The number of pedestrians killed in the US each year has increased 78% since 2009:
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The number of pedestrians killed in the US each year has increased 78% since 2009:
The number of pedestrians killed in the US each year has increased 78% since 2009:
This comes after decades of steady decline, causing many to wonder: What the hell is going on?
Brian Potter of Construction Physics recently tried to answer this question, here. Perhaps the two most common theories are that (1) bigger cars have become more popular (and bigger cars are more deadly to pedestrians), and (2) people are increasingly distracted by smartphones.
In his view, the SUV theory is maybe supportable, but the evidence is mixed. Pedestrian deaths involving smaller cars like Honda Civics are also up substantially. So it doesn’t seem to be just that.
As for the smartphone theory, Potter cites data showing that traffic accidents rarely report “distracted” driving. I call bullshit. I suspect it's because drivers don’t want to admit they were scrolling through TikTok; but even then, it doesn’t appear to be the clear cause. Smartphones are global, and yet this surge in pedestrian deaths is a uniquely American problem (based on other data from Potter).
So what is it?
My view — and this isn’t mentioned in the article — is that built form must be a factor. Much of it comes down to how we design our cities. Intuitively, this makes sense to me. But there’s also data to support it. First, if we look at pedestrian deaths per capita, there’s a clear bias toward the South and West, both of which tend to have more car-oriented urban patterns compared to the older cities in the North.
Second, if you drill down into specific urban environments — including those adopting strong Vision Zero policies — you’ll see that local trends don’t always match what we’re seeing nationally or even at the state level. For example, in recent years, cities like New York have become much safer for pedestrians:
New York City continues to defy national trends around pedestrian deaths, which are currently at a four-decade high nationwide. Traffic fatalities were down in four of the five major travel modes the DOT tracks. Compared to 2013—the last year before implementation of Vision Zero—New York City traffic deaths have dropped by 14.7%, from 299 that year. Pedestrian deaths have decreased by 35.9% compared to 2013 figures. Cyclist fatalities were also down for the third straight year (17 in 2022, down from a 20-year high of 28 in 2019), declining even as bicycle ridership has soared in recent years.
So my simple theory is this: Human-scaled spaces that are designed around pedestrians, rather than cars, are less likely to kill pedestrians.
At the same time, I do think we’ll see pedestrian deaths naturally come down in the US as autonomous vehicles become more widespread. AVs are already better — or at least safer — drivers than humans, and that will help. None of us should be driving cars anymore if you're just looking at the safety data. But I don’t see that as a good reason not to create more human-scaled spaces. They offer us much more than just safety.
Diagrams: Construction Physics
Here's further evidence that New York City is unlike any other city in the US. According to survey data from the US Census Bureau (via Bloomberg), New York is the only city in the US where the majority of households do not have a car, van, or truck. As of 2024, the figure was 56.7%.
Also noteworthy is the fact that the next two cities on the list — Jersey City and Union City — are just across the Hudson River. So they are highly connected to New York both geographically and economically.
The above chart also includes the median household income for each city. Income is a factor when it comes to car ownership, but I don't think it's the strongest predictor. Some of the highest zero-vehicle cities on this list also have some of the highest median incomes — places like DC, San Francisco, and Cambridge.
The strongest predictor is built form. Once again, urban density, transit access, and a mix of uses are how you give people the option of not driving.
As you know, Northern Virginia is now referred to as "data center alley." It has, by far, the largest agglomeration of data centers in the world. The latest figures are somewhere around 200 completed facilities and some 49 million square feet, with a lot more in the pipeline.
Here's the global top 10 list via Bloomberg:
This comes after decades of steady decline, causing many to wonder: What the hell is going on?
Brian Potter of Construction Physics recently tried to answer this question, here. Perhaps the two most common theories are that (1) bigger cars have become more popular (and bigger cars are more deadly to pedestrians), and (2) people are increasingly distracted by smartphones.
In his view, the SUV theory is maybe supportable, but the evidence is mixed. Pedestrian deaths involving smaller cars like Honda Civics are also up substantially. So it doesn’t seem to be just that.
As for the smartphone theory, Potter cites data showing that traffic accidents rarely report “distracted” driving. I call bullshit. I suspect it's because drivers don’t want to admit they were scrolling through TikTok; but even then, it doesn’t appear to be the clear cause. Smartphones are global, and yet this surge in pedestrian deaths is a uniquely American problem (based on other data from Potter).
So what is it?
My view — and this isn’t mentioned in the article — is that built form must be a factor. Much of it comes down to how we design our cities. Intuitively, this makes sense to me. But there’s also data to support it. First, if we look at pedestrian deaths per capita, there’s a clear bias toward the South and West, both of which tend to have more car-oriented urban patterns compared to the older cities in the North.
Second, if you drill down into specific urban environments — including those adopting strong Vision Zero policies — you’ll see that local trends don’t always match what we’re seeing nationally or even at the state level. For example, in recent years, cities like New York have become much safer for pedestrians:
New York City continues to defy national trends around pedestrian deaths, which are currently at a four-decade high nationwide. Traffic fatalities were down in four of the five major travel modes the DOT tracks. Compared to 2013—the last year before implementation of Vision Zero—New York City traffic deaths have dropped by 14.7%, from 299 that year. Pedestrian deaths have decreased by 35.9% compared to 2013 figures. Cyclist fatalities were also down for the third straight year (17 in 2022, down from a 20-year high of 28 in 2019), declining even as bicycle ridership has soared in recent years.
So my simple theory is this: Human-scaled spaces that are designed around pedestrians, rather than cars, are less likely to kill pedestrians.
At the same time, I do think we’ll see pedestrian deaths naturally come down in the US as autonomous vehicles become more widespread. AVs are already better — or at least safer — drivers than humans, and that will help. None of us should be driving cars anymore if you're just looking at the safety data. But I don’t see that as a good reason not to create more human-scaled spaces. They offer us much more than just safety.
Diagrams: Construction Physics
Here's further evidence that New York City is unlike any other city in the US. According to survey data from the US Census Bureau (via Bloomberg), New York is the only city in the US where the majority of households do not have a car, van, or truck. As of 2024, the figure was 56.7%.
Also noteworthy is the fact that the next two cities on the list — Jersey City and Union City — are just across the Hudson River. So they are highly connected to New York both geographically and economically.
The above chart also includes the median household income for each city. Income is a factor when it comes to car ownership, but I don't think it's the strongest predictor. Some of the highest zero-vehicle cities on this list also have some of the highest median incomes — places like DC, San Francisco, and Cambridge.
The strongest predictor is built form. Once again, urban density, transit access, and a mix of uses are how you give people the option of not driving.
As you know, Northern Virginia is now referred to as "data center alley." It has, by far, the largest agglomeration of data centers in the world. The latest figures are somewhere around 200 completed facilities and some 49 million square feet, with a lot more in the pipeline.
Here's the global top 10 list via Bloomberg:
And here's a map of existing (blue) and proposed (purple) data centers via Loudoun County, Virginia:
This has been an economic boon for Virginia. It's estimated that the data center industry contributes up to 74,000 jobs and $9.1 billion in GDP to the state each year. But along with these benefits come some trade-offs, one of which has to do with the region's built environment.
Here are two zoom-ins of an area to the west of Dulles International Airport:
These maps raise a question that is only going to become more important as time goes on: What's the best way to insert large insular boxes into the fabric of a city or suburb? Of course, in some ways, this is not a new phenomenon. The suburbs are no stranger to this kind of built form.
But it's unique in that these boxes are not meant to be experienced in real life. They're a physical manifestation of our online activities, juxtaposed against our offline lives. It's two different worlds colliding. And already, it may be more appropriate to ask our question in the opposite direction: What's the best way to plan a city or suburb around data centers?
And here's a map of existing (blue) and proposed (purple) data centers via Loudoun County, Virginia:
This has been an economic boon for Virginia. It's estimated that the data center industry contributes up to 74,000 jobs and $9.1 billion in GDP to the state each year. But along with these benefits come some trade-offs, one of which has to do with the region's built environment.
Here are two zoom-ins of an area to the west of Dulles International Airport:
These maps raise a question that is only going to become more important as time goes on: What's the best way to insert large insular boxes into the fabric of a city or suburb? Of course, in some ways, this is not a new phenomenon. The suburbs are no stranger to this kind of built form.
But it's unique in that these boxes are not meant to be experienced in real life. They're a physical manifestation of our online activities, juxtaposed against our offline lives. It's two different worlds colliding. And already, it may be more appropriate to ask our question in the opposite direction: What's the best way to plan a city or suburb around data centers?
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