium buyers, developers are doing this because there is, in most cases, no other option.
But while these may seem like large numbers, it's important to keep in mind that new condominium completions are currently on a downtrend toward zero completions in the coming years (for all intents and purposes).
Even with rental starts approaching 10,000 units per year, it's not enough to replace the condominium supply that is starting to evaporate. Based on current sales and starts, 2029 looks to be the year where we'll hit our housing supply bottom.
The turning point for the Toronto housing market, including pre-construction condominiums, was, I would say, in the spring/summer of 2022. This is when the market turned and sentiment changed dramatically. What that means is that we are about to enter year three of this downturn. Time flies when you're grinding away. How long it lasts is anyone's guess, but new sales and completions are a good place to look.
Last year, the GTHA saw approximately 29,800 condominium homes complete according to Urbanation. This is slightly above Zonda's estimate of 27,228. Whatever the exact number, it was a high number of completions. And this year, the forecast is for something similar. But given how precipitously new home sales have fallen off, it's only a matter of time before completions do the same.
Here's what Zonda Urban is currently forecasting:
Here's some unsurprising but important news via Urbanation:
New condominium apartment sales last year totalled 4,590 homes. This is a 78% decline compared to the latest 10-year average of 20,835 homes, and the slowest year for new condo sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GHTA) since 1996. See above chart.
Only 802 new condominium apartments were sold in Q4-2024.
Six projects launched in Q4-2024, totalling 1,829 homes, of which only 10% were sold. A total of 1,506 new condominium apartments started construction during this same quarter.
A total of 29,800 condominium homes were completed in 2024 -- a record. This year, 30,793 homes are expected to complete, which if it happens, will create another new record.
In total, 78,742 new condominium homes are currently under construction across the GTHA, as of Q4-2024.
This may seem like a lot. But 30k of these homes are expected to complete and occupy this year. That leaves around 48k under construction, plus whatever new starts end up happening in 2025. So as Shaun Hildebrand points out in the above release, at some point around 2026-2027, we are going to see a dramatic fall off in completions and new housing supply.
Even if starts magically ramped up this year (which would be unexpected), there would still be a period of relatively low completions that would need to work its way through the system. Development is, by nature, excruciatingly slow to respond to changes in demand. There's always a lag. So overall housing supply is something we're paying close attention to right now as we execute on our real estate strategies.
Chart via Urbanation
They are expecting 2027-2028 to be fairly normal. The above figures would be just under the 10-year average. But then completions fall off a cliff starting in 2029 and go down to basically nothing in 2030 — 411 condominium homes could be a single project!
My sense is that this cliff is going to occur earlier. 2027 will be five years since the market turned. That's enough time for many, if not most, pre-sales to get through construction. It's also important to point out the obvious fact that some large percentage of the above completions need to be categorized as new rental housing. So this looming housing shortage will impact both buyers and renters.
Cover photo by Patrick Tomasso on Unsplash
They are expecting 2027-2028 to be fairly normal. The above figures would be just under the 10-year average. But then completions fall off a cliff starting in 2029 and go down to basically nothing in 2030 — 411 condominium homes could be a single project!
My sense is that this cliff is going to occur earlier. 2027 will be five years since the market turned. That's enough time for many, if not most, pre-sales to get through construction. It's also important to point out the obvious fact that some large percentage of the above completions need to be categorized as new rental housing. So this looming housing shortage will impact both buyers and renters.
Cover photo by Patrick Tomasso on Unsplash
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