Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Tag: apple

  • Canada’s COVID Alert app

    I installed and setup Health Canada’s COVID Alert app this morning.

    It’s really simple to do that. You don’t enter any personal information. You just select which province you’re in, agree to let it use your Bluetooth, and give it permission to share the random codes that you collect with its servers (more on this below). The app is then active and working. But to be clear, it doesn’t collect your location (it doesn’t use GPS or location services). It doesn’t collect the places or times that you are next to someone who also has the COVID Alert app. And it doesn’t know if you’re with someone who was previously diagnosed with COVID-19.

    Built on top of the private exposure framework that was collectively developed by Apple and Google, the app works by using Bluetooth to exchange “random codes” between nearby phones that have the app. These are anonymous and random codes that are used to track which phones have been next to which phones for any meaningful period of time. The app also uses Bluetooth signal strength to estimate proximity. So it knows how long your phone has been proximate to someone else’s (with the app) and how close they got to each other.

    That’s pretty much all that happens with the app unless you test positive for COVID-19. At that point, you will be given a one-time key along with your diagnosis. The onus is then on you to anonymously self-report on the app. Once you do that, anyone who was exposed — i.e. next to your phone in the last 14 days — will receive an alert on their phone via the app. And since the app doesn’t know any names or who anybody is, it’s of course all completely anonymous.

    It’s great to see all of this coming together. The private sector worked to build the underlying framework and now you have government building on top of it to deliver public health tools. I know that some or many of you will be concerned about privacy, but that appears to have been very well thought out. If you haven’t already downloaded the app, I would encourage you to check it out. It’s available for iOS and Android and can be downloaded over here.

  • Working from home: then and now

    In 1987, Apple thought working from home should look something like this:

    Cool studio apartment with killer view. Hard disk that stores over 10,000 pages. Curious photoshoot-type lamp facing your bed. And fascimile machine capable of sending hard copies to anyone in the world. All while being steps from your refrigerator.

    But over three decades later, it instead turned out to be more like this:

    https://youtu.be/6_pru8U2RmM

    Isn’t technology liberating?

  • Exposure tracing APIs to be released May 1

    The “contact tracing” API that Apple and Google are working on and that I wrote about earlier this month is set to be released on May 1. Given all the concerns around privacy, it’s now being referred to as “exposure tracing.” The idea, here, is to emphasize that it is being designed to trace the coronavirus and not individuals.

    To be clear, we’re talking about APIs, and so third party apps will need to be built on top of this tech before we can start downloading anything to our phones. But I am sure that will happen very soon and I will gladly opt in.

    It’s also worth mentioning that this entire concept of smartphone exposure tracing only works when Apple and Google cooperate. Whatever apps ultimately get built need to work across both platforms, otherwise there would be far too many gaps in the network. So this — along with the focus on privacy — has become a bit of good PR for “big tech.”

    The smart people working on exposure tracing over at Oxford University seem to think that (alongside other interventions) we could stop this virus with only about 60% of the population using an exposure tracing app. (They ran models with a pretend city of 1 million people.) But even at 50% penetration, they believe it could make a meaningful contribution.

    These are numbers I think we could easily get to in major cities. Overall, I suspect it could also make people feel a lot more comfortable about going out. And going out is what’s going to be required as we gradually reopen the global economy. How many of you think you will opt in to something like this once it becomes available?

  • Apple and Google are building a voluntary contact-tracing network for COVID-19

    Venture capitalist Albert Wenger wrote on his blog today that the road back from COVID-19 could start — as early as May — provided we’re able to get our act together around three essential things: masks, tests, and tracing for everyone. We have all been talking about the importance of these things over the last few weeks, but I think it’s worth mentioning just how quickly some of this is starting to happen.

    Both Apple and Google have announced that they are building a voluntary contact-tracing network. By May, they hope to release a set of APIs that other software developers will be able to build on top of. Bluetooth will be what is used to detect when humans are in close proximity to each other. Eventually, both companies plan to integrate contact tracing right into their operating systems.

    Here’s how it might work:

    Of course, we are also seeing new startups emerge, like this one here called Coronatrace.

    Similar to what Apple and Google have in mind, the app will be a voluntary contact-tracing network. By using it, your phone will begin to log how you move about, something that is already happening today with many of the apps we already use. Should someone test positive for COVID-19 (they would need to update their health status within the app), it would then immediately notify the network and anyone who might have crossed paths with them.

    Obviously it would be far better to simply have a vaccine. But the experts are saying that will take some time — 12 to 18 months? And in the interim, we’re going to need to get the global economy back up and running. Seeing solutions like these being developed makes me hopeful we’ll be able to do that sooner rather than later.

  • Why are people buying Apple Watches?

    I have been using an Apple Watch for a couple of months now. A lot of people ask me why I feel it is necessary to have a screen on my wrist, and I certainly get why some would see it as a massive distraction. You have to be selective with your notifications. Generally speaking, I find it very useful, though not necessarily invaluable.

    But every now and then I come across a new use case and think to myself, “well this is pretty cool.” I recently discovered that you can use it for boarding passes, which means one less thing in your hands at the airport. And this week I’ve been using it while snowboarding, which is helpful if you’re trying to manage a WhatsApp group chat and you don’t want to take your phone out on the lifts.

    The numbers also suggest I’m not alone in finding utility. Here are Apple’s sales numbers from Neil Cybart of Above Avalon:

    Apple has sold more than 90 million Apple Watches to date with 29 million sold in calendar year 2019. With an average selling price of more than $400, the Apple Watch is bringing in $12 billion of revenue per year, and that total is growing by 30% per year. After taking into account upgrade trends, the number of people wearing an Apple Watch has crossed 65 million. Based on my forward projections, the Apple Watch installed base will surpass 100 million people in 2021.

    In Neil’s view, the Apple Watch is indeed one of those paradigm shifts in computing. It is taking over tasks that our phones used to do and it is allowing for entirely new use cases. Neil cites three important features. We are now able to (1) seamlessly track/monitor aspects of our health, (2) intelligently receive small bits of information, and (3) augment our surroundings (“contextual awareness.”)

    For more on why the Apple Watch is / could be fundamentally changing mobile tech, click here.

  • Market power in tech

    Benedict Evan’s latest post on Microsoft, IBM, and anti-trust is excellent. In it he argues (reminds us) that market power during one generation of tech, doesn’t necessarily guarantee market power in the next. And that anti-trust intervention isn’t actually responsible for Microsoft missing out on, among other things, mobile. The rules of engagement simply changed. The PC is now a smartphone accessory.

    Here is an excerpt:

    The tech industry loves to talk about ‘moats’ around a business – some mechanic of the product or market that forms a fundamental structural barrier to competition, so that just having a better product isn‘t enough to break in. But there are several ways that a moat can stop working. Sometimes the King orders you to fill in the moat and knock down the walls. This is the deus ex machina of state intervention – of anti-trust investigations and trials. But sometimes the river changes course, or the harbour silts up, or someone opens a new pass over the mountains, or the trade routes move, and the castle is still there and still impregnable but slowly stops being important. This is what happened to IBM and Microsoft. The competition isn’t another mainframe company or another PC operating system – it’s something that solves the same underlying user needs in very different ways, or creates new ones that matter more. The web didn’t bridge Microsoft’s moat – it went around, and made it irrelevant. Of course, this isn’t limited to tech – railway and ocean liner companies didn’t make the jump into airlines either. But those companies had a run of a century – IBM and Microsoft each only got 20 years.

    For the full post, click here.

  • Project connected home

    This week it was announced that Amazon, Apple, Google, and the Zigbee Alliance are joining forces to develop a new royalty-free connectivity standard for smart home products. The working group is called Project Connected Home over IP and the goal is to develop a “USB-like plug-and-play protocol for the home.” If successful, this standard would get applied to all smart home systems, including the Amazon, Apple, Google, and other “assistants” that you may already have in your home.

    The thing about smart home devices is that most of them are exactly that: a device. They’re something you buy and append to your home, as opposed to something that gets built into the core of your home. This, of course, makes sense, given how difficult it is to innovate within the real estate space. If you’re in the business of creating smart home products, you ideally want everyone to be able to buy it and quickly add it to what they already have. And as a consumer, you don’t want your permanent fixtures to become quickly outdated.

    But if/when a standard emerges, I wonder if that doesn’t make it easier to develop a more holistic approach to smart home products. That could be really interesting. If you’d like to learn more about the project, click here.

  • The Information Age: Tech & the S&P 500

    The below chart from this morning’s Wall Street Journal is perhaps a good example of our ongoing transformation from an industrial economy to an information economy. Just four stocks — namely Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook — have accounted for 19% of the S&P 500’s total return this year. All of them are “tech.”

    And this is not new to 2019. Similar contributions were made by tech last year and in 2018. I have been used to hearing about the 4 horsemen of tech. But apparently there’s even now something called the “FAANG stocks,” which refers to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google (Alphabet).

    This shift is, of course, one of the reasons why every city is trying to establish a strong tech ecosystem. I saw that first-hand in Lisbon this past week. And frankly I think the city has many of the same characteristics that made Berlin a great place for tech. It’s affordable. It’s filled with young and smart people. And it’s a fun place to be.

    There’s a reason that Lisbon now hosts the annual Web Summit, which is generally considered to be the largest tech conference in the world. (The North American offshoot, called Collision, relocated to Toronto this year in order to be in a more global city.)

    Portugal only has a population of about 10 million people. There are some 3 million people in the metropolitan area of Lisbon. But that doesn’t really matter because most startups today are immediately targeting a global customer base.

    I learned more about Portugal and Spain’s colonial pasts on this trip and I found it fascinating. In many ways, it was the start of globalization. But that was the Age of Discovery. Those centuries are over and done with. Our century is the Information Age. The above chart is part of that story.

  • The Apple Card fine print

    Apple announced a number of new products and services this week, including Apple TV+ and a new Apple credit card, which will initially only be available in the US.

    It all aligns nicely with their goal of growing their service/subscription businesses and weaning themselves off of an over-dependence on iPhone revenue.

    Below is a video summary of the new Apple Card. In typical Apple fashion, it sounds and looks like an elegant solution and I already want to one.

    I thought this topic would make an interesting follow-up to my recent post about whether cities should be banning cashless businesses so as to not discriminate against the “unbanked.”

    Because embedded in the above credit card is the following cashback reward structure:

    • 3% back on Apple purchases
    • 2% back on purchases made with Apple Pay (iPhone)
    • 1% back on purchases made with the (optional) physical card

    And so what this “card” will do is pay you to always use your phone. The cashback reward system is also instantaneous and you’ll be able to spend that Daily Cash (that’s the name) just like you would actual cash.

    Do you think this would change how you pay for things? I think for most people it will.

  • iPhone as a Service

    At the beginning of this year – January 2nd to be exact – Apple revised its earnings guidance, downward. It was the first time in 15 years that the company had to do this. 

    Tim Cook’s letter to shareholders, which can be found here, focuses a lot on China and its “economic deceleration.” But M.G. Siegler of 500ish Words believes that a greater pivot could be underway. His piece can be found here. It’s a good read.

    Firstly, Apple’s current growth period is probably over. And secondly, the company is likely going to need to diversify away from high margin hardware/software sales and continue to grow its Services business (something that Microsoft has, ironically, already done).

    Here is an excerpt from M.G. Siegler’s essay (Apple’s Precarious and Pivotal 2019):

    The iPhone has simply been too good of a business. And it’s hard to see what tops it. Certainly in the near term. If Services is to carry Apple in the future, it will likely be only after years of relatively stagnant iPhone revenue growth mixed with a rising overall market. In other words, time and the broader world will have to catch up. And then Apple can have their “Microsoft Moment” — a services-based resurrection of growth.

    As Tim points out in his letter, most of Apple’s Services revenue is tied to its installed base, as opposed to current period sales (also: less exposure to China). Last quarter that number was $10.8 billion – a new record.

    So what we may see in the near future is the end of outright phone purchases and instead some sort of iPhone as a Service (or iPaaS). Pay Apple every month in perpetuity; always have the latest iPhone.

    Of course, Apple has many other irons in the fire. Apple Watch has turned out to be a big business and the company is said to have 2,700 “core employees” working on its autonomous driving project. 

    Maybe some of these businesses will also end up as Services.