Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Above is map from Brian Potter (over at Construction Physics) that shows every census tract in the US where vacation homes make up 20% or more of the total number of homes. What you are seeing is a relatively small number of census tracts — 3,372 out of a total of 84,414 (~4%).
But more than half of all vacation homes are in one of these tracts. And nearly 20% of vacation homes are in a census tract where more than 50% of the homes are vacation homes. So in other words: vacation homes in the US tend to be highly concentrated.
According to Potter, there are, perhaps not surprisingly, three main drivers of demand: beaches, lakes, and ski resorts. This is why if you drill down into Florida — which has the highest absolute number of vacation homes in the US at over 800k — you'll see that these homes are not evenly distributed across the state. They're on the coasts, and to a lesser extent inland near places like Disney World.
Also noteworthy is the fact that these census tracts tend to match up nicely with the location of ski resorts. Here's the same map of the US but with ski resorts overlaid:
And here's a close up of Salt Lake City and Park City, because, I love Park City:
As of Q1-2025, the US had over 147 million homes, and somewhere around 4.3 million of these were seasonal or vacation homes. If you'd like to better understand where these are and the trends surrounding them, I recommend you check out Potter's post.
Maps via Construction Physics; cover photo by Joe Ol on Unsplash
Sprawl is how much of the US provides new housing, and so it's interesting to ask the opposite question: Which cities are actually building new housing in walkable neighborhoods? Here is a study published this week by the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley that looked at exactly this. What they did was divide all US neighborhoods into five categories based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per resident in 2023.
The categories:
Very Low VMT - 12 miles per person per day
Low VMT - 17.3 miles per person per day
Mid VMT - 21 miles per person per day
High VMT - 25.5 miles per person per day
Very High VMT - 37.5 miles per person day
These seem like oddly specific distances, but it's what they used to sort new housing supply. Here's all of the US:
Salt Lake City has two recently completed luxury multi-family developments. Or perhaps I should say, at least two.
The first is The Worthington by Chicago-based developer Convexity Properties. It has 31 floors and 359 apartments. Leasing started last summer and seems to be going well.
The second is the Astra Tower by Kensington Investment Company, which is being managed by Greystar. It has 41 floors, 377 apartments, and is 451 feet tall, making it the tallest building in the state of Utah. Construction was completed at the beginning of this year and, according to Building Salt Lake, it's already about 30% occupied with full stabilization forecasted for summer 2026.
It's interesting to compare these projects to multi-family developments here in Toronto.
First of all, the reported average rent for Astra is US$3 per square foot, which works out to ~C$4.19 psf for us Canadians at today's exchange rate. I would say that this is at least ~15% lower compared to where I would expect most Toronto developers are underwriting new projects. This suggests to me that it's more cost effective to build in SLC.
The product is also different. On Astra's website, they have two virtual tours.
The first is for a studio apartment at 554 sf and the second is for a one bedroom at 788 sf. These are meaningfully larger than new apartments in Toronto. Here, the first would have to be a one bedroom and the second would be
Above is map from Brian Potter (over at Construction Physics) that shows every census tract in the US where vacation homes make up 20% or more of the total number of homes. What you are seeing is a relatively small number of census tracts — 3,372 out of a total of 84,414 (~4%).
But more than half of all vacation homes are in one of these tracts. And nearly 20% of vacation homes are in a census tract where more than 50% of the homes are vacation homes. So in other words: vacation homes in the US tend to be highly concentrated.
According to Potter, there are, perhaps not surprisingly, three main drivers of demand: beaches, lakes, and ski resorts. This is why if you drill down into Florida — which has the highest absolute number of vacation homes in the US at over 800k — you'll see that these homes are not evenly distributed across the state. They're on the coasts, and to a lesser extent inland near places like Disney World.
Also noteworthy is the fact that these census tracts tend to match up nicely with the location of ski resorts. Here's the same map of the US but with ski resorts overlaid:
And here's a close up of Salt Lake City and Park City, because, I love Park City:
As of Q1-2025, the US had over 147 million homes, and somewhere around 4.3 million of these were seasonal or vacation homes. If you'd like to better understand where these are and the trends surrounding them, I recommend you check out Potter's post.
Maps via Construction Physics; cover photo by Joe Ol on Unsplash
Sprawl is how much of the US provides new housing, and so it's interesting to ask the opposite question: Which cities are actually building new housing in walkable neighborhoods? Here is a study published this week by the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley that looked at exactly this. What they did was divide all US neighborhoods into five categories based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per resident in 2023.
The categories:
Very Low VMT - 12 miles per person per day
Low VMT - 17.3 miles per person per day
Mid VMT - 21 miles per person per day
High VMT - 25.5 miles per person per day
Very High VMT - 37.5 miles per person day
These seem like oddly specific distances, but it's what they used to sort new housing supply. Here's all of the US:
Salt Lake City has two recently completed luxury multi-family developments. Or perhaps I should say, at least two.
The first is The Worthington by Chicago-based developer Convexity Properties. It has 31 floors and 359 apartments. Leasing started last summer and seems to be going well.
The second is the Astra Tower by Kensington Investment Company, which is being managed by Greystar. It has 41 floors, 377 apartments, and is 451 feet tall, making it the tallest building in the state of Utah. Construction was completed at the beginning of this year and, according to Building Salt Lake, it's already about 30% occupied with full stabilization forecasted for summer 2026.
It's interesting to compare these projects to multi-family developments here in Toronto.
First of all, the reported average rent for Astra is US$3 per square foot, which works out to ~C$4.19 psf for us Canadians at today's exchange rate. I would say that this is at least ~15% lower compared to where I would expect most Toronto developers are underwriting new projects. This suggests to me that it's more cost effective to build in SLC.
The product is also different. On Astra's website, they have two virtual tours.
The first is for a studio apartment at 554 sf and the second is for a one bedroom at 788 sf. These are meaningfully larger than new apartments in Toronto. Here, the first would have to be a one bedroom and the second would be
Since the 1950s, new home production in very low VMT neighborhoods has generally been declining. Most of the lower VMT stuff was built before the 1940s, which is why New York City is so walkable and its chart looks like this:
Most newer cities do not build in this way. In fact, based on this study, there are only five large metro areas in the US that have (1) built at least 15% of their total housing since 2000 (meaning, they're a younger city) and (2) built at least 40% of their homes over the last decade in lower-VMT neighborhoods (very low and low).
These metro regions are:
This is not that many cities. At the same time, is it even the right benchmark to be aspiring to? "Lower VMT" just means you don't need to drive as much as you might in other neighborhoods. But it doesn't necessarily mean that you live in an amenity-rich and walkable community. What about the new homes being built in neighborhoods where people don't need a car at all? How many of these exist?
Very few, I'm sure.
Cover photo by Jo Heubeck & Domi Pfenninger on Unsplash
Every market has its nuances. In the case of SLC, the model suites appear to be very clearly competing with low-rise housing. The one bedroom has a dedicated entrance foyer, there's a separate dining area, and the bedroom has carpet, among other things. It reminds me of earlier multi-family vintages in Toronto.
Of course, one really unique feature you get here is views of the Wasatch mountain range (see cover photo above). It's a special feeling being in an urban center where you have mountains all around you, and it's one of the primary reasons why an increasing number of people are being drawn to Utah.
Congratulations to the team on successfully completing such an ambitious project. It's exciting to see SLC continue to grow and urbanize.
Cover photo via the Astra Tower
Since the 1950s, new home production in very low VMT neighborhoods has generally been declining. Most of the lower VMT stuff was built before the 1940s, which is why New York City is so walkable and its chart looks like this:
Most newer cities do not build in this way. In fact, based on this study, there are only five large metro areas in the US that have (1) built at least 15% of their total housing since 2000 (meaning, they're a younger city) and (2) built at least 40% of their homes over the last decade in lower-VMT neighborhoods (very low and low).
These metro regions are:
This is not that many cities. At the same time, is it even the right benchmark to be aspiring to? "Lower VMT" just means you don't need to drive as much as you might in other neighborhoods. But it doesn't necessarily mean that you live in an amenity-rich and walkable community. What about the new homes being built in neighborhoods where people don't need a car at all? How many of these exist?
Very few, I'm sure.
Cover photo by Jo Heubeck & Domi Pfenninger on Unsplash
Every market has its nuances. In the case of SLC, the model suites appear to be very clearly competing with low-rise housing. The one bedroom has a dedicated entrance foyer, there's a separate dining area, and the bedroom has carpet, among other things. It reminds me of earlier multi-family vintages in Toronto.
Of course, one really unique feature you get here is views of the Wasatch mountain range (see cover photo above). It's a special feeling being in an urban center where you have mountains all around you, and it's one of the primary reasons why an increasing number of people are being drawn to Utah.
Congratulations to the team on successfully completing such an ambitious project. It's exciting to see SLC continue to grow and urbanize.
Cover photo via the Astra Tower
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