Grocery shopping is one of those things that -- despite a lot of people really trying -- has remained a stubbornly in-person activity. However, the pandemic did give online grocery shopping a significant boost, and lot of that has stuck, even if it has been trending slightly downward from its peak. Here are a few slides from Dan Frommer's
Grocery shopping is one of those things that -- despite a lot of people really trying -- has remained a stubbornly in-person activity. However, the pandemic did give online grocery shopping a significant boost, and lot of that has stuck, even if it has been trending slightly downward from its peak. Here are a few slides from Dan Frommer's
Part of the challenge may be that the majority of people say they actually like grocery shopping, and doing so in a physical store:
So it is very possible that, for the foreseeable future, there will always be a large segment of buyers who prefer to shop in-store. But then again, if you asked me these same questions, I would also tell you that I like grocery shopping and that I prefer buying in-store. However, that doesn't mean I wouldn't be open to alternatives. I just haven't explored and found a suitable online option.
At the same time, and according to the same Consumer Trends Survey, about 10% of Americans say they currently dislike grocery shopping. Maybe this is the same 10% who are right now shopping online. Either way, this is already a large segment of people who would rather not go into a grocery store.
Intuitively, as the online offerings get better, one would expect this number to grow. Here, for example, is an interesting overview of the service Hungryroot. One part "meal kit" delivery and one part online grocery shopping, the company uses machine learning and algorithms to determine what its customers might want to buy. Already, about 70% of what it sells is picked automatically.
On the back end, McKean explains, among other actions, Hungryroot is “clustering” its new customer with other users who have answered its onboarding survey similarly and have already been with the service for multiple years. “And so we can say, ‘okay, people who filled out that signup flow like you… they loved these top recipes with high probability, so we think you’re going to love these recipes with high probability’.”
What I like about this is that it requires fewer decisions; it has the potential to feel like you have a private chef (one that learns what you like and adjusts accordingly); and it promotes dietary variety. For the typical American, 75% of what they buy in a grocery store is the exact same as what they bought the last time. There's very little variety, because it's always easier not to have to think.
Given this stat, it is maybe surprising that this 75% hasn't become more automated for more people. Perhaps it's the 25% that keeps most of us going into stores. I'm not sure, but I think I'm ready to try a service like Hungryroot.
Back in 2018, Amazon opened its first cashier-less grocery store. The technology -- which it later branded as "Just Walk Out" -- was intended to allow customers to do exactly that. All you had to do was put items into your cart and walk out of the store. And then, through the magic of sophisticated computer vision, machine learning, and lots of sensors, you would be billed and sent a receipt.
However, this month the company announced that it will be moving away from this technology, and instead focusing on its Dash Carts (more on this shortly). It turns out that the technology wasn't nearly automated enough.
Last year, The Information reported that "Just Walk Out" was relying on at least 1,000 off-site workers in India to constantly review video footage and figure out who had bought what. This is why it apparently took so long to receive a bill sometimes; humans far away were working to figure out if that was a persimmon in your hand, or a tomato.
I'm not an expert on this space, but I'm guessing it is not (yet) feasible to do what Uniqlo and other retailers now do with their supply chains and checkouts. So this was the workaround. Whatever the case, Amazon has now said that it will be focusing on its Dash Carts, which are kind of like roaming checkout counters. They come with screens and scales for weighing things.
Obviously the ideal solution is to not have to do or scan anything. But being able to avoid check-out lines still feels like meaningful progress. I just wonder if these smart carts will encourage or discourage spending. Because now everyone will have a live receipt in front of them. That might discourage spending unless you can offset it with rewards and/or other incentives.
One of the reasons why "new small-scale retail, service, and office uses" are now permitted in low-rise neighborhoods of Toronto -- and why many are on to talking about these uses in our laneways -- is because it's a way to serve the "needs of residents" and "reduce local automobile trips". But what are these needs exactly? And if you had to choose only one, what would it be?
Let me provide some further background.
According to this mapping, 94% of Parisians live within a 5-minute walk of a bakery. And according to this mapping, 94% of people in Mexico City live within a 5-minute walk of a taqueria. So in other words, these two cities seem to have the kind of "small-scale retail, service, and office uses" that satisfy at least some of the needs of their residents.
People in Paris need bread. And people in Mexico City need tacos. But what do people in Toronto need? I'm not sure we have a perfectly parallel thing. But according to Instacart, the top-selling grocery item last year across both the US and Canada was -- bananas. One and four carts typically contain them, and apparently this number has remained fairly consistent.
So maybe this should be our small-scale retail and walkability test metric: What % of the population lives within a 5-minute walk of fresh bananas? (I'm open to other food suggestions here.)
Part of the challenge may be that the majority of people say they actually like grocery shopping, and doing so in a physical store:
So it is very possible that, for the foreseeable future, there will always be a large segment of buyers who prefer to shop in-store. But then again, if you asked me these same questions, I would also tell you that I like grocery shopping and that I prefer buying in-store. However, that doesn't mean I wouldn't be open to alternatives. I just haven't explored and found a suitable online option.
At the same time, and according to the same Consumer Trends Survey, about 10% of Americans say they currently dislike grocery shopping. Maybe this is the same 10% who are right now shopping online. Either way, this is already a large segment of people who would rather not go into a grocery store.
Intuitively, as the online offerings get better, one would expect this number to grow. Here, for example, is an interesting overview of the service Hungryroot. One part "meal kit" delivery and one part online grocery shopping, the company uses machine learning and algorithms to determine what its customers might want to buy. Already, about 70% of what it sells is picked automatically.
On the back end, McKean explains, among other actions, Hungryroot is “clustering” its new customer with other users who have answered its onboarding survey similarly and have already been with the service for multiple years. “And so we can say, ‘okay, people who filled out that signup flow like you… they loved these top recipes with high probability, so we think you’re going to love these recipes with high probability’.”
What I like about this is that it requires fewer decisions; it has the potential to feel like you have a private chef (one that learns what you like and adjusts accordingly); and it promotes dietary variety. For the typical American, 75% of what they buy in a grocery store is the exact same as what they bought the last time. There's very little variety, because it's always easier not to have to think.
Given this stat, it is maybe surprising that this 75% hasn't become more automated for more people. Perhaps it's the 25% that keeps most of us going into stores. I'm not sure, but I think I'm ready to try a service like Hungryroot.
Back in 2018, Amazon opened its first cashier-less grocery store. The technology -- which it later branded as "Just Walk Out" -- was intended to allow customers to do exactly that. All you had to do was put items into your cart and walk out of the store. And then, through the magic of sophisticated computer vision, machine learning, and lots of sensors, you would be billed and sent a receipt.
However, this month the company announced that it will be moving away from this technology, and instead focusing on its Dash Carts (more on this shortly). It turns out that the technology wasn't nearly automated enough.
Last year, The Information reported that "Just Walk Out" was relying on at least 1,000 off-site workers in India to constantly review video footage and figure out who had bought what. This is why it apparently took so long to receive a bill sometimes; humans far away were working to figure out if that was a persimmon in your hand, or a tomato.
I'm not an expert on this space, but I'm guessing it is not (yet) feasible to do what Uniqlo and other retailers now do with their supply chains and checkouts. So this was the workaround. Whatever the case, Amazon has now said that it will be focusing on its Dash Carts, which are kind of like roaming checkout counters. They come with screens and scales for weighing things.
Obviously the ideal solution is to not have to do or scan anything. But being able to avoid check-out lines still feels like meaningful progress. I just wonder if these smart carts will encourage or discourage spending. Because now everyone will have a live receipt in front of them. That might discourage spending unless you can offset it with rewards and/or other incentives.
One of the reasons why "new small-scale retail, service, and office uses" are now permitted in low-rise neighborhoods of Toronto -- and why many are on to talking about these uses in our laneways -- is because it's a way to serve the "needs of residents" and "reduce local automobile trips". But what are these needs exactly? And if you had to choose only one, what would it be?
Let me provide some further background.
According to this mapping, 94% of Parisians live within a 5-minute walk of a bakery. And according to this mapping, 94% of people in Mexico City live within a 5-minute walk of a taqueria. So in other words, these two cities seem to have the kind of "small-scale retail, service, and office uses" that satisfy at least some of the needs of their residents.
People in Paris need bread. And people in Mexico City need tacos. But what do people in Toronto need? I'm not sure we have a perfectly parallel thing. But according to Instacart, the top-selling grocery item last year across both the US and Canada was -- bananas. One and four carts typically contain them, and apparently this number has remained fairly consistent.
So maybe this should be our small-scale retail and walkability test metric: What % of the population lives within a 5-minute walk of fresh bananas? (I'm open to other food suggestions here.)
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