It has been over four years since the Surfside tragedy in South Florida and the partial collapse of the 12-storey Champlain Towers South building. In response to this, the state of Florida enacted stricter condominium regulations. Buildings over 30 years old (or over 25 years if located within three miles of a coast) must now undergo mandatory structural inspections. Condominium reserve funds are also required to be fully funded, and owners can no longer waive or reduce the contributions. Surprisingly, this was not the case before.
It has been over four years since the Surfside tragedy in South Florida and the partial collapse of the 12-storey Champlain Towers South building. In response to this, the state of Florida enacted stricter condominium regulations. Buildings over 30 years old (or over 25 years if located within three miles of a coast) must now undergo mandatory structural inspections. Condominium reserve funds are also required to be fully funded, and owners can no longer waive or reduce the contributions. Surprisingly, this was not the case before.
The site itself has also moved forward. In May 2022, Dubai-based DAMAC International acquired the 1.8-acre parcel for $120 million. They hired Zaha Hadid Architects (ZHA) and, in 2023, submitted designs to the Town of Surfside. Earlier this year, pre-construction condominium sales launched for The Delmore — with a starting price of $15 million and an average price of $40 million. And this month, the developer announced that they have secured a foundation permit.
With only 37 condominiums in the project, the land cost alone works out to over $3.2 million per suite.
When I was in Miami at the end of last year for the Elevate real estate conference, I was given the impression that every new development project has a luxury brand associated with it and that buyers from all over the world still have an insatiable demand for the city. The Toronto developers in the room had no choice but to commiserate amongst each other and make up excuses for why abundant sunshine and low taxes couldn't possibly be that nice.
But things seem to be changing quickly in Miami. I am seeing reports that the condominium market continues to soften and that unsold inventory is starting to accumulate. This seems to be happening for a bunch of reasons: lots of supply, relatively high interest rates, higher insurance costs (due to climate things), more stringent reserve funding requirements (following the tragic collapse of the Surfside tower), and perhaps even the hostile environment that the US is now creating for foreigners.
I don't have clear data for the pre-construction side of the market (like I do for Toronto), but typically you need a strong resale market to support new development. And that's because pre-construction pricing tends to be higher than resale pricing. If the latter is softening, then the value proposition for something new is weakened. On top of all this, there's right now a
According to the WSJ, the US office market saw a significant increase in leasing activity in the first quarter of this year. Approximately 115 million square feet of space was leased, which represents a 13% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level since before the pandemic in mid-2019.
But then, tariffs for everybody! Now tenants are worried that a recession is coming, inflation is going to rise, and that so too will interest rates. Uncertainty is bad for business.
The national office vacancy rate was 19.7% at the end of February 2025
San Francisco had the highest vacancy at 27.8%
$7 billion worth of office sales were recorded in the first two months of the year and the average price was $177 per square foot
The cheapest markets are/were in the midwest with Minneapolis-Saint Paul recording the lowest average sale price of $50 per square foot (versus $215 psf a year ago)
Chicago averaged $67 psf
The most expensive markets were places like San Diego ($662 psf), Manhattan ($450 psf), San Francisco ($282 psf), Miami ($239 psf), and Los Angeles ($207 psf) — we continue to see a flight to quality
Maybe things will get better later this year, or maybe they won't. It's impossible to know what comes next in this trade war.
The site itself has also moved forward. In May 2022, Dubai-based DAMAC International acquired the 1.8-acre parcel for $120 million. They hired Zaha Hadid Architects (ZHA) and, in 2023, submitted designs to the Town of Surfside. Earlier this year, pre-construction condominium sales launched for The Delmore — with a starting price of $15 million and an average price of $40 million. And this month, the developer announced that they have secured a foundation permit.
With only 37 condominiums in the project, the land cost alone works out to over $3.2 million per suite.
When I was in Miami at the end of last year for the Elevate real estate conference, I was given the impression that every new development project has a luxury brand associated with it and that buyers from all over the world still have an insatiable demand for the city. The Toronto developers in the room had no choice but to commiserate amongst each other and make up excuses for why abundant sunshine and low taxes couldn't possibly be that nice.
But things seem to be changing quickly in Miami. I am seeing reports that the condominium market continues to soften and that unsold inventory is starting to accumulate. This seems to be happening for a bunch of reasons: lots of supply, relatively high interest rates, higher insurance costs (due to climate things), more stringent reserve funding requirements (following the tragic collapse of the Surfside tower), and perhaps even the hostile environment that the US is now creating for foreigners.
I don't have clear data for the pre-construction side of the market (like I do for Toronto), but typically you need a strong resale market to support new development. And that's because pre-construction pricing tends to be higher than resale pricing. If the latter is softening, then the value proposition for something new is weakened. On top of all this, there's right now a
According to the WSJ, the US office market saw a significant increase in leasing activity in the first quarter of this year. Approximately 115 million square feet of space was leased, which represents a 13% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level since before the pandemic in mid-2019.
But then, tariffs for everybody! Now tenants are worried that a recession is coming, inflation is going to rise, and that so too will interest rates. Uncertainty is bad for business.
The national office vacancy rate was 19.7% at the end of February 2025
San Francisco had the highest vacancy at 27.8%
$7 billion worth of office sales were recorded in the first two months of the year and the average price was $177 per square foot
The cheapest markets are/were in the midwest with Minneapolis-Saint Paul recording the lowest average sale price of $50 per square foot (versus $215 psf a year ago)
Chicago averaged $67 psf
The most expensive markets were places like San Diego ($662 psf), Manhattan ($450 psf), San Francisco ($282 psf), Miami ($239 psf), and Los Angeles ($207 psf) — we continue to see a flight to quality
Maybe things will get better later this year, or maybe they won't. It's impossible to know what comes next in this trade war.
