Bullpen Consulting just released its Q3-2024 high-rise land report for the Greater Toronto Area. Here's a figure showing average high-density land prices (on a per buildable square foot) by quarter since 2018:

Here's their summary data broken out by Toronto versus the Greater Toronto Area:

And here's a list of all the land transactions last quarter:

At the highest level, the average high-density land trade last quarter across the GTA was at around $98 per buildable square foot. This is down 13% from $112 pbsf in Q3-2023. And going back to the first chart in this post, there also seems to be a longer-term decline in high-density land prices.

But as Bullpen rightly points out in their report, there are limits to what can be gleaned from data like this. And that's because land transactions can be structured in countless ways. Did the vendor provide cheap financing? Was there a delayed close? Are there any unique site conditions that could be impacting value? The list goes on.

So even though prices and transaction volumes are down (which is what one would totally expect right now), it still doesn't feel like this data accurately reflects what's going on in the market today. I think the reality is worse.

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Figures: Bullpen Research & Consulting