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Bullpen Consulting just released its Q3-2024 high-rise land report for the Greater Toronto Area. Here's a figure showing average high-density land prices (on a per buildable square foot) by quarter since 2018:
Here's their summary data broken out by Toronto versus the Greater Toronto Area:
And here's a list of all the land transactions last quarter:
At the highest level, the average high-density land trade last quarter across the GTA was at around $98 per buildable square foot. This is down 13% from $112 pbsf in Q3-2023. And going back to the first chart in this post, there also seems to be a longer-term decline in high-density land prices.
But as Bullpen rightly points out in their report, there are limits to what can be gleaned from data like this. And that's because land transactions can be structured in countless ways. Did the vendor provide cheap financing? Was there a delayed close? Are there any unique site conditions that could be impacting value? The list goes on.
So even though prices and transaction volumes are down (which is what one would totally expect right now), it still doesn't feel like this data accurately reflects what's going on in the market today. I think the reality is worse.
If you'd like to join Bullpen's mailing list, here's their website.
Figures: Bullpen Research & Consulting
Bullpen Consulting just released its latest land insights reports for the Greater Toronto Area. For the period of Q2-2022, Ben Myers and the team identified 46 high-density residential land transactions with an average price of $95 per buildable square foot. This is down from $112 pbsf in Q1.
In the core of the city (former City of Toronto), the average price for Q2-2022 was $135 pbsf. In North York it was $103 pbsf. And in Scarborough it was $50 pbsf. Overall land prices are down about 15% from last quarter (though it's important to note that quarterly transactions can represent a relatively small sample size).
We have spoken before about how land prices tend to be fairly sticky in the face of changing cost structures. But what we are seeing right now is a bit of a perfect storm:
Development charges (here in Toronto) are set to increase by 49%
Hard costs have seen double digit increases (with some inputs increasing by 30-40%)
Inclusionary zoning is on the horizon and will add another additional cost to new housing
And rising interest rates are both increasing project costs (higher interest charges) and slowing the macro economy
All of this is naturally causing developers to be more cautious when it comes buying new land. And we are seeing that in the above pricing. But at the same time, this dip in pricing is not going to be enough to absorb all of the additional costs that new housing projects now face in today's market.
If you'd like to download a full copy of Bullpen's report, click here.
Bullpen Consulting just released its Q3-2024 high-rise land report for the Greater Toronto Area. Here's a figure showing average high-density land prices (on a per buildable square foot) by quarter since 2018:
Here's their summary data broken out by Toronto versus the Greater Toronto Area:
And here's a list of all the land transactions last quarter:
At the highest level, the average high-density land trade last quarter across the GTA was at around $98 per buildable square foot. This is down 13% from $112 pbsf in Q3-2023. And going back to the first chart in this post, there also seems to be a longer-term decline in high-density land prices.
But as Bullpen rightly points out in their report, there are limits to what can be gleaned from data like this. And that's because land transactions can be structured in countless ways. Did the vendor provide cheap financing? Was there a delayed close? Are there any unique site conditions that could be impacting value? The list goes on.
So even though prices and transaction volumes are down (which is what one would totally expect right now), it still doesn't feel like this data accurately reflects what's going on in the market today. I think the reality is worse.
If you'd like to join Bullpen's mailing list, here's their website.
Figures: Bullpen Research & Consulting
Bullpen Consulting just released its latest land insights reports for the Greater Toronto Area. For the period of Q2-2022, Ben Myers and the team identified 46 high-density residential land transactions with an average price of $95 per buildable square foot. This is down from $112 pbsf in Q1.
In the core of the city (former City of Toronto), the average price for Q2-2022 was $135 pbsf. In North York it was $103 pbsf. And in Scarborough it was $50 pbsf. Overall land prices are down about 15% from last quarter (though it's important to note that quarterly transactions can represent a relatively small sample size).
We have spoken before about how land prices tend to be fairly sticky in the face of changing cost structures. But what we are seeing right now is a bit of a perfect storm:
Development charges (here in Toronto) are set to increase by 49%
Hard costs have seen double digit increases (with some inputs increasing by 30-40%)
Inclusionary zoning is on the horizon and will add another additional cost to new housing
And rising interest rates are both increasing project costs (higher interest charges) and slowing the macro economy
All of this is naturally causing developers to be more cautious when it comes buying new land. And we are seeing that in the above pricing. But at the same time, this dip in pricing is not going to be enough to absorb all of the additional costs that new housing projects now face in today's market.
If you'd like to download a full copy of Bullpen's report, click here.
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