Rental apartment completions in the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA) are expected to exceed condo completions for the first time in a very long time starting in 2028. But what does this mean for the overall market, and is it actually going to be enough new housing? Let's look at some of the numbers.
Last year, the GTHA recorded 29,671 new condo completions. This was some sort of a record. This year, condo completions are projected to total around 31,396 homes. Even higher. But then completions start to fall off, with 17,487 homes scheduled for completion in 2026. By 2029, this number is expected to be close to 1,000. So let's call it zero for argument's sake.
If we are to crudely assume that 50% of these new condominiums ultimately make it to the secondary condo rental market, then we are expecting nearly 16,000 condo rentals this year, just under 9,000 condo rentals in 2026, and ultimately no new condo rentals by around 2029 (or some number close to it).
Now let's consider the purpose-built rental side of the equation.
The 10-year average for purpose-built rental apartment starts in the GTHA is only 2,819 homes. This is a far cry from the volume of rental housing that we delivered in the 60s and 70s. Of course, with the new condominium market largely shut off, there's renewed interest in building purpose-built rentals.
In 2024, purpose-built rental apartment completions totalled 5,537 homes. And in the first half of this year, 3,156 homes reached the occupancy stage. Extrapolating out, I'm guessing that puts us somewhere around 6,000 new purpose-built rental apartment homes by the end of 2025.
If we pause and think about only 2025, we're on track to deliver roughly 37,000 new condo/rental apartments and ~22,000 new rental homes (again assuming 50% of the new condominiums become secondary rentals). I view this as our peak supply year for this cycle.
There's a lot of talk about a "record" number of purpose-built rental apartments now under construction, and while it is true that the numbers are elevated compared to the latest 10-year average, it is not a long-term record compared to the 60s and 70s and, more importantly, it is not enough to offset our dwindling new condominium supply.
Even if purpose-built rental completions spiked to 8,000 or even 10,000 new homes next year, we are still going to see a drop in new rentals and new housing overall in the GTHA. 2026 is the turning point year where new supply turns south. And it's going to keep going south until probably 2029, which is when I believe we will see supply bottom out.
Nothing in this post should be construed as investment or development advice, but here's the way I'm thinking about it:
2025: ~37,000 new condominium/apartment homes (peak supply year resulting from the pandemic boom)
2026: ~25,000 new homes (supply begins its decline)
2027: ~18,000 new homes
2028: ~10,000 to 13,000 new homes
2029: ~8,000 to 10,000 new homes (supply bottom)
I have no idea what will happen with interest rates, immigration, investor sentiment, and the countless other factors that impact a housing market, but even if things started to turn around next year, it would be mostly impossible to avoid the housing supply bottom that I believe we have coming in 2029. Buildings take a long time to build.
Conclusion: I think that 2026 will prove to be an excellent year to buy assets (land, unsold inventory, IPP, and so on), and that 2028 onward will be an excellent time to be delivering new homes. By then, we should be dramatically undersupplying the market. It doesn't feel that way today, but eventually the bill from our frozen development market will come due.
Cover photo by Adam Vradenburg on Unsplash

In Chinese culture, certain numbers — like 4 — are generally considered unlucky because of how they sound. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese, but as I understand it, 4 sounds similar to "death." And this is even more the case in Cantonese.
Four sounds exactly like death, fourteen sounds like "definitely die," and forty-four is the equivalent of "die, certainly die." (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) It is for this reason that in certain real estate markets, and in particular Cantonese-speaking markets like Hong Kong, 4-related numbers are often avoided whenever possible.
This can also be the case in other markets. Before we launched sales for One Delisle, the team made the decision to be mindful of this superstition and skip floors 4, 14, and 44. The result is that the homes on floor 4 became suite 501, 502, 503, and so on, and the building itself went from having 44 floors to 47 floors.
We did this so that nobody would be buying on the "die, certainly die" floor, and so from a marketing perspective, I think these strategies can make a lot of sense.
But what I would also say is that, from a development perspective, you should avoid this whenever possible. It adds coordination complexity. What we saw happening early on was that someone would say suite 501, and then you'd have someone else question whether they were talking about the suite on architectural/construction/legal level 5 or the suite on marketing level 5.
To solve this, we had to be extremely draconian about how levels and suite numbers were allowed to be communicated. Firstly, there's no such thing as a "legal" suite number. Suite numbers are purely a marketing thing — a number that goes on a front door. The legal description of a condominium suite involves a legal level and a legal unit.
So what we did was call a meeting and tell everyone the following: Any and all communication regarding suites needs to include the legal level, legal unit, and suite number, and failure to use all three numbers means you will be liable for any mistakes. We then updated the drawings to reflect this nomenclature.
Building buildings requires some assholes.
My first boss used to tell me that development is the closest thing to being in the military. Never having been in the military, I can't say whether this is accurate or not, but it should give you an indication of what it can feel like to build. Sometimes skipping floors is just what you need to do. But if you can avoid it, it's one less thing you need to be an ass about.

When I was in Miami at the end of last year for the Elevate real estate conference, I was given the impression that every new development project has a luxury brand associated with it and that buyers from all over the world still have an insatiable demand for the city. The Toronto developers in the room had no choice but to commiserate amongst each other and make up excuses for why abundant sunshine and low taxes couldn't possibly be that nice.
But things seem to be changing quickly in Miami. I am seeing reports that the condominium market continues to soften and that unsold inventory is starting to accumulate. This seems to be happening for a bunch of reasons: lots of supply, relatively high interest rates, higher insurance costs (due to climate things), more stringent reserve funding requirements (following the tragic collapse of the Surfside tower), and perhaps even the hostile environment that the US is now creating for foreigners.
I don't have clear data for the pre-construction side of the market (like I do for Toronto), but typically you need a strong resale market to support new development. And that's because pre-construction pricing tends to be higher than resale pricing. If the latter is softening, then the value proposition for something new is weakened. On top of all this, there's right now a
Rental apartment completions in the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA) are expected to exceed condo completions for the first time in a very long time starting in 2028. But what does this mean for the overall market, and is it actually going to be enough new housing? Let's look at some of the numbers.
Last year, the GTHA recorded 29,671 new condo completions. This was some sort of a record. This year, condo completions are projected to total around 31,396 homes. Even higher. But then completions start to fall off, with 17,487 homes scheduled for completion in 2026. By 2029, this number is expected to be close to 1,000. So let's call it zero for argument's sake.
If we are to crudely assume that 50% of these new condominiums ultimately make it to the secondary condo rental market, then we are expecting nearly 16,000 condo rentals this year, just under 9,000 condo rentals in 2026, and ultimately no new condo rentals by around 2029 (or some number close to it).
Now let's consider the purpose-built rental side of the equation.
The 10-year average for purpose-built rental apartment starts in the GTHA is only 2,819 homes. This is a far cry from the volume of rental housing that we delivered in the 60s and 70s. Of course, with the new condominium market largely shut off, there's renewed interest in building purpose-built rentals.
In 2024, purpose-built rental apartment completions totalled 5,537 homes. And in the first half of this year, 3,156 homes reached the occupancy stage. Extrapolating out, I'm guessing that puts us somewhere around 6,000 new purpose-built rental apartment homes by the end of 2025.
If we pause and think about only 2025, we're on track to deliver roughly 37,000 new condo/rental apartments and ~22,000 new rental homes (again assuming 50% of the new condominiums become secondary rentals). I view this as our peak supply year for this cycle.
There's a lot of talk about a "record" number of purpose-built rental apartments now under construction, and while it is true that the numbers are elevated compared to the latest 10-year average, it is not a long-term record compared to the 60s and 70s and, more importantly, it is not enough to offset our dwindling new condominium supply.
Even if purpose-built rental completions spiked to 8,000 or even 10,000 new homes next year, we are still going to see a drop in new rentals and new housing overall in the GTHA. 2026 is the turning point year where new supply turns south. And it's going to keep going south until probably 2029, which is when I believe we will see supply bottom out.
Nothing in this post should be construed as investment or development advice, but here's the way I'm thinking about it:
2025: ~37,000 new condominium/apartment homes (peak supply year resulting from the pandemic boom)
2026: ~25,000 new homes (supply begins its decline)
2027: ~18,000 new homes
2028: ~10,000 to 13,000 new homes
2029: ~8,000 to 10,000 new homes (supply bottom)
I have no idea what will happen with interest rates, immigration, investor sentiment, and the countless other factors that impact a housing market, but even if things started to turn around next year, it would be mostly impossible to avoid the housing supply bottom that I believe we have coming in 2029. Buildings take a long time to build.
Conclusion: I think that 2026 will prove to be an excellent year to buy assets (land, unsold inventory, IPP, and so on), and that 2028 onward will be an excellent time to be delivering new homes. By then, we should be dramatically undersupplying the market. It doesn't feel that way today, but eventually the bill from our frozen development market will come due.
Cover photo by Adam Vradenburg on Unsplash

In Chinese culture, certain numbers — like 4 — are generally considered unlucky because of how they sound. I don't speak Mandarin or Cantonese, but as I understand it, 4 sounds similar to "death." And this is even more the case in Cantonese.
Four sounds exactly like death, fourteen sounds like "definitely die," and forty-four is the equivalent of "die, certainly die." (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) It is for this reason that in certain real estate markets, and in particular Cantonese-speaking markets like Hong Kong, 4-related numbers are often avoided whenever possible.
This can also be the case in other markets. Before we launched sales for One Delisle, the team made the decision to be mindful of this superstition and skip floors 4, 14, and 44. The result is that the homes on floor 4 became suite 501, 502, 503, and so on, and the building itself went from having 44 floors to 47 floors.
We did this so that nobody would be buying on the "die, certainly die" floor, and so from a marketing perspective, I think these strategies can make a lot of sense.
But what I would also say is that, from a development perspective, you should avoid this whenever possible. It adds coordination complexity. What we saw happening early on was that someone would say suite 501, and then you'd have someone else question whether they were talking about the suite on architectural/construction/legal level 5 or the suite on marketing level 5.
To solve this, we had to be extremely draconian about how levels and suite numbers were allowed to be communicated. Firstly, there's no such thing as a "legal" suite number. Suite numbers are purely a marketing thing — a number that goes on a front door. The legal description of a condominium suite involves a legal level and a legal unit.
So what we did was call a meeting and tell everyone the following: Any and all communication regarding suites needs to include the legal level, legal unit, and suite number, and failure to use all three numbers means you will be liable for any mistakes. We then updated the drawings to reflect this nomenclature.
Building buildings requires some assholes.
My first boss used to tell me that development is the closest thing to being in the military. Never having been in the military, I can't say whether this is accurate or not, but it should give you an indication of what it can feel like to build. Sometimes skipping floors is just what you need to do. But if you can avoid it, it's one less thing you need to be an ass about.

When I was in Miami at the end of last year for the Elevate real estate conference, I was given the impression that every new development project has a luxury brand associated with it and that buyers from all over the world still have an insatiable demand for the city. The Toronto developers in the room had no choice but to commiserate amongst each other and make up excuses for why abundant sunshine and low taxes couldn't possibly be that nice.
But things seem to be changing quickly in Miami. I am seeing reports that the condominium market continues to soften and that unsold inventory is starting to accumulate. This seems to be happening for a bunch of reasons: lots of supply, relatively high interest rates, higher insurance costs (due to climate things), more stringent reserve funding requirements (following the tragic collapse of the Surfside tower), and perhaps even the hostile environment that the US is now creating for foreigners.
I don't have clear data for the pre-construction side of the market (like I do for Toronto), but typically you need a strong resale market to support new development. And that's because pre-construction pricing tends to be higher than resale pricing. If the latter is softening, then the value proposition for something new is weakened. On top of all this, there's right now a
Cover photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash
So it's easy to be bearish.
If any of you have any direct insights on the South Florida market, please leave a comment below.
Cover photo by Tomas Lundahl on Unsplash
Cover photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash
So it's easy to be bearish.
If any of you have any direct insights on the South Florida market, please leave a comment below.
Cover photo by Tomas Lundahl on Unsplash
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