Pat Hanson of gh3* is absolutely right with her comment, here, about why we are seeing more windowless bedrooms being built in Toronto:
In much the same way, some of Toronto’s development policies encourage windowless bedrooms. “I don’t think it’s driven by cost,” says architect Pat Hanson, a founding principal of gh3* and a member of Waterfront Toronto’s Design Review Panel. “It’s driven a lot by building forms. Where you find a lot of these inboard bedrooms is in the mid-rise type.” The requirements to step back mid-rises on an angular plane, she adds, forces the developers to populate their projects with very deep units.
This condition is being driven by building forms and by overall housing affordability. Here is a post that I wrote on this exact topic back in 2017. The numbers are dated. I cited $857 per square foot as the average price of a downtown Toronto condo. But the forces at work remain the same.
And they are not entirely unique to apartments and condominiums. One of the reasons why many condominiums are becoming long and skinny -- and getting designed with windowless bedrooms -- is the same reason that many cities, like Toronto, have long and skinny single-family lots.
You can certainly find wider lots, but it'll cost you.
Urbanation is forecasting that approximately 27,000 condominium suites will finish construction and be ready for occupancy this year in the Greater Toronto Area. This is some sort of a record, and is naturally the result of record pre-construction sales over the last cycle.
This number is going to come down given that construction starts are declining, but before that, these suites will need to get absorbed into the market. And that's why I think that one of the biggest risks for our industry this year is going to be closing risk.
In other words, you've got the pre-sales, but will the purchasers actually show up and close on their homes?
It is for this exact reason that most/all construction lenders want to see pre-construction purchasers pay at least 10% in deposits before they'll advance their loan. It is also why the most risk-averse developers won't start construction until they have even more than 10% sitting in trust. The more hard money a purchaser has paid, the more likely they are to close.
It can be easy to forget this when the market is on fire and you're more preoccupied with holding back inventory because you think that sale prices will be higher in the future. But it's prudent to remember these times. They are a naturally occurring part of real estate cycles.
The most risk adverse execution strategies will likely leave some money on the table in the best of times. You won't be profit maximizing. However, they'll leave you more protected in the worst of times. That's how risk and reward work.
Last year in the Greater Toronto Area, condominium construction starts fell to a 9-year low of 15,891 homes. And this year, condominium construction starts are forecasted to fall to a 15-year low of 11,500 homes (though new sales are expected to rebound). Both of these figures are from Urbanation's Q4-2023 market data.
One possible explanation for this drop in construction starts could be that developers are somehow colluding to keep supply low and prices high. Another one could be that more developers are right now independently speculating that prices will be higher in the future, and so they think it's better to just wait. But both of these explanations would be wrong.
The correct answer is that more developers are unable to start construction because the market isn't there. In the case of Toronto's condominium market, this means that the pre-sales aren't there. This might seem obvious, but there seems to always be a contingent of people who believe that developers can choose to build whenever they want.
It is for this same reason that some people think that zoning approvals should have an expiry date. Call it a use-it-or-lose-it approach. But as I think we can see in the above numbers, developers don't control the market. And so I would never want to be in a position where I need to start construction by a certain date, or else.
That's not entirely within my control. In fact, sometimes it's completely out of my control.