Cities exist because they offer economic and social benefits. People generally come to cities to make money, find a partner, and interact with other humans. Occasionally, we underestimate this desire to cluster — which was the case during our recent pandemic. But the reality is that this is a human tendency that has existed for thousands of years and that also happens to be accelerating.

I mean, as recent as 1980, only about 40% of the world's population was living in an urban area. Today, this figure is closer to 60%, and by 2080, it is predicted that up to 90% of the people on this planet will live in an urban center.

This will take the number of megacities with over 10 million people from 3 (in 1980) to nearly 100 in 2080 (according to projections from UN-Habitat). But here's the thing: cities help people become wealthier, but once people become wealthier, they tend to have far fewer children. This inverse correlation is well established. So intuitively, there should be limits to the growth we are seeing.

Here's an interesting article from CityLab by Greg Clark, Borane Gille and Jennifer Dolynchuk that pegs this peak somewhere around 2080. We will still remain extremely urban, but overall our population will start to decline. And for some cities, like Tokyo, this decline has already started.

Charts via CityLab

I've been trying to think of the right city analogy to explain what it's like to really experience a place. Onions are perhaps the obvious choice because of the layers you peel back. But that's not entirely accurate, because the layers of an onion tend to be uniform. I think a better choice would be a pomegranate.

Pomegranates are a nice-looking fruit. Good colors. They also have high symbolic value in many cultures. They are typically associated with abundance and fertility. And so I would imagine you could enjoy one just by looking at it or by having an artificial replica of one on display.

But the real benefits of a pomegranate arrive when you dig for its jewel-like seeds, called arils. This is the stuff that tastes good and is rich in antioxidants, fiber, and vitamins. But it requires some work to uncover these seeds and they're not uniformly distributed. Instead, they tend to be clustered. They are also surrounded by a white membrane that is bitter and generally unpleasant to eat. So most people work around these parts.

This is a lot like how cities work. It's easy to experience a city on a superficial and symbolic level. Most cities have a prejudicing brand that gives you some indication of how you should feel while you're there. But the best parts come when you go digging. There will be bitter and unpleasant parts, no doubt, but that's just the price you pay to enjoy their hidden jewels.

If any of you can think of a better fruit or vegetable to use, please let me know.