According to recent data from CMHC via the Globe and Mail, here's (at least part of) the housing situation in Vancouver and Toronto:
Metro Vancouver has 4,919 newly built unsold homes on the market (including houses, duplexes, row houses, and condominiums).
Of this total, 3,195 are unsold condominiums. All of these figures exclude homes that were sold but where the buyers failed to close.
Across Metro Vancouver, 37% of the unsold condominium inventory is priced above $1 million.
In the city of Vancouver proper, 81% of the unsold condominium inventory is above $1 million, with more than 14% priced above $3 million.
In the Greater Toronto Area, there are only 701 newly built unsold units on the market, and in the city of Toronto, 61% of these are priced at or above $1 million.
Initially, the 701 figure seemed low to me, but the way I interpret this "unsold" metric is that it's strictly a best attempt at a moment-in-time snapshot of developer inventory in newly completed projects that have never been subject to a purchase agreement.
Missing from these figures are unsold homes currently under construction, and recently closed homes that have never been occupied and are now on the resale market or are simply sitting empty. Again, if a buyer failed to close, these homes would not show up in the CMHC figures.
It also doesn't include homes in the pre-sale phase. However, I think this supply is mostly irrelevant because if the developer doesn't get to construction then that inventory quickly disappears from the market. It's not sitting there needing to be absorbed (though we developers would love for it to be).
The Globe and Mail article talks about how there are over 40,000 housing units that have been approved in Metro Vancouver but have not yet proceeded to construction, and that "newly built condos in Vancouver are too pricey to sell." But the salient question is one of product-market fit: What housing do customers actually want, and can afford, today?
As we have talked about many times before on the blog, I think we need to view this moment in time as an opportunity to reset our housing markets. In other words, it's an opportunity to look at how we regulate and tax new housing, and at what and how we build, all with the goal of better serving the housing needs of Canadians.
My specific view is twofold: We need to cut the regulatory fat around delivering new homes, and we need to better optimize for medium-density housing.
Multiplexes, as they are called around here, are one of the few housing types that kind of work in Toronto today. According to a recent Globe and Mail article by John Lorinc, the city has issued 2,629 building permits for multiplexes since 2023, representing 4,880 net new homes.
This is not very much for a city of our size, but this is a new type, and I would bet you two things: that this number will increase and that the city will continue to make it easier to build fine-grained, urban infill housing.
The great opportunity right now is exactly what architect Craig Race says in the article: “You can’t find 1,500-square-foot, three-bedroom units anywhere other than in multiplexes. The smaller units are the most affordable in the city because the typology costs so much less than mid-rise or high-rise buildings.”
However, the article also talks about the "festival of doors" that comes with this housing type. This is because each home typically has its own dedicated entry door from grade. Meaning, if you're building a sixplex, you're going to have at least six doors sprinkled across the various elevations.
In some ways, this is a desirable design outcome. Each home is now 100% efficient (rentable area divided by gross construction area), as there are no common areas. I think many residents also appreciate having their own dedicated entrances.
But on the flip side, an entry door generally equals another staircase. So, from an overall building efficiency standpoint, there are more effective ways to unlock more housing on every infill lot — namely through the adoption of single-egress stair buildings.
As soon as this becomes a feasible as-of-right option, expect to see an increase in both the quantity and quality of new small-scale infill housing in Toronto.
Cover photo by White.Rainforest ™️︎ ∙ 易雨白林. on Unsplash
The Missing Middle Initiative just released its latest Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe Housing Report Card. If you'd like to download a copy and see the generally abysmal grades, there's a link at the bottom of this page. But here are the high-level findings (based on Q4-2025 data):
Housing starts are down 34% year-over-year across the 34 municipalities covered in the report.
Condominium starts, in particular, are down over 50% year-over-year.
Pre-construction sales, which are a precursor to housing starts, are down 89% for condominiums and 58% for ground-oriented houses.
The only exception to the above is purpose-built rental starts, which increased 39% year-over-year. But this increase doesn't come close to offsetting the declines seen in both condominiums and low-rise housing.
Once again, we are reminded of the looming housing shortage that, I think, could be felt as soon as next year. New construction is inherently slow to respond to market changes, and, as of right now, the ship is clearly headed toward almost no new supply. For that to change, we will almost certainly need to see pre-construction sales return.
Cover photo by Dmitry Gerasimenko on Unsplash