My friend Chris Spoke sent me this article yesterday. It's by Paul Stanton (at Thesis Driven), and it's about "why the next generation of real estate fund managers will be built on video reels and newsletters." As someone who has been writing a personal blog-slash-newsletter for the last 13+ years (though largely focused on real estate and cities), this post really resonated with me. I wish I could say that I was early and that it brought me great riches, but sadly, that is not the case.

Regardless, what all of this is getting at is the value of parasocial relationships:

A parasocial relationship is a one-sided connection where a person feels they know and have a bond with a public figure (celebrity, influencer, fictional character) who is unaware of their existence, often stemming from media exposure like TV, social media, or podcasts.

I wouldn't call myself a public figure, but a daily blog does inherently foster parasocial relationships. Generally, though, the real estate industry has been slow to adopt new media. The prevailing thought has been that social media is good for selling stuff like fashion, but not appropriate for syndicating large and serious real estate deals. I've even heard some people argue that a strong social media presence is probably inversely correlated with actual real estate performance.

This is true of the grifters that Paul talks about in his article. These are the people posing in front of fancy cars or on a private jet, claiming that they can 10x your money using some dead-simple real estate strategy. They cannot. These people are not in the real estate business. But the marketing strategy clearly does work for raising capital, which is why you now have accomplished people who actually know real estate and finance becoming influencers:

Top executives of Wall Street’s largest private equity firms have recently joined the social media influencer ecosystem—perhaps none more so than Jon Gray, President and COO of Blackstone.  

Gray has become known for his candid videos filmed in Central Park during morning runs, sharing his views on recent shifts in the capital markets, macro events and even celebrity gossip—all with a sunny and sometimes self-deprecating disposition.  

I’ve watched many of these videos, and I now know (or, Blackstone has successfully planted in my brain) that Jon is exactly who I’d want running a massive pool of long-term capital: measured, self-aware, allergic to hype. Blackstone no longer feels like a faceless capital machine.

The fact that Jon Gray is doing this should give everyone in our industry the confidence that it's more than okay to be a real estate social media influencer. In fact, it's the name of the game today, even for the most sophisticated companies with long and proven track records, like Blackstone. There's nothing to be shy about. People do not want to follow faceless companies. They want to follow humans. So, be a human.

I was thinking about this very topic over the holidays, and I ultimately landed on it needing to become a bigger part of what I do in 2026. I will obviously continue to write this daily blog, but I want to be better at putting myself out there in other ways, creating more video content, and building up Globizen's overall brand as a city-builder committed to creating better places.

We have started by posting regular (almost daily) content to Instagram (Globizen & Parkview Mountain House), but there's more we want to do. The first obstacle is getting over the fear of what people might think if I take candid videos of myself running in Central Park (people couldn't care less). And the second obstacle is time. It's a lot of work. But building a company and raising capital have always been a lot of work.

I don't remember signing up for Thesis Driven's newsletter, but I'm on it, and it does sound like something I would do. Their latest post, the first of this year by Brad Hargreaves, is called "Seven Real Estate Predictions for 2026." And I'd like to draw your attention to the last one. Here it is verbatim:

The word “sponsor” has historically implied episodic activity: raise capital, do a deal, return capital, repeat. That framing made sense when real estate investing was primarily about financial engineering and asset selection.

It makes far less sense in a world where alpha increasingly comes from operations.

By 2026, I think the most sophisticated real estate operators will stop being thought of—and thinking of themselves—as sponsors at all. They will be platforms. And platforms are underwritten differently.

Rather than being evaluated solely on IRRs and realized multiples, these businesses will increasingly be assessed through a private equity lens: EBITDA generation, revenue streams, margin stability, customer (tenant) retention, technology leverage, scalability of systems, and durability of management teams. Deal performance will still matter, but as proof points—not as the whole story.

The consequences? Platform economics reward longer-term thinking, reinvestment, and organizational maturity. They also open the door to entirely different capital partners, exit paths, and valuation frameworks that look a lot more like growth equity than traditional real estate promote structures.

This really resonates with me. Sponsor, promoter, and developer — these names have historically reflected the entrepreneurial and deal-specific nature of real estate. It's also one of the reasons why project brands typically overshadow developer brands; the focus is on that one deal.

A good deal is a good deal. We all get that. Sometimes a single deal is all that is needed to change your life. But as a general rule, I am much more interested in longer-term thinking, an approach that compounds over time, the opportunity to continually refine a craft, and the growth of brand equity.

In Brad's words, that is "platform over sponsor."

Cover photo by Fabio Sasso on Unsplash

The best part about making predictions for a year ahead is that at the end of the year you get to look back with humility on what you were thinking at the time and realize how much you missed and how different things turned out.

So, what might happen in 2026?

• Condominium development in Toronto: I think 2026 will be an important turning point year. If I keep saying this, at some point I'll be right, right? 2026 is the first year where we will start to see new condominium completions from the last cycle fall off significantly. Last year (2025), we were projecting nearly 32,000 condominium home completions. This year, it's projected to drop to ~17,487, with 2027 falling off even further as we head to almost no new supply (based on the current pipeline). What I think this means is that the first half of 2026 will still be painful as the market absorbs new inventory and the inventory from 2025 (including unsold units, units in default, and other scenarios), but that things will start to stabilize and feel better toward the end of 2026 and into 2027. New supply will now be delivering below the 10-year average for the first time in many years.

• Purpose-built rental development in Toronto: The story since the condominium market turned in 2022 has been the flip to rental. But not all developers and sites can make this switch and, as I have argued before, the numbers suggest that it won't be enough to offset our dwindling new condominium supply. That said, I think rental rates will remain soft throughout 2026. The supply crunch we're headed toward will need a bit more time to be felt by the market. In the meantime, we will see the highly-amenitized purpose-built rental model fail. The strategy of using over-the-top amenities to drive high rents will finally fall apart in the current market environment. In its place will be a flight to value: boring rental models that offer a quality housing experience at reasonable prices.

• Boutique end-user projects: In markets like Toronto and Vancouver, where the development landscape remains unfavourable, we will see a continued focus on smaller projects and projects catering exclusively to end-users. This demand segment is the most resilient and this re-orientation will help the next development cycle start on more solid footing.

• Foreign buyer ban: The Canadian federal government will relax the foreign buyer ban (which is set to expire on January 1, 2027) and allow foreigners to buy pre-construction homes. There are already rumblings about this so I acknowledge this isn't that bold a prediction. But beyond just relaxing the ban, I think government will start actively courting foreign capital to help solve our housing needs.

• AI bubble: 2026 will be the year that the AI bubble bursts. Not because AI isn't powerful tech that will continue to change the world, but because we are, in the words of investor Howard Marks, in an "inflection bubble." This is different from a fake bubble like Tulip Mania where there was ultimately no underlying reason for tulips to be valued so highly. An inflection bubble is where we get the direction right (AI is a big deal), but the magnitude wrong (shit, we overspent on CapEx). Not every AI company can and will survive. There will only be a select few once the dust settles. And since AI seems to be what's driving the market these days, I think the market will close the end of this year down (measured as the performance of the S&P 500).

• Continued AI adoption: That said, AI will continue to change the way we all live and work. While this is going to put some people out of a job, my bias is an optimistic one in that new technologies tend to create new opportunities and generally grow the overall economy. However, I think that at least two enormous internet-type shifts are underway. One, AI is creating a massive productivity leverage for the people and firms that know how to harness it and, two, the backend of the global financial market is moving "onchain." These are profound shifts that I, unfortunately, think will lead to even more social and political division in the short term. A government somewhere in the world will respond with a universal basic income.

• AI bubble impact on real estate: An AI bubble bursting will generally help the real estate market as investors look for returns somewhere else, with the exception of the data center market. It will also create downward pressure on interest rates (which, in the US, remain the highest they have been since the Great Recession in 2008). As we know, lower rates help boost the values of highly-levered assets like real estate.

• AR/VR/AI for design and construction coordination: I was blown away the first time I tried Apple Vision Pro. It's a magical experience. But it has failed as a consumer product and who knows what Apple will launch next. Regardless, this year we will see clear use cases emerge for AR, VR, and smart glasses. I'd like to see the problems of design and construction coordination get immediately solved because they're massive and costly and they have yet to be solved.

• Mainstream tokenization: In yesterday's post, I spoke about the lack of a breakout consumer-facing web3 app in 2025 (with honourable mention going to the Base app). But perhaps one of the big stories of last year was stablecoins entering the mainstream. Most people now agree they have achieved product-market fit. This is crypto solving real problems (cheap/fast cross-border remittances, payments, etc) with users not needing to think or care about the underlying blockchain technology. In 2026, we will see a noteworthy office building or apartment building get tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain.

• Autonomous vehicles: Last year, I predicted that autonomous vehicles were going to have a year, and it certainly felt that way. This year will be the first year that I ride in one. I came close on a layover in San Francisco in December. I considered leaving the airport and taking one to Apple Park. But I would have been cutting it too close. In 2026, we will see an insurer refuse to cover a human driver for the first time, marking a clear global shift toward autonomy. Already, none of us should be driving cars anymore looking at current safety data.

• Polycentric world: Some have argued that 2025 marked the end of globalization. I'm not sure that is accurate. I think it marked the end of the US-led post-war world order and the acceleration of a more polycentric world order. It was the start of greater US insularity. In 2026, Canada will start to see the benefits of this shift. What it is doing is shaking us out of complacency and forcing us to look east to Europe and west to Asia, as opposed to just south to the US.

What are your predictions for the year ahead?