Now that the results from Paris' first round of municipal elections are in, I thought I would do a follow-up to my post from a few days ago (which was mostly about bicycles). The second and final round happens this weekend, but here's what we've learned so far:

Emmanuel Grégoire (Union of the Left) is in the lead with 37.98% of the vote:

And Rachida Dati (Union of the Right) is in second with 25.46% of the vote:

What is not unexpected, but super interesting nonetheless, is the clear divide between the west and east within Paris proper. The west voted right, and the east voted left.

Here in Toronto, our voting maps typically exhibit a semi-clear divide between "Old Toronto" and the inner suburbs. For example, these are the results from our 2023 mayoral by-election:

Conveniently, it is a divide that loosely tracks the city's built form. If you live in the oldest parts of the city, where transit usage is higher and there's rail in the middle of the street, there's a higher probability that you voted for Chow. The inner suburbs, on the other hand, tended to vote for Bailão.

In the case of Paris, there isn't the same built form contrast. This is not an urban-suburban divide; it's a socio-economic divide. The western arrondissements have historically been the wealthiest areas of Paris (for a variety of reasons), and that continually appears in the voting patterns.

It also shows up in the modal splits. The western arrondissements tend to have higher car ownership rates compared to the east. These basic facts are interesting because Paris represents more of a controlled urban experiment, in contrast to Toronto's dense downtown and otherwise generally low-rise built form.

But in the end, I'm not sure the political mappings of Paris and Toronto are all that different. If you look closely at Toronto's 2023 by-election map, you'll see that the wealthiest pockets of the city voted exactly as you would expect. Turns out, bank balances may matter more than built form.

Cover photo by Maximilian Zahn on Unsplash

The number of pedestrians killed in the US each year has increased 78% since 2009:

This comes after decades of steady decline, causing many to wonder: What the hell is going on?

Brian Potter of Construction Physics recently tried to answer this question, here. Perhaps the two most common theories are that (1) bigger cars have become more popular (and bigger cars are more deadly to pedestrians), and (2) people are increasingly distracted by smartphones.

In his view, the SUV theory is maybe supportable, but the evidence is mixed. Pedestrian deaths involving smaller cars like Honda Civics are also up substantially. So it doesn’t seem to be just that.

As for the smartphone theory, Potter cites data showing that traffic accidents rarely report “distracted” driving. I call bullshit. I suspect it's because drivers don’t want to admit they were scrolling through TikTok; but even then, it doesn’t appear to be the clear cause. Smartphones are global, and yet this surge in pedestrian deaths is a uniquely American problem (based on other data from Potter).

So what is it?

My view — and this isn’t mentioned in the article — is that built form must be a factor. Much of it comes down to how we design our cities. Intuitively, this makes sense to me. But there’s also data to support it. First, if we look at pedestrian deaths per capita, there’s a clear bias toward the South and West, both of which tend to have more car-oriented urban patterns compared to the older cities in the North.

Second, if you drill down into specific urban environments — including those adopting strong Vision Zero policies — you’ll see that local trends don’t always match what we’re seeing nationally or even at the state level. For example, in recent years, cities like New York have become much safer for pedestrians:

New York City continues to defy national trends around pedestrian deaths, which are currently at a four-decade high nationwide. Traffic fatalities were down in four of the five major travel modes the DOT tracks. Compared to 2013—the last year before implementation of Vision Zero—New York City traffic deaths have dropped by 14.7%, from 299 that year. Pedestrian deaths have decreased by 35.9% compared to 2013 figures. Cyclist fatalities were also down for the third straight year (17 in 2022, down from a 20-year high of 28 in 2019), declining even as bicycle ridership has soared in recent years.

So my simple theory is this: Human-scaled spaces that are designed around pedestrians, rather than cars, are less likely to kill pedestrians.

At the same time, I do think we’ll see pedestrian deaths naturally come down in the US as autonomous vehicles become more widespread. AVs are already better — or at least safer — drivers than humans, and that will help. None of us should be driving cars anymore if you're just looking at the safety data. But I don’t see that as a good reason not to create more human-scaled spaces. They offer us much more than just safety.

Diagrams: Construction Physics

Here's further evidence that New York City is unlike any other city in the US. According to survey data from the US Census Bureau (via Bloomberg), New York is the only city in the US where the majority of households do not have a car, van, or truck. As of 2024, the figure was 56.7%.

Also noteworthy is the fact that the next two cities on the list — Jersey City and Union City — are just across the Hudson River. So they are highly connected to New York both geographically and economically.

The above chart also includes the median household income for each city. Income is a factor when it comes to car ownership, but I don't think it's the strongest predictor. Some of the highest zero-vehicle cities on this list also have some of the highest median incomes — places like DC, San Francisco, and Cambridge.

The strongest predictor is built form. Once again, urban density, transit access, and a mix of uses are how you give people the option of not driving.