Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Tag: apple

  • Opinionated design

    This is a longstanding joke / criticism among nerds:

    Namely, it is the fact that the charging port for Apple’s Magic Mouse is on its bottom, meaning, when it’s being charged, you can’t use it. This would be annoying if you ignored the low battery warnings and let it die in the middle of working on something critically important. And so lots of people think it’s a ridiculous design. But is it? Here’s an excerpt from a recent post by John Gruber of Daring Fireball:

    Yes, with the charging port on the mouse’s belly, you cannot use it while it charges. There are obvious downsides to that. But those positing the Magic Mouse as absurd act as though Apple doesn’t know this. Of course Apple knows this. Apple obviously just sees this as a trade-off worth making. Apple wants the mouse to be visually symmetric, and they want the top surface to slope all the way down to the desk or table top it rests upon. You can’t achieve that with an exposed port.

    This is an argument that feels right. Apple is not the kind of company that makes arbitrary design decisions. And the deliberate decision they have made is that a more perfect design is more important than solving for the few instances where a user was negligent and forgot to charge their mouse. Gruber goes on to say, the “charging port placement is an opinionated design, not an absurd design.”

    But this then raises another question: Is opinionated design the right approach?

    For well over a century, one of the maxims of good design has been that form should follow function. In other words, the shape and design of an object should relate to its intended use. And so, in this instance, if “function” involves using the mouse while it’s being charged then maybe, by this criteria, it isn’t a good design. Then again, it is a wireless mouse. Maybe Apple doesn’t want you to use it while it’s charging.

    Let’s consider another design object that you touch with your hand: Walter Gropius’ famous door handle.

    Originally designed in 1922, the simple design consisted of a square bar and a cylinder. And its job was to communicate to you that, in order to use it, you should grab the cylindrical part, and not anywhere else. So on this level, the design was responding to its intended use, to our hands. Grab here. But is this truly an example of form following function? It’s debatable.

    Architect and professor Witold Rybczynski, who I would say generally isn’t a fan of modernism, has argued that it’s not. His critique of the overall Bauhaus movement — of which Gropius was the founder — was that it was actually a design school dedicated to “form follows predetermined aesthetics rather than form follows function.”

    In some ways, he’s right. You can tell when something came out of the Bauhaus, just as you can tell when something is from Apple. There’s a particular aesthetic and stubbornness to maintaining it. That’s why the Magic Mouse can’t be charged while in use and why Apple, equally famously, clung to the simplicity of a single-button mouse. Two just didn’t look as nice.

    But I see this as an honorable quality. Having an opinion is better than not having one. And there are lots of objects out there without one.

  • I finally tried Apple Vision Pro

    I know I’m late to the party on this, but I finally tried Apple Vision Pro this weekend. I was in the Apple Store at the Toronto Eaton Center getting the battery replaced in my phone, so I decided to do a demo. And let me tell you — I was totally blown away. I messaged everyone I knew (after I got my phone back) and told them that they need to try it.

    To be clear, though, very few people right now want to actually buy this computing device. Initially, Apple was thinking that it would sell upwards of 800,000 units this year. But now it expects to sell somewhere closer to 400,000. Maybe. The device is too expensive, too bulky, and the use cases just aren’t there for someone to feel they need to buy it.

    I also found that, when I was looking at the world around me, I could tell I was looking at a video. It wasn’t exactly perfect. (Vision Pro creates a mixed-reality experience by recording the world around you and then playing it back to you.) But that’s okay. The hardware will get better. The price will come down. And the developer community will build a bunch of killer apps that nobody has even thought of yet.

    None of this changes the fact that the device is still an astonishing technical achievement. The eye tracking works perfectly. All of my hand gestures were flawlessly picked up. And the overall experience was entirely immersive — from 3D videos (recorded on regular iPhones) to a butterfly landing on my hand and a velociraptor flaring its nostrils right in front of me.

    What was most impactful to me is that I could easily imagine a future where all of this works. Is this a more exciting way to watch sports? Yes. I sat courtside and Lebron dunked in my face. Is this a better way to watch movies on a plane? By far. Will this be used to help build buildings and coordinate design & engineering disciplines? Yes, absolutely, among many other things.

    It is also easy to imagine how spatial computing is likely to dovetail with other innovations such as AI and blockchains. Mixed-reality or extended reality blurs the line between physical and digital. And in my mind, AI becomes the way in which we will want to interact with this new computing world. (It’s not easy to type on a virtual keyboard.)

    At the same time, digital artifacts will come to be viewed much differently when they’re all blended in. An NFT sitting in a cold wallet is going to feel a lot different than an NFT hanging in a fully immersive 3D gallery that is viewed by millions of people. This strengthens the case for blockchains, and the ownership of digital objects, products, and services.

    Maybe this is really far into the future. I don’t know. But regardless, if you haven’t already, I would encourage you to book a demo at your local Apple Store. However cool and great you think it will be, it will be better. I’m not suggesting you should buy one, but I am suggesting that you need to try it out and see a glimpse into the future.

    And if any of you are working on Apple Vision Pro software that is somehow connected to the design and construction industry, I would love to hear from you and learn more about what you’re up to. I have complete conviction that this will form the future of our industry. The best place to reach out is here.

  • Apple’s next best thing is on the road

    I hate driving (specifically in the city), but I am fascinated by the next generation of Apple’s CarPlay, which I recently wrote about, here.

    One of the reasons why I’m fascinated is because so much of our built environment is built around the car. And since the built environment tends to be very sticky, I think one can safely assume that — for better or for worse, it’s actually worse — we’re going to need a lot of cars for the foreseeable future.

    According to Apple, 98% of new cars in the US come with CarPlay already installed. So, all cars. And the obvious reason for this is that many or most people want it. According to this survey, about 1/3 of new car buyers say that they wouldn’t buy a new car if it didn’t have Apple CarPlay or Android Auto.

    Apple believes this number is much higher at 79% of US buyers. I don’t know what the right number is, but I do believe the number is substantial and probably closer to Apple’s than the 1/3 figure. I certainly wouldn’t buy a new car without CarPlay.

    The result is a suboptimal situation for carmakers. Apple is still going to do whatever it takes to make carmakers want to use CarPlay. My recent post was largely about the design efforts that they have undertaken. But in the end, I’m not sure the auto industry has much of a choice.

    There’s likely no way they’re going to be able to compete with Apple (and Alphabet) from a software perspective and, in the end, consumers are going to want whatever pairs perfectly with their existing phone, since that’s where their entire life already lives.

    No wonder Apple killed their car project. They can just use everyone else’s cars. Even if this is a departure from their typical approach of controlling both the hardware and software.

  • Spatial videos

    If you have an iPhone 15 Pro (and iOS 17.2), you can go into Settings -> Camera -> Formats and turn on a setting called “spatial video.” It will then enable this (excerpt from Om Malik):

    Spatial video is a mixed-reality video format that allows videos to record the depth and spatial information of the scene, and when you play it back, you get a more immersive, three-dimensional (3D) experience. The iPhone 15 Pro utilizes its main lens and the ultra-wide lens to capture the depth and spatial information of the videos. The spatial videos are captured at 1080p, 30 frames per second, and use the HEIC format.

    What you can then do is watch your videos on something like an Apple Vision Pro. It’s not going to be exactly perfect right now — given that the Vision Pro display is over 8k and the above is 1080p — but it will give you an indication of what’s to come for photography, video, and many other use cases.

    Some examples.

    As a regular consumer, this might allow you to capture videos from a trip and then more fully relive the moments once you’re at home. And as Om argues in his post, this will inevitably change photography/video. Because how we consume media, impacts how and what we capture.

    If you’re in the business of selling real estate to people, you can also imagine this set up having a profound impact on virtual tours. Because now you have something that’s pretty damn close to reality, if not eventually indistinguishable. Why even go in person until you have to?

    Of course, all of this will depend on whether Vision Pro actually sees widespread adoption. But if the technology is as good as everyone who has tested it seems to think, then surely there will be at least some initial users who find immediate value.

    And if that is the case, it opens the door for the masses. To once again quote Om: “It is not hard to be excited about the possibilities.”

  • You never really own it. You simply look after it for a few years.

    I have been wearing an Apple Watch for many years and I love it. I love tracking my workouts. I love seeing my altitude when I’m snowboarding. And I love using it to pay for almost everything. Today I also learned that when you dive into a body of water, it’ll tell you the temperature of said water and your depth. It’s all pretty incredible and, of course, it’s only going to get better.

    Like clockwork (bad pun), new features are continually being added and that means that the watch I have on my wrist right now will likely be obsolete in a matter of a few years. This is a good thing because it means the tech is continually getting better. But it’s also a bad thing because it means my current watch doesn’t have any real longevity.

    Legacy watch companies like Patek Philippe have sold us on the idea that a watch is something you keep for a lifetime and then pass down to the next generation. And there’s something wonderfully romantic about this idea, which is why people do/did it.

    But today, Apple Watches alone outsell the entire Swiss watch industry. Meaning, most people have moved on from this romantic idea of a watch. We want new diving features! And there’s part of me that feels sad about this. My parents got me my current watch and it would be nice if I could tell that to the next generation of our family.

  • Augmented reality is coming — will it finally reach construction sites?

    Apple has been working on new virtual reality and/or augmented reality headsets for at least 6 years. This has been widely reported. But in typical Apple fashion, nobody knows anything about them, even though something is set to be revealed as early as this fall. I also don’t know anything about them, but I already want one. I am sure Tim Cook will get up on stage at some point and convince me that I need it immediately, so I’m trying to get ahead of that moment.

    VR/AR headsets are, of course, not new. Google tried and failed. Nobody wanted to wear them besides nerds. I had a pair of Focals by North but they were far too cumbersome to use and about as comfortable as having a smartphone duct-taped to your face. Meta’s headsets currently control the market. They have about 78% market share. But the overall market remains small. It’s mostly gamers. But the same could have been said about tablets before Apple did its thing.

    The promise is that these AR headsets might replace our phones as the dominant personal device. AR > VR. And that feels to me like a reasonable assumption once the requisite tech arrives. But even before that, there are a ton of great use cases for highly-functioning AR — everything from online shopping and digital fashion to finally fulfilling the dream of walking around a construction site and visualizing the design and coordination clashes.

    Technically these things are already possible, but the technology remains fairly niche. I hope Apple changes that.

    Full disclosure: I am long Apple.

  • Shares vs. tokens

    Crypto tokens are kind of like shares in a company, or at least they can be pretty similar if one wants them to be. Here is an interesting post by Tomasz Tunguz comparing the two. More specifically, he looks at inflation and deflation for both kinds of assets. According to Tomasz’s numbers, the average annual change in share count for software companies is about +5% (see above chart). Though there are some notable exceptions, such as Apple, who are aggressively buying back shares and decreasing their counts.

    The median inflation rate for crypto tokens, on the other hand, is much higher. Based on the projects that Tomasz chose for his post, the median rate is about 25%. Given the age of most of these crypto tokens, this generally makes sense. Younger companies also tend to have higher inflation rates as they raise outside money and issue new shares to attract talent. But this is likely to change as the space matures. Those of you who are following closely, will know that Ether is set to become deflationary sometime later this year.

    But going beyond these inflationary and deflationary numbers, what is more interesting to me is how similar shares and tokens can be, but also how meaningfully different they can be at the same time. They are similar in that they represent some sort of value, they can be bought, sold, loaned and generally used to earn a yield, and they can be used for governance matters, among other things. Where they are the most different is that (1) we don’t really know how to value most tokens right now and (2) tokens can have utility.

    I am confident that (1) will change as the space evolves. It is still very early days and valuation methodologies will get figured out. (2) will also grow and evolve into things that are unimaginable today, but even right now you have the option of using your crypto tokens to buy things like NFTs. This option should, in theory, have some sort of value attached to it. Though nobody has any clue what these NFTs will be worth ten years from now and so it’s pretty easy to poke fun at JPEGs of Apes. But with some new NFT projects seeing over $52 million in trading volume in their first 30 days, my instinct is to learn as opposed to eschew.

    Not every crypto token will have enduring value, just like not every share in a company has enduring value. Some are worth a lot and some are worth nothing. At the end of the day, what matters is the underlying business or project or city that you are becoming a part owner of. And I can tell you that lots of exceedingly smart people are working on exactly this for the token space.

  • My predictions for 2022

    As promised, below is a list of some of my predictions for this coming year. I have tried to be both punchier and more precise in my prognostications; because, well, obvious predictions are boring and precision will allow me to better evaluate my thinking at the end of the year. So here goes.

    1. 2022 will be the year that COVID-19 becomes endemic and finally fizzles out to a point where it no longer factors into our decision making in the same way that it has for most people over the last two years or so. I think this will happen by as early as the summer.
    2. As a result, I think the majority of people will be back in their offices by this September at the very latest, with many coming back much earlier. The whole hybrid/flexible work thing won’t completely disappear, but the majority of people who used to work in offices will be back.
    3. Recreational/fringe residential real estate will soften in 2022 as a result of 1) its tremendous run-up during this pandemic and 2) the renewed pull of urban/office life. Conversely, urban apartment rents will continue to rise and eventually surpass their pre-COVID levels. The SF Bay Area could be one exception.
    4. The explosion of travel that I thought was going to happen in 2021, will truly happen this year. The summer will mark its official return, with European travel volumes (to give just one example) returning to their pre-COVID levels.
    5. We will see meaningful efforts to further breakdown the hegemony of single-family zoning throughout many North American cities. This has been building for a number of years and I think we will see some tipping point-like moments in 2022. Specifically, expanded permissions for multi-unit housing and greater densities.
    6. I wish I could say that autonomous vehicles are destined to do something truly remarkable this year, but I think we are still a few years out (2024-2025?) before a large chunk of us are ride-hailing AVs. But on a related note, I do think that Uber will come into its own this year and finally become profitable (and not just with adjusted profits).
    7. Public transit ridership will, unfortunately, remain depressed and below its pre-COVID levels for this entire year. The beneficiaries of this will continue to be cars (not good), bikes, and micro-mobility solutions like e-scooters.
    8. 2021 was a huge year for NFTs and other fun stuff like digital fashion. Given these trends, I believe there will be growing demand from people to better integrate their digital and physical lives through technologies like augmented reality. Snap has been at the forefront of this space for many years and 2022 will be an important year for its Spectacles (AR glasses). But Apple and others will also make major announcements.
    9. Miami’s ascent as an important tech hub will get interrupted by questions surrounding the climate crisis and its own resilience. At the time of writing this post, the price of carbon on the EU’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is about €80 per tonne. I think we will see it break €125 per tonne this year, and possibly go even higher.
    10. Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana (in this order) will be the top three cryptocurrencies according to market cap by the end of the year. At the time of writing this post, their market caps are $446 billion, $895 billion, and $55 billion, respectively. I am also expecting some breakout web3 consumer applications that will push, maybe, 40% of Canadians and Americans into the crypto space.

    Photo by Dave Xu on Unsplash

  • Risk and architecture

    Building things, as we all know, is a risky endeavor. I think of myself as an optimist, but the reality is that there are countless things that can go wrong. There’s approvals risk, political risk, market risk, construction risk, design risk, and many other kinds of risk, some/many of which will be entirely unforeseen. If you asked me two years ago, I wouldn’t have listed pandemic risk as being all that high up on the list.

    So one way to think about the process of building/developing is that it is an exercise in risk mitigation. This makes it sound a lot less sexy than “city building.” Given this, there can be a natural and understandable tendency to want to repeat what worked the last time around. Why make a change and introduce more risk into the system if you don’t have to, right? This is arguably one of the reasons why it is often said that the real state industry isn’t all that innovative. Too busy managing risk.

    To give a specific example, let’s say you’re really focused on managing design risk. In this case, you might make the decision to always work with the same architect. This way you can establish a set of typical approaches and a standard spec. You know how to work together and you know what you’re getting when it comes to working drawings. Rinse and repeat as best you can.

    There is also something to be said about a kind of product-driven or branded approach to development. In this case you want some consistency to help build a specific brand and experience. And just because you’re using the same firm, doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t innovate and be design forward. This is what great architects do. Think Foster + Partners and Apple. Their stores are powerful brand symbols but also wonderful and highly site specific.

    An alternative approach might be to continually use different (design) architects. And maybe partnering with an array of celebrated firms is part of your brand story. You introduce a certain degree of design risk because you’re now trying out and building new relationships, but you could perhaps argue that you’re mitigating other risks. Does using a brand name architect help to reduce market risk, for example? In some markets, it’s almost essential.

    I don’t think there’s a right or wrong approach here. Use the same firm, or don’t. Use international starchitects, or don’t. The point is simply that development is fraught with risks that need to be managed. Design is one of many. How you choose to do that depends on what you’re trying to do and what you’re after.

  • The car revolution is being powered by software

    Frederic Filloux publishes a regular newsletter called the Monday Note. It’s generally all about tech and new emerging business models. His latest post, called “Code, on wheels,” is about Tesla and the software revolution that is currently underway in the car industry. And it’s a good reminder of just how unique Tesla appears to be as a car company and how software is bound to infiltrate all aspects of our economy. Already you’re hearing people make a distinction around “pure” software companies. This is necessary because of how ubiquitous it has become.

    Here is a a longish excerpt from Filloux’s article:

    But the ultimate leap in value will be the creation of an application ecosystem. The limit will only be the imagination of app creators. As an example, airport operators are likely to develop apps to manage car traffic and passenger flows. Here is a use case: Your flight departing from San Jose Airport leaves in an hour. Your dual app system — one in your phone, the other in the car — checks the flight status, the gate, and the traffic. It notifies you when it’s time to leave. Once in the vicinity of the airport, the app guides you to the parking space nearest to the gate. An alternative and slightly more futuristic scenario involves you dropping your car in front of the terminal, then letting the autopilot send the car to the long-term parking lot a few miles away (this will soon become feasible as geofenced environments such as airports will be well-suited for Level 4 autonomous driving).

    Again, this implies major changes in the way car software is currently handled. These scenarios require the car and the phone apps working seamlessly, exchanging data in real-time with the airlines, the airport, the navigation system of the car, the parking infrastructure, and eventually, the autopilot. We are not there yet, but by that time, the dust will have settled: either carmakers will have developed their own OS — along with the SDKs to foster the development of third-party apps — and/or, tech giants will have taken-over, leveraging their current market positions in the phone sector to impose their own norms. I always thought that Apple had that in mind when it hired legions of engineers for its Titan project and filed applications for self-driving cars to the California Department of Motor Vehicles. I doubt that they completely gave up on the idea of replicating what they achieved for the 500 billion smartphone market with the 3 trillion dollar car sector.

    There are many in the planning world who are quick to dismiss autonomous electric vehicles as being more of the same. They’re still cars, right? For better or for worse, the internal combustion engine was massively transformational to cities — just as previous advances in transportation were. But what comes next is still mostly unknown because, even if you assume that autonomy is a foregone conclusion, it’s unclear how this and an app ecosystem could change how “cars” function in our cities. What will be the spatial impacts?

    It is, however, clear to me that when things do start to really change, it will be because of software.

    Photo by Jannis Lucas on Unsplash