Bullpen Consulting just released its Q3-2024 high-rise land report for the Greater Toronto Area. Here's a figure showing average high-density land prices (on a per buildable square foot) by quarter since 2018:

Here's their summary data broken out by Toronto versus the Greater Toronto Area:

And here's a list of all the land transactions last quarter:

At the highest level, the average high-density land trade last quarter across the GTA was at around $98 per buildable square foot. This is down 13% from $112 pbsf in Q3-2023. And going back to the first chart in this post, there also seems to be a longer-term decline in high-density land prices.

But as Bullpen rightly points out in their report, there are limits to what can be gleaned from data like this. And that's because land transactions can be structured in countless ways. Did the vendor provide cheap financing? Was there a delayed close? Are there any unique site conditions that could be impacting value? The list goes on.

So even though prices and transaction volumes are down (which is what one would totally expect right now), it still doesn't feel like this data accurately reflects what's going on in the market today. I think the reality is worse.

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Figures: Bullpen Research & Consulting

Bullpen Consulting and Batory Management published their Q4-2019 land insights report for the Greater Toronto Area today. According to the report, there were 36 high-density apartment land transactions in Q4-2019. The average sale price was about $111 per buildable square foot and Bullpen estimates that these future projects -- assuming they go condo -- will sell for just under $1,000 psf on average.

But that's blended across the entire GTA.

Looking at the core of Toronto (former City of Toronto boundaries), the average price per buildable square foot was about $187, which represents a year-over-year increase of 28%. There's also a premium for mid-rise sites. Bullpen pegs the average price of a mid-rise site in the City -- unzoned but with an active development application -- at about $231 pbsf. These numbers will obviously translate into much higher condo/apartment prices.

If you'd like to download a copy of the report, click here.

Bullpen Research & Consulting and Batory Management just published their Q4-2018 High-Rise Land Insights Report for the Greater Toronto Area. 

Above is a mapping of the estimated per square foot buildable prices for the land that traded hands specifically in Toronto last quarter. 

The average is $178 per square foot. And the projected average sale (condo) price is $1,097 psf. That sounds right. You basically need that kind of end pricing to make the math work with today’s costs.

Across the GTA, the average spread between zoned and unzoned land was almost $40 psf. $159 psf versus $120 psf, respectively.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded here.