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One of the themes we cover on this blog is the importance of place in a world where people are becoming increasingly untethered. While I'm a firm believer that great local places have enduring value, this does not mean that technology isn't driving greater fluidity in the way people live, work, play, and optimize their taxes.
Over the last decade, the population of ultra-wealthy Americans (those with a net worth greater than or equal to $30 million) has risen noticeably in two states: Texas and Florida. California, a high-tax state, still dominates; however, Texas has overtaken New York, and Florida has overtaken Illinois. Notably, both Texas and Florida have no state income tax — they also have warmer weather than New York and Illinois.
As we have talked about before, there's a longstanding migration trend in the US toward sun, urban sprawl, and lower taxes. But it's not always as clear-cut as a rich person fully relocating to a lower-tax jurisdiction and completely severing ties. The enduring value of place means that many people still travel back and forth to meet whatever personal or professional obligations they might have.
And today, there are apps, such as TaxBird, that will meticulously track the number of days you spend (or your phone spends) in each jurisdiction to ensure you don't cross any important residency thresholds.
The global standard is the 183-day rule (or roughly half a year). In many or most cases, if you are physically present in a place for more than 50% of the year, you are automatically considered a resident for tax purposes. But it's not always this simple, so check with your tax advisor. Regardless, the untethering of life and work is surely allowing more people to tax-optimize in this way.
None of this is surprising.
As Charlie Munger used to say, "Show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome." But now we need to think about the longer-term ramifications for colder, higher-tax jurisdictions as capital and tax revenue continue to be siphoned off, not only to Texas and Florida, but to Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Monaco and other places.
Cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash
It has been over four years since the Surfside tragedy in South Florida and the partial collapse of the 12-storey Champlain Towers South building. In response to this, the state of Florida enacted stricter condominium regulations. Buildings over 30 years old (or over 25 years if located within three miles of a coast) must now undergo mandatory structural inspections. Condominium reserve funds are also required to be fully funded, and owners can no longer waive or reduce the contributions. Surprisingly, this was not the case before.
The site itself has also moved forward. In May 2022, Dubai-based DAMAC International acquired the 1.8-acre parcel for $120 million. They hired Zaha Hadid Architects (ZHA) and, in 2023, submitted designs to the Town of Surfside. Earlier this year, pre-construction condominium sales launched for The Delmore — with a starting price of $15 million and an average price of $40 million. And this month, the developer announced that they have secured a foundation permit.
With only 37 condominiums in the project, the land cost alone works out to over $3.2 million per suite.
Rendering via DAMAC
Based on a recent study by the National Association of Realtors (which is a study based on realtor surveys), foreign buyers bought approximately $56 billion worth of residential real estate in the US between April 2024 and March 2025. This represents about 2.5% of all existing-home sales and is the first year-over-year increase since 2017.
One of the themes we cover on this blog is the importance of place in a world where people are becoming increasingly untethered. While I'm a firm believer that great local places have enduring value, this does not mean that technology isn't driving greater fluidity in the way people live, work, play, and optimize their taxes.
Over the last decade, the population of ultra-wealthy Americans (those with a net worth greater than or equal to $30 million) has risen noticeably in two states: Texas and Florida. California, a high-tax state, still dominates; however, Texas has overtaken New York, and Florida has overtaken Illinois. Notably, both Texas and Florida have no state income tax — they also have warmer weather than New York and Illinois.
As we have talked about before, there's a longstanding migration trend in the US toward sun, urban sprawl, and lower taxes. But it's not always as clear-cut as a rich person fully relocating to a lower-tax jurisdiction and completely severing ties. The enduring value of place means that many people still travel back and forth to meet whatever personal or professional obligations they might have.
And today, there are apps, such as TaxBird, that will meticulously track the number of days you spend (or your phone spends) in each jurisdiction to ensure you don't cross any important residency thresholds.
The global standard is the 183-day rule (or roughly half a year). In many or most cases, if you are physically present in a place for more than 50% of the year, you are automatically considered a resident for tax purposes. But it's not always this simple, so check with your tax advisor. Regardless, the untethering of life and work is surely allowing more people to tax-optimize in this way.
None of this is surprising.
As Charlie Munger used to say, "Show me the incentive, and I'll show you the outcome." But now we need to think about the longer-term ramifications for colder, higher-tax jurisdictions as capital and tax revenue continue to be siphoned off, not only to Texas and Florida, but to Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Monaco and other places.
Cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash
It has been over four years since the Surfside tragedy in South Florida and the partial collapse of the 12-storey Champlain Towers South building. In response to this, the state of Florida enacted stricter condominium regulations. Buildings over 30 years old (or over 25 years if located within three miles of a coast) must now undergo mandatory structural inspections. Condominium reserve funds are also required to be fully funded, and owners can no longer waive or reduce the contributions. Surprisingly, this was not the case before.
The site itself has also moved forward. In May 2022, Dubai-based DAMAC International acquired the 1.8-acre parcel for $120 million. They hired Zaha Hadid Architects (ZHA) and, in 2023, submitted designs to the Town of Surfside. Earlier this year, pre-construction condominium sales launched for The Delmore — with a starting price of $15 million and an average price of $40 million. And this month, the developer announced that they have secured a foundation permit.
With only 37 condominiums in the project, the land cost alone works out to over $3.2 million per suite.
Rendering via DAMAC
Based on a recent study by the National Association of Realtors (which is a study based on realtor surveys), foreign buyers bought approximately $56 billion worth of residential real estate in the US between April 2024 and March 2025. This represents about 2.5% of all existing-home sales and is the first year-over-year increase since 2017.
56% of these purchases were by people who legally reside in the US but who are not US citizens. And the remaining 44% were by foreign buyers who live abroad.
Here are the top 5 countries of origin:
China: 15%; 11,700; $13.7 billion
Canada: 14%; 10,900; $6.2 billion
Mexico: 8%; 6,200; $4.4 billion
India: 6%; 4,700; $2.2 billion
United Kingdom: 4%; 3,100; $2 billion
And here are the top 5 destinations:
Florida: 21%
California: 15%
Texas: 10%
New York: 7%
Arizona: 5%
What is clear is that foreign demand has fallen dramatically since 2017. This is likely due to stronger capital controls on money leaving China, a stronger US dollar, rising home prices, and other factors. It's worth noting that this data is up until March 2025 — so right before "Liberation Day." It'll be interesting to see the effects of the current geopolitical climate on next year's data.
Also interesting is the fact that if you go back to the 2008 financial crisis, Canadians made up almost a quarter of all foreign buyers. Let's call it 2008 to 2013. This is not surprising. Our economy fared better during the crisis and the Canadian and US dollars were near parity. It was an ideal time for Canadians to buy and, those who did, ultimately benefited from USD appreciation.
Foreigners buying homes tends not to be politically popular, especially when people are concerned about housing affordability. So I can't imagine that too many people are fussed by the fall off in demand since 2017. Still, it's a bellwether for global capital flows, confidence in the US economy, and wealth being created — or not be created — abroad.
Charts from the National Association of Realtors; cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash
56% of these purchases were by people who legally reside in the US but who are not US citizens. And the remaining 44% were by foreign buyers who live abroad.
Here are the top 5 countries of origin:
China: 15%; 11,700; $13.7 billion
Canada: 14%; 10,900; $6.2 billion
Mexico: 8%; 6,200; $4.4 billion
India: 6%; 4,700; $2.2 billion
United Kingdom: 4%; 3,100; $2 billion
And here are the top 5 destinations:
Florida: 21%
California: 15%
Texas: 10%
New York: 7%
Arizona: 5%
What is clear is that foreign demand has fallen dramatically since 2017. This is likely due to stronger capital controls on money leaving China, a stronger US dollar, rising home prices, and other factors. It's worth noting that this data is up until March 2025 — so right before "Liberation Day." It'll be interesting to see the effects of the current geopolitical climate on next year's data.
Also interesting is the fact that if you go back to the 2008 financial crisis, Canadians made up almost a quarter of all foreign buyers. Let's call it 2008 to 2013. This is not surprising. Our economy fared better during the crisis and the Canadian and US dollars were near parity. It was an ideal time for Canadians to buy and, those who did, ultimately benefited from USD appreciation.
Foreigners buying homes tends not to be politically popular, especially when people are concerned about housing affordability. So I can't imagine that too many people are fussed by the fall off in demand since 2017. Still, it's a bellwether for global capital flows, confidence in the US economy, and wealth being created — or not be created — abroad.
Charts from the National Association of Realtors; cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash
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