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April 19, 2020

How Europe is reopening

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Just over a month ago, as North America was beginning its lockdown, the Europeans were the ones showing us how to stay sane in quarantine through balcony orchestras and viral internet videos. Now we're looking to them for how best to reopen the economy and minimize the number of fits and starts.

  • This morning Spain recorded its lowest daily death rate from the coronavirus. It is beginning to prepare for a phased relaxation of its lockdown rules. Things will not return to normal overnight. [Financial Times]

  • Spain allowed construction activity and manufacturing to resume this past week. As a reminder, Spain's strict lockdown started on March 14. [New York Times]

  • Bookstores are open in Venice, but that's about it. Customers have to enter one at a time, or schedule an appointment. Hotels, restaurants, and cafes remain shuttered. It is believed that at least 1/6th of all Italian restaurants and bars will not survive. Reopening is not happening uniformly across Italy's 20 regions. [Wall Street Journal]

  • Last week, Denmark became the first country in the Western world to reopen elementary schools. The desks are far apart and teaching outside is being maximized, but some/many are concerned that this is too soon. Are we prioritizing the economy (i.e. free up the parents) over the health of our children? [New York Times]

  • The Czech Republic currently has one of the lowest number of cases on the continent. But hardware stores and bike shops are some of the only nonessential businesses that are allowed to be open. The Easter weekend saw an over 60% increase in year-over-year sales. Biking is something to do right now. [Wall Street Journal]

  • On Monday, the lockdown will be further relaxed by the Czech government. Weddings of up to 10 people will start to be allowed. Gyms are expected to open on May 11, but their change rooms will remain closed. (I'm surprised by this one.) Malls, hotels, and indoor restaurants aren't expected to reopen until June 8 at the earliest. Should the number of new daily cases exceed 400 going forward, the government has said it will reimpose a lockdown. [Wall Street Journal]

  • The UK is not yet considering a relaxation of its lockdown. As of Sunday, the situation remains "deeply worrying." The UK currently has the 5th highest national death toll. [Globe and Mail]

  • On April 13, Emmanuel Macron announced that France would begin a phased reopening of its economy -- schools and some businesses -- starting on May 11. This is a unique approach. He gave a firm date, well into the future. What if this doesn't make sense when the time comes? Clearly the government felt that the psychological benefits of a firm date outweighed the potential risks. Minimize uncertainty during an uncertain time. [Le Monde]

  • Lots of discussion around the porosity of borders. Logically, there's a view that unless there's a common strategy, it's better to keep borders closed. But what are the economic implications of doing that? [New York Times]

Photo by Grant Lemons on Unsplash

March 20, 2020

Nurx announces home testing kit

I have been debating whether I should continue writing about what is already on all of our minds, or if I should focus my attention on positivity and humor. The latter is hugely important at a time like this, which is why I have been trying to intersperse my thoughts, both here and on Twitter, with things like funny videos, dance music, and architecture.

But the reality is that none of us know how this is all going to play out. As I mentioned yesterday, very few of us have a mental model for this kind of macro event. So it's important for all of us to continue learning. Is our country taking the right approach? Are we doing enough? How long are we going to have to live like this and what does that mean for the global economy?

The Financial Times published an invaluable story earlier this week about a small town outside of Venice called, Vò. With only 3,300 people, the town was supposedly able to test and retest all of its residents while the rest of northern Italy was growing as an epicenter for the Wuhan virus.

In late February, they completed their first round of testing and found that about 3% of the town had been infected. But it's important to note that about 50% of those that were infected were completely asymptomatic! However, because everyone was tested, the asymptomatic people got immediately quarantined.

The town did a second round of testing about 10 days later and that point the infection rate had dropped to about 0.3%. Of course, if all those asymptomatic people had been out and about in the town of Vò, this would not have been the case. There now appears to be no new cases in Vò.

It is for this reason that the WHO is urging diligent and repeated testing. But that obviously needs to be done in a sensible way. Having people line up -- together -- for hours upon hours is an obvious problem. Most people are not getting tested.

Earlier this morning, San Francisco-based Nurx announced a home testing kit for the Wuhan virus. Supposedly it is the first of its kind in the US. (It's not yet available in Canada -- I asked). I don't know how available it is to Americans or how accurate it is, yet, but I do know that something like this needs to become widespread.

November 22, 2019

New York City is testing new "flex gates"

I spent a good chunk of this morning talking and thinking about underground building details that most people (unless you're in the industry) would never think to consider. This is not a criticism on most people. I mean, I don't know how iPhones are made. I just use and enjoy them. But when it comes to buildings, I'm paid to ask questions and understand how things work.

There's a lot of risk in the ground.

You have to think about things like bearing capacity, environmental contamination (usually), hydrostatic pressure and, generally, how you're going to manage water, particularly if you have a high groundwater table. Usually this last one is about making sure you're keeping the water out. A pretty important detail both below and above grade.

So when I came home tonight and saw the below tweet, I felt obligated to write about it.

https://twitter.com/kayeblegvad/status/1197266655891599362?s=20

If you read the reply from NYC's Metropolitan Transportation Authority, you'll see that this is them testing something they call a "flex gate." It is a flood barrier that allows them to seal off subway entrances in the case of a storm surge and they run these tests (shown above) for 4 hours at a time to make sure they're installed property. This one was.

Managing water is a big part of city building. New York City, Miami, Venice, and countless others know this all too well right now.

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Brandon Donnelly

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Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.

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