Yesterday I sent out this tweet, which included this graph:
The chart is from Altus Group and it is a monthly price index of new low-rise vs. high-rise housing in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). I have posted similar charts in the past, but every time this chart gets updated the spread widens and the market looks even crazier.
Some people responded on Twitter by saying that this is clearly an indication of a bubble. I don’t know if that is the case.
But, as I have said many times before, I do believe that it tells a vivid story around supply. Low-rise housing is severely supply constrained in the GTA and high-rise housing is less so. That has helped to stabilize pricing in the latter case.
Now, you could look at this chart and say that the pace of low-rise price increases is simply unsustainable. The market must correct.
But you could also look at it and say that the market is going through a fundamental shift whereby more and more families will start living up, as opposed to out – which should then translate into high-rise pricing trending upwards as unit sizes increase. This is where I think we are headed.
I love the way that urban planner Joe Berridge thinks about Toronto and city building. He is constantly considering our position on the global stage and urging us to fight for a top position by executing on real and meaningful projects.
Here is a recent article from the Toronto Star which lists some of those projects. They include everything from a new convention center to creating a fourth university (in addition to the University of Toronto, York, and Ryerson).
Here’s a snippet:
We could get “lost in domesticity — very nice, but that’s not enough,” he says, drawing on his experience leading urban renewal projects around the world.
Toronto’s social cohesion is enough to attract 125,000 new people each year to the region. But they won’t stay if we can’t employ them and provide opportunities. And that requires global thinking.
Berridge says it is the city’s “moral obligation” to use its taxing power, its wealth, its status as Canada’s only global city and the historical advantages of public education, public health and public services to propel Toronto into super city status.
Yesterday I sent out this tweet, which included this graph:
The chart is from Altus Group and it is a monthly price index of new low-rise vs. high-rise housing in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). I have posted similar charts in the past, but every time this chart gets updated the spread widens and the market looks even crazier.
Some people responded on Twitter by saying that this is clearly an indication of a bubble. I don’t know if that is the case.
But, as I have said many times before, I do believe that it tells a vivid story around supply. Low-rise housing is severely supply constrained in the GTA and high-rise housing is less so. That has helped to stabilize pricing in the latter case.
Now, you could look at this chart and say that the pace of low-rise price increases is simply unsustainable. The market must correct.
But you could also look at it and say that the market is going through a fundamental shift whereby more and more families will start living up, as opposed to out – which should then translate into high-rise pricing trending upwards as unit sizes increase. This is where I think we are headed.
I love the way that urban planner Joe Berridge thinks about Toronto and city building. He is constantly considering our position on the global stage and urging us to fight for a top position by executing on real and meaningful projects.
Here is a recent article from the Toronto Star which lists some of those projects. They include everything from a new convention center to creating a fourth university (in addition to the University of Toronto, York, and Ryerson).
Here’s a snippet:
We could get “lost in domesticity — very nice, but that’s not enough,” he says, drawing on his experience leading urban renewal projects around the world.
Toronto’s social cohesion is enough to attract 125,000 new people each year to the region. But they won’t stay if we can’t employ them and provide opportunities. And that requires global thinking.
Berridge says it is the city’s “moral obligation” to use its taxing power, its wealth, its status as Canada’s only global city and the historical advantages of public education, public health and public services to propel Toronto into super city status.
Cities will often talk in nebulous terms about being “world class.” That isn’t all that helpful. Let’s be specific and also acknowledge that great things cost money. Are we a top tourist destination? Are we a top convention destination? Are we attracting the smartest people in the world with the best schools? Do we have the best transit and health care systems in the world?
Toronto is a great city and so it’s perhaps easy to become complacent. But past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes. We need to think in global terms. We need to keep in mind that this is an international competition. And every day all of us step onto that field.
Thank you Joe for constantly reminding us of that.
Tech Toronto recently published a new study called,
They estimate that there are over 400,000 tech jobs in Toronto, out of a total of 2.7 million people employed. That number includes tech people working for non-tech companies, and tech and non-tech people working for tech companies. So tech jobs are thought to represent about 15% of the city’s employment.
Within this 400,000 or so jobs, an estimated 93,000 people are self-employed (23% of tech jobs). And the belief is that there are around 2,500 to 4,100 active “startups.”
Zooming out, it is also one of the fastest growing industries in the city:
To try and put this into perspective, a similar report for New York – published in 2014 – reported 291,000 tech jobs out of 4.27 million people employed. I was a bit surprised by these numbers, but the Toronto report seems to have been modeled after the New York one. So presumably they use similar methodologies.
Of course, there’s the big question of quality over quantity. There’s a certainly a difference, in terms of impact to the economy, between a back office tech job and fast growing startup that will eventually reach the coveted $1 billion valuation number and create thousands of new jobs.
Obviously every city is hoping for the latter.
Cities will often talk in nebulous terms about being “world class.” That isn’t all that helpful. Let’s be specific and also acknowledge that great things cost money. Are we a top tourist destination? Are we a top convention destination? Are we attracting the smartest people in the world with the best schools? Do we have the best transit and health care systems in the world?
Toronto is a great city and so it’s perhaps easy to become complacent. But past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes. We need to think in global terms. We need to keep in mind that this is an international competition. And every day all of us step onto that field.
Thank you Joe for constantly reminding us of that.
Tech Toronto recently published a new study called,
They estimate that there are over 400,000 tech jobs in Toronto, out of a total of 2.7 million people employed. That number includes tech people working for non-tech companies, and tech and non-tech people working for tech companies. So tech jobs are thought to represent about 15% of the city’s employment.
Within this 400,000 or so jobs, an estimated 93,000 people are self-employed (23% of tech jobs). And the belief is that there are around 2,500 to 4,100 active “startups.”
Zooming out, it is also one of the fastest growing industries in the city:
To try and put this into perspective, a similar report for New York – published in 2014 – reported 291,000 tech jobs out of 4.27 million people employed. I was a bit surprised by these numbers, but the Toronto report seems to have been modeled after the New York one. So presumably they use similar methodologies.
Of course, there’s the big question of quality over quantity. There’s a certainly a difference, in terms of impact to the economy, between a back office tech job and fast growing startup that will eventually reach the coveted $1 billion valuation number and create thousands of new jobs.
