Grocery shopping is one of those things that -- despite a lot of people really trying -- has remained a stubbornly in-person activity. However, the pandemic did give online grocery shopping a significant boost, and lot of that has stuck, even if it has been trending slightly downward from its peak. Here are a few slides from Dan Frommer's
Grocery shopping is one of those things that -- despite a lot of people really trying -- has remained a stubbornly in-person activity. However, the pandemic did give online grocery shopping a significant boost, and lot of that has stuck, even if it has been trending slightly downward from its peak. Here are a few slides from Dan Frommer's
Part of the challenge may be that the majority of people say they actually like grocery shopping, and doing so in a physical store:
So it is very possible that, for the foreseeable future, there will always be a large segment of buyers who prefer to shop in-store. But then again, if you asked me these same questions, I would also tell you that I like grocery shopping and that I prefer buying in-store. However, that doesn't mean I wouldn't be open to alternatives. I just haven't explored and found a suitable online option.
At the same time, and according to the same Consumer Trends Survey, about 10% of Americans say they currently dislike grocery shopping. Maybe this is the same 10% who are right now shopping online. Either way, this is already a large segment of people who would rather not go into a grocery store.
Intuitively, as the online offerings get better, one would expect this number to grow. Here, for example, is an interesting overview of the service Hungryroot. One part "meal kit" delivery and one part online grocery shopping, the company uses machine learning and algorithms to determine what its customers might want to buy. Already, about 70% of what it sells is picked automatically.
On the back end, McKean explains, among other actions, Hungryroot is “clustering” its new customer with other users who have answered its onboarding survey similarly and have already been with the service for multiple years. “And so we can say, ‘okay, people who filled out that signup flow like you… they loved these top recipes with high probability, so we think you’re going to love these recipes with high probability’.”
What I like about this is that it requires fewer decisions; it has the potential to feel like you have a private chef (one that learns what you like and adjusts accordingly); and it promotes dietary variety. For the typical American, 75% of what they buy in a grocery store is the exact same as what they bought the last time. There's very little variety, because it's always easier not to have to think.
Given this stat, it is maybe surprising that this 75% hasn't become more automated for more people. Perhaps it's the 25% that keeps most of us going into stores. I'm not sure, but I think I'm ready to try a service like Hungryroot.
One perfectly sound approach is to just be the cheapest. This often entails lower margins, but hopefully higher volumes. However, the problem with this approach is that it can become a race to the bottom. At some point, somebody will find a new corner to cut. As Seth Godin says, "the problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win."
On the other end of the spectrum is this approach:
Part of the challenge may be that the majority of people say they actually like grocery shopping, and doing so in a physical store:
So it is very possible that, for the foreseeable future, there will always be a large segment of buyers who prefer to shop in-store. But then again, if you asked me these same questions, I would also tell you that I like grocery shopping and that I prefer buying in-store. However, that doesn't mean I wouldn't be open to alternatives. I just haven't explored and found a suitable online option.
At the same time, and according to the same Consumer Trends Survey, about 10% of Americans say they currently dislike grocery shopping. Maybe this is the same 10% who are right now shopping online. Either way, this is already a large segment of people who would rather not go into a grocery store.
Intuitively, as the online offerings get better, one would expect this number to grow. Here, for example, is an interesting overview of the service Hungryroot. One part "meal kit" delivery and one part online grocery shopping, the company uses machine learning and algorithms to determine what its customers might want to buy. Already, about 70% of what it sells is picked automatically.
On the back end, McKean explains, among other actions, Hungryroot is “clustering” its new customer with other users who have answered its onboarding survey similarly and have already been with the service for multiple years. “And so we can say, ‘okay, people who filled out that signup flow like you… they loved these top recipes with high probability, so we think you’re going to love these recipes with high probability’.”
What I like about this is that it requires fewer decisions; it has the potential to feel like you have a private chef (one that learns what you like and adjusts accordingly); and it promotes dietary variety. For the typical American, 75% of what they buy in a grocery store is the exact same as what they bought the last time. There's very little variety, because it's always easier not to have to think.
Given this stat, it is maybe surprising that this 75% hasn't become more automated for more people. Perhaps it's the 25% that keeps most of us going into stores. I'm not sure, but I think I'm ready to try a service like Hungryroot.
One perfectly sound approach is to just be the cheapest. This often entails lower margins, but hopefully higher volumes. However, the problem with this approach is that it can become a race to the bottom. At some point, somebody will find a new corner to cut. As Seth Godin says, "the problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win."
On the other end of the spectrum is this approach:
This is a pamphlet describing full ripeness mangoes from the Miyazaki prefecture in Japan. These are not the cheapest mangoes around. In fact, it's the opposite; they're generally known to be the world's most expensive. But they will almost certainly be the best mangoes that you've ever tasted. And you'll only be able to get them between the months of April and August.
Sometimes it's possible to be both cheaper and better. And that's obviously an ideal position to be in. But in many, or perhaps most cases, you'll need to choose. Cheaper, or that much better.
My friend David Wex recently opened up a new bar called Lisbon Hotel, and this evening I went to check it out with him. It's not in Lisbon. And it's not a hotel. But it is deliberately designed to feel like a hotel lobby bar, and it is a great place for drinks and snacks. I recommend both of the dishes pictured above -- especially the cucumber and dill one.
It's also housed in the River City community, which his firm Urban Capital developed. And I think that's something. Developers are often criticized when they put in boring (yet profitable) uses in the ground floors of their buildings. And this is not that (though hopefully it's still profitable). This is him and his partners wanting to do something cool and help create a "place."
Who said new ideas need old buildings? Rhetorical question. It was Jane Jacobs who said this.
This is a pamphlet describing full ripeness mangoes from the Miyazaki prefecture in Japan. These are not the cheapest mangoes around. In fact, it's the opposite; they're generally known to be the world's most expensive. But they will almost certainly be the best mangoes that you've ever tasted. And you'll only be able to get them between the months of April and August.
Sometimes it's possible to be both cheaper and better. And that's obviously an ideal position to be in. But in many, or perhaps most cases, you'll need to choose. Cheaper, or that much better.
My friend David Wex recently opened up a new bar called Lisbon Hotel, and this evening I went to check it out with him. It's not in Lisbon. And it's not a hotel. But it is deliberately designed to feel like a hotel lobby bar, and it is a great place for drinks and snacks. I recommend both of the dishes pictured above -- especially the cucumber and dill one.
It's also housed in the River City community, which his firm Urban Capital developed. And I think that's something. Developers are often criticized when they put in boring (yet profitable) uses in the ground floors of their buildings. And this is not that (though hopefully it's still profitable). This is him and his partners wanting to do something cool and help create a "place."
Who said new ideas need old buildings? Rhetorical question. It was Jane Jacobs who said this.