Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Tag: warren buffet

  • Fundamental and enduring

    I admire Warren Buffet’s humility:

    In the physical world, great buildings are linked to their architect while those who had poured the concrete or installed the windows are soon forgotten. Berkshire has become a great company. Though I have long been in charge of the construction crew; Charlie [Munger] should forever be credited with being the architect.

    This is an excerpt from his recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, which, this year, he opens up with an obituary to his late partner, Charlie Munger.

    I don’t agree with everything Warren says and writes. He, for instance, doesn’t seem to like crypto and streetcars. Though, surely, he’d really dig my CryptoParisian.

    That said, I never miss his letters and his thinking has been broadly instrumental in how I tend to think about real estate.

    If you take his description (same letter) of what Berkshire does, and replace businesses with properties, this is what you get:

    Our goal at Berkshire is simple: We want to own either all or a portion of [properties] that enjoy good economics that are fundamental and enduring. Within capitalism, some [properties] will flourish for a very long time while others will prove to be sinkholes. It’s harder than you would think to predict which will be the winners and losers.

    This is a good way to think about real estate.

  • Wonderful real estate

    At the highest level, I agree with the premise of this tweet from The Real Estate God. The overarching argument is that one’s main criteria for selecting a real estate market in which to enter should be “the place with the least competition.” And the reason for this is that less competition equals less price discovery, which then equals more mispriced assets and more opportunities to generate outsized returns.

    Going even further, the argument here is that you’re actually taking on less risk by buying mispriced assets in less competitive markets because you can model reality (things like in-place cash flows and market rents) as opposed to betting on the future (things like rental growth and/or cap rate compression). Said in a different way, it’s easier to find deals and “make money on the buy”; and, once again, I would mostly agree with this.

    But in my mind there’s a very important caveat. And it’s akin to the advice that the late Charlie Munger supposedly gave to Warren Buffet: “Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.” While it is true that you might find wonderful pricing in less competitive markets, there remains the question of whether you’re also buying wonderful real estate.

    And I think that’s an important consideration.

  • Cheap and wonderful

    One generally accepted investing adage is that you “make money on the buy”. Meaning, what you pay for an asset will largely determine your fate. Price matters a lot. Some/many would even argue that it’s the single most important thing when it comes to investing.

    Said differently, if you had to choose between paying above market for a high-quality real estate asset or paying below market for a low-quality real estate asset, you would choose the latter, because you have a higher probability of doing well.

    In some ways, I agree with this. If you’re buying an asset below what it’s actually worth, then in theory you could turn around and sell it tomorrow for the market price. So you are quite literally “making money on the buy.”

    On the other hand, if you’ve paid above market for even a high-quality asset, you’ve now just lost money (at least in the immediate term). Because if you also turned around and sold it tomorrow, you’d lose money.

    But is this always the right way to think about investing? One of Warren Buffett’s many famous lines is that he’d rather buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.

    And this would suggest that “cheap” isn’t the only metric to consider. Especially if you think like Buffett does and you want to hold assets forever and benefit from the compound growth that comes along with wonderful assets.

    So as obvious as it may seem, a better way to think about “making money on the buy” might be that you need to consider both price and the quality of the asset. Cheap could be a feature, or it could not be. But cheap and wonderful are generally always a good thing.

  • The occasional good decision

    Perhaps the greatest lesson from Warren Buffet’s most recent letter to Berkshire shareholders is that, to be wildly successful, you only have to be right sometimes:

    In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck.

    Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire.

    The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.

    So-so decisions. Periodic moments of brilliance. And a long-term patient outlook. These are, I think, important things to keep in mind. It’s okay to make mistakes; you just have to keep going.

  • Warren Buffet doesn’t like crypto and streetcars

    I have a great deal of respect for Warren Buffet. Much of what I know (or think I know) about investing has come from listening to and watching him and his partner Charlie Munger. Surely they have got to be the most successful investors living today.

    But there are some things that I don’t always agree with them on. The first and most obvious one is crypto. Warren thinks it is speculative rat poison and I think it is the future of the internet. I understand where he is coming from in that it does not produce cash in the same way as say a farm or an apartment building. But that doesn’t mean it won’t have value.

    The second one, as I have learned today, is maybe streetcars. As a rule, Warren doesn’t typically engage in local politics. But he recently decided to break that rule through a letter he wrote to the editor of the Omaha World-Herald, lobbying against a new $306 million project that I believe is going ahead regardless.

    Here’s an excerpt from the letter:

    “Residents can be far better served by extended or more intensive service by the bus system,” Buffett wrote. “As population, commerce and desired destinations shift, a bus system can be re-engineered. Streetcars keep mindlessly rolling on, fuelled by large public subsidies. Mistakes are literally cast in cement.”

    I should, however, be clear that (1) I know nothing about Omaha and this streetcar project, and (2) “streetcars” can be nuanced. There are streetcars that compete with car traffic and have short station spacing, and there is light rail transit on its own dedicated tracks and with farther station spacing. One size does not fit all.

    Here in Toronto, we have lots of the former and they generally move you around at the slowest possible speeds. Sometimes it is faster to just walk. But we are also getting a new light rail line next year and that should move much faster. I can also tell you that when I worked in Dublin many years ago, I took their Luas to the office every day and loved it.

    Again, I don’t know the specifics of Omaha’s streetcar project. Maybe Warren is right or maybe he is wrong. And that’s why I was careful to say “maybe” above. But I do know that in the right urban contexts and when done well, I am a fan of light rail transit.

  • Weekend link roundup — Ukraine and gas supply to Warren Buffet and Canadian housing supply

    I spent much of this morning reading about and listening to discussions about what’s happening in Ukraine and so, instead of a typical post this morning, I’m just going to share a mélange of links.

    • Monocle 24 Foreign Desk episode talking about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Speakers are Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko, former NATO chief Richard Shirreff, Russian journalist Ekaterina Kotrikadze, and Russia expert Mark Galeotti. I found this helpful in better understanding some of the dynamics at play here and what might happen going forward — though, of course, who knows. All of this is both deeply sad and frustrating. [Link]
    • Discussion in Bloomberg Green about the feasibility of the EU shutting off Russian gas right now, as opposed to through a protracted transition. Currently, the EU satisfies about 20% of its total energy needs through gas and about 40% of it comes from Russia. [Link] Also, a chart showing Russian natural gas exports, by destination. [Link]
    • Warren Buffet published his widely read annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this weekend. He likes to deliver news like this on a Saturday so that people have time to digest it before the markets reopen on Monday. The overall message was one that we have heard before: BH has a lot of cash (~$144 billion to be exact) and they’re not finding very many compelling opportunities in which to deploy it. [Link]
    • To add to the above, here is a longish Q&A session with Buffet’s partner, Charlie Munger. He continues to be worried about excess money in the system and high inflation. [Link]
    • Construction has been recently completed on a Mies van der Rohe design from 1952 that had been forgotten and buried in some archives. Originally commissioned to be a fraternity house at Indiana University, the building is now the Eskenazi School of Art, Architecture + Design. This is a supremely cool story, particularly for an architecture school. [Link]
    • Yet another simple example by Bobby Fijan on how highly restrictive zoning codes and design guidelines don’t always produce the end results that we might want. Different times and different contexts in this example. But it’s interesting to think about how best to promote design excellence in our cites. Is more creative market freedom the answer? [Link]
    • My friend Randy Gladman, who is senior vice-president of development advisory at Colliers here in Toronto, published an opinion piece in the Financial Post last week about the hidden costs of inclusionary zoning. It is consistent with the ad nauseam discussions that we have been having on this blog for the past few years, but it of course remains an important read. [Link]
    • Steve Pomeroy of Focus Consulting makes an argument in the Globe and Mail that elevated home prices in Canada isn’t primarily the result of a supply deficit. Using recent census data that allegedly shows that housing supply in Vancouver actually kept pace with demand (over how long of a period?), Pomeroy instead points to the other typical culprits: strong demand, low interest rates, unused homes owned by non-residents, and so on. This one likely deserves a dedicated post at some point. [Link]

    Ironically, the post turned out to be wordier than my usual ones.

  • What are you serving at your restaurant?

    Warren Buffet’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders was just published for 2020. It can be downloaded here. I have made a habit out of reading his letter every year and his overall approach has been instrumental in shaping the way I think about investing.

    What is clear to me when I look at the first page of each letter — which contains a comparison of Berkshire’s performance to that of the S&P 500 — is that he and Charlie Munger have got to be the most successful stock market investors of the last century.

    They have consistently outperformed the market. And they have done that by focusing on fundamentals, doing what others are not (i.e. being contrarians), and being incredibly patient, among other things. All of this isn’t rocket science. It’s simple, understandable, and repeatable.

    The other thing we can learn from his widely read letters is that clear and concise writing is a powerful tool. I have said this many times before, but to explain something clearly it means you need to really understand it. Things tend to get complicated when you don’t know what you’re taking about.

    And with that, here’s an excerpt from this year’s annual letter:

    In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises.

    At Berkshire, we have been serving hamburgers and Coke for 56 years. We cherish the clientele this fare has attracted.

    The tens of millions of other investors and speculators in the United States and elsewhere have a wide variety of equity choices to fit their tastes. They will find CEOs and market gurus with enticing ideas. If they want price targets, managed earnings and “stories,” they will not lack suitors. “Technicians” will confidently instruct them as to what some wiggles on a chart portend for a stock’s next move. The calls for action will never stop.

    Many of those investors, I should add, will do quite well. After all, ownership of stocks is very much a “positive-sum” game. Indeed, a patient and level-headed monkey, who constructs a portfolio by throwing 50 darts at a board listing all of the S&P 500, will – over time – enjoy dividends and capital gains, just as long as it never gets tempted to make changes in its original “selections.”

    Productive assets such as farms, real estate and, yes, business ownership produce wealth – lots of it. Most owners of such properties will be rewarded. All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimization of transactions and fees. Still, investors must never forget that their expenses are Wall Street’s income. And, unlike my monkey, Wall Streeters do not work for peanuts.

    When seats open up at Berkshire – and we hope they are few – we want them to be occupied by newcomers who understand and desire what we offer. After decades of management, Charlie and I remain unable to promise results. We can and do, however, pledge to treat you as partners.

    And so, too, will our successors.

  • Amazon might be buying Zoox

    This week the FT reported that Amazon is in “advanced talks” to acquire the self-driving startup Zoox. This would be Amazon’s first acquisition in the space, though it did lead a $530M funding round in Aurora in early 2019.

    Zoox last raised two years ago and was valued at $3.2 billion. Rumor has it that its valuation will be less than that today. Some of its investors, according to FT, include Breyer Capital and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

    The move seems reasonable. Amazon wants to build out its (driverless) logistics capabilities. It’s also in keeping with what we have been seeing from big tech. Companies that can are using this environment to be acquisitive, invest in the future and, hopefully, gain market share. It’s probably also inevitable that the self-driving space will see some consolidation going forward.

    If you go back to this post from earlier this year, Zoox and Aurora weren’t near the top in terms of R&D spending on autonomy. And it has become increasingly clear that this a giant problem/opportunity requiring giant funding capabilities. It’s going to take time.

    I recently heard Chamath Palihapitiya refer to Jeff Bezos as the greatest investor of our time — even more so than Warren Buffet. Why? Because he is consistently, and sometimes exclusively, investing in the future. Is this one of those moments?

  • Toronto Regional Real Estate Board releases housing market statistics for April 2020

    The Wall Street Journal reported today that the median home price across the United States rose 8% year-over-year in March to $280,600. One explanation for this is that while, yes, demand did drop off, so too did supply and that has led to a shortage of available housing. The other possible explanation is that these March deals were papered earlier in the year (or late last year) when most of us were blissfully unaware of what was about to happen and so the real impact of this pandemic isn’t yet showing up in these numbers.

    Let’s drill down.

    The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board also released numbers today, but for the month of April. Not surprisingly, residential resales across the region are down by 67% compared to April 2019. The number of listings is also down by a similar amount (-64.1%). Overall though, pricing remained relatively flat (0.1% increase). And by overall I mean for all housing types and for all areas of the region. There are larger variances within specific areas and for certain types. See below.

    Drilling down even further, my friend and agent Christopher Bibby noted in his monthly newsletter over the weekend that transaction volumes in the central (resale) condominium market are down some 85-90%. So the market is effectively at a standstill. Those who do not need to sell or move are justifiably deciding not to right now. But just as Warren Buffet got on stage over the weekend — with some great flowy hair, I might add — and told us in Times New Roman never to bet against America, I am not about to bet against Toronto. This too shall pass.

  • Doing what you say

    I came across this interview with Warren Buffet over the weekend. It’s not new. But he does say some interesting things about how to negotiate. We all have to negotiate things in life. And we all have different approaches. Warren’s approach is both simple and consistent:

    “I say what I’ll do.”

    “And I don’t do anything else.”

    What I love about this approach is that it’s expedient. And I value speed over most other things. But for it to work, you need to be consistent at it. People need to know you’re for real. And you also need a counterpart that is motivated to make things happen. That’s not often the case.

    Fewer games. More action. That’s what I like about it.