Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Tag: financial times

  • Thinking long-term and telling the right story

    With the recent announcement that Jeff Bezos will be stepping down as CEO of Amazon later this year, there have been countless articles about the legacy that he will be leaving behind, as well as about the next act that is expected to follow. A big part of this legacy is centered around innovation.

    Do any of you remember Amazon’s Fire Phone? Perhaps not. It was a complete failure. But that doesn’t matter because most people only remember the successes — everything from Amazon Prime to AWS, the latter of which was heavily doubted at the time. Isn’t this a distraction from the core business of selling books?

    This recent FT article by Dave Lee also makes a good point about another one of Amazon’s innovations: thinking long-term and getting the market to buy in to that approach.

    But another Bezos innovation has been his relationship with Wall Street, a world he was intimately familiar with, having previously worked at investment firm DE Shaw.

    Starting with his first letter to shareholders in 1997, Bezos consistently warned investors that profits would forever be secondary to growth, in what would become a recurring theme throughout Amazon’s history as it expanded its distribution network from seven dedicated facilities in 1999, to more than 1,500 today.

    “Bezos has an unparalleled ability to peddle his vision to Wall Street,” says Stacy Mitchell, from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, who advocates breaking Amazon into smaller pieces.

    “He was given this incredibly long leash, selling books at a loss. Independent bookstores could have multiplied across the country with that business model. But of course, they weren’t allowed to lose money.”

    It reminds me of a blog post that Fred Wilson penned at the end of last year, where he argued that speculative frenzies tend to be off in their magnitude, but directionally correct.

    The point he was making was that who knows what the market cap of a company like Tesla should be. With its current market cap, it has been able to raise a lot of money without much dilution and that is going to accelerate our shift toward electric vehicles — a good thing and the right path forward.

    Of course, if you’re an independent bookstore owner, you may not look at Amazon’s approach as being all that innovative. In fact, you may have another word in mind.

    But if you look at the parcel room in any condo or apartment building (as I do all the time), it’s pretty clear to me that the majority of ecommerce transactions are happening on Amazon. A machine has been built that seemingly renders people what they want, how they want it.

  • European Alps are home to a third of the world’s ski resorts — but they’re mostly closed

    This winter was supposed to be the 12th edition of a ski and snowboard trip that I do every year with a group of friends from both Canada and the US. Last winter we were in Fernie, British Columbia and this winter we were planning to go to Europe. But for obvious reasons, the trip has been cancelled. It’s going to be a tough season for the ski industry.

    According to this recent FT article, the European Alps are home to more than a third of the world’s 2,084 ski resorts. Typically, these resorts bring in about €28 billion in revenues over the course of a season, which is similarly about a third of the global total and almost 7% of the value of the European Union’s overall tourism market.

    But many/most resorts are closed right now. France has shuttered all ski resorts until at least January 7, 2021. And Switzerland, while “cautiously open,” is apparently getting pressure from its neighbors to close down again as further quarantine restrictions are put in place.

    Interestingly enough, some resorts are already reporting higher than normal early bookings for the 2021-2022 season. This is according to the same FT article. Instead of several hundred early bookings, which would be typical, they’re reporting several thousand. And many of the bookings have moved upmarket compared to prior years.

    What this starts to indicate is that we are likely to see an explosion in travel and leisure spending as soon as people feel safe and as soon as these restrictions are lifted. Demand is getting pent-up right now and that can mean only one thing: the 12th annual ski and snowboard trip needs to be a banger.

    Charts: Financial Times

  • Economies of agglomeration in London

    The Financial Times is running a series right now on the future of the City of London. In their latest article, they looked at “How London grew into a financial powerhouse,” while at the same time comparing it to other global financial centers. It’s interesting to see how much of a banner year this was for companies going public. Companies listing on the Nasdaq and the NYSE raised a record $150 billion in 2020. This is compared to about $6 billion raised in London (both the London Stock Exchange and AIM). But what I really want to draw your attention to are the below maps from FT showing the clustering of banks, hedge funds, asset managers, insurers, and professional services firms in London. This is what urban agglomeration economies look like.

  • The minimum parking problem for on-demand mobility

    There is data to suggest that on-demand (OD) mobility services — such as Uber — are increasing vehicle kilometers traveled (i.e. causing greater traffic congestion) by inducing people away from public transit and other forms of urban mobility. This is potentially even more of an issue right now with most urban transit agencies looking at massive budget shortfalls.

    But there’s potentially another way to look at this problem. A recent study led by Dániel Kondor of the MIT Senseable City Lab has looked at not only vehicle kilometers traveled but also something that the team calls the “minimum parking problem.” What is the minimum amount of parking that you need assuming a world with more on-demand mobility, and eventually autonomous vehicles?

    To try and answer this problem the researchers looked at the small city-state of Singapore. With a population of about 5.6 million people and somewhere around 1 million vehicles, Singapore actually has one of the lowest number of private vehicles per capita in the developed world. Even still, it has some 1.37 million parking spaces taking up valuable room.

    What the team found was that on-demand mobility could reduce parking infrastructure needs in Singapore by as much as 86%. This is the absolute minimum number, which would take the current estimate of 1.37 million spots down to about 189,000 — a significant reduction.

    However, the tradeoff is that it could increase vehicle kilometers traveled by about 24%. Without ample parking, their model assumes that these on-demand vehicles would need to “deadhead” between trips. That is, drive around aimlessly while they wait for their next passenger. Demand isn’t usually neat and tidy.

    However, it’s worth noting that the above percentage increase assumes that if people were instead driving themselves around that they always found a parking spot as soon as they arrived at their destination. This, as we all know, is not often the case, and so this increase is probably a worst case scenario.

    Nevertheless, the team did also find that a 57% reduction in parking could be achieved with only a modest 1.3% increase in vehicle kilometers traveled. This, to me, is meaningful because it says that you could, in theory, cut parking supply in at least half and not much would happen in the way of traffic congestion.

    It would, however, free up a bunch of space for things like bicycle lanes, green space, and other valuable urban amenities. Now, if on-demand vehicles are pulling people away from transit, then maybe we’re no better off. But if the alternative is people driving and parking everywhere they go, then it would seem that there are much better uses for that space.

    Photo by Jordi Moncasi on Unsplash

  • La ville du quart d’heure, but also the value of centralization

    These days, everybody seems to be talking about the 15-minute city — Bloomberg, Treehugger, the Financial Times, as well as countless others. While not a new concept, it is a moniker that is easier for most people to digest. COVID-19 has also created the right backdrop for the moment that it is currently enjoying.

    The 15-minute city is a polycentric and somewhat decentralized approach to urbanism. It is about encouraging and creating multiple centers of urban activity near where people live. The idea being that everybody should have most of their essential services within a 15-minute walk of their home. Put even more simply, it’s about creating an urban environment where people can live locally.

    The benefits to this are numerous. It encourages more compact forms of development, which in turn encourages people to rely more heavily on active modes of transportation such as walking and cycling. The result is less commuting, less carbon emissions, more time, and likely better health outcomes given the reliance on active mobility.

    Indeed, living in a walkable urban community is something that I personally put a huge value on. If I can’t walk out of my home to go grab a coffee and something to eat, it’s probably not the neighborhood for me. But at the same time, I don’t think we can ignore the fact that there are powerful centralizing forces present within our cities.

    As Natalie Whittle points out in this FT article from the summer, new technologies — from the telegraph to the internet — have always elicited predictions that humans would now flee cities and move to the countryside. While it is true that there are other technologies — everything from the streetcar to the automobile — that have allowed us to decentralize to a greater extent, most of us are all still bound to cities.

    In fact, you could argue that the opposite of decentralization has played out. As we have transitioned to a knowledge and information economy, the returns to being embedded within cities and within a particular place have only become greater.

    Take for example the phenomenon of “collab houses” that has been playing out in Los Angeles for some time now, including during this pandemic. Collab houses are typically LA mansions where clusters of young people come and live together in order to create content for platforms like YouTube and TikTok. It’s like a big dorm for creators. And supposedly the biggest one is Hype House.

    What’s fascinating to me about this phenomenon is that it reinforces two things. One, if you want to be rich and famous (emphasis on famous), Los Angeles is seemingly still an important place to be. And two, if you really want to be at the top of your game, it’s apparently not enough to be in the same city as other likeminded individuals; you also need to be under the same roof, bouncing ideas around and pushing one another.

    So what does this all mean? Well, maybe this time is different and we are all currently living through a reorganization of how we will live, work and play. Or, maybe this time isn’t all that different. And the 15-minute city, while an important goal, won’t be the be-all and end-all of modern city building.

    Photo by Lukas Geck on Unsplash

  • How local is local, really?

    Real estate, as they say, is a local business. Every market has its local nuances. For example, once of the first things that Studio Gang asked us when we started working together was, “does Toronto do PT?” What they were referring to was post-tensioned concrete and our answer was, “not really.” There are certainly examples of localized applications within buildings (such as for a specific transfer slab) and there are examples of buildings that have used it throughout (see Pier 27 Tower below — it’s how they managed to get such deep balconies). But for the most part, it’s not widely used and it’s certainly not as common as it is in markets such as New York. This subtle difference has an impact on how you design, which is why Studio Gang asked it from the outset.

    Despite some of these local differences, there is a criticism out there that we have descended upon a kind of bland global design sensibility. No matter where you’re building, every building now looks the same, which, at the end of the day, was kind of the point of the International Style of architecture. One design approach applied universally. This recent article by Edwin Heathcote takes things even further by saying that our interiors have also been sterilized to look more or less the same as a result of “digital aesthetic seepage.” The article is called, “The curse of the Airbnb aesthetic.”

    One the one hand, there is something inevitable about this outcome. We — including our supply chains — have become more interconnected than ever. And because of the high cost of labor, the way we build today is centered around as much factory automation as possible. Minimize what needs to be done on site. And given that I would expect more, rather than less, automation going forward, one has to assume that this trend is destined to continue. At the same time, local places matter and one of the reasons why so many of us love to travel is that we want to see places that are different than our own. I for one don’t want that to change.

  • Daydreaming about traveling again

    One of my favorite pastimes these days is planning out all of the places I am going to travel to once it is safe to do so and the world fully reopens. Traveling was something that I prioritized before COVID-19 and it is something that I know I will get back to sooner rather than later. But in the short-term, the travel and tourism industry is of course feeling it. According to this recent article from FT, there were 67 million fewer tourists around the world in March 2020 compared to last year. And in April, passenger demand was down even further with a 94% year-over-year decline. This is something, because globally, tourism is believed to account for about 10% of the world’s economic output. Over the last five years, 1 out of every 4 new jobs around the world was in the travel and tourism space. And for some countries, such as Cambodia, tourism accounts for over 30% of overall GDP.

    What has also happened over the last decade is that South and East Asia & Pacific has begun collecting a greater share of global tourism dollars, which is or was at about US$1.6 trillion in total. East Asia is now comparable to Europe & Central Asia — it may even be receiving a few more dollars at this point. However, there are some key differences. Tourism in Europe, more so than other region, relies on international travel. And since domestic travel is likely to recover before international travel, Europe is perhaps the most exposed in this regard. Europe also has a pretty pronounced peak. There is something magical about the Mediterranean in July and August and that is indeed when most people visit Europe (see above FT charts). Broadly speaking, the rest of the world doesn’t seem to experience this same overt seasonality. (If you think back to the start of COVID-19, you might remember that Asia’s travel “peak” usually happens in December.)

    Will international travellers feel confident enough by July and August? And if they don’t and Europe misses summer 2020, will travel plans get pushed to later in the year or will Europe need to wait for summer 2021? For me it’s feeling like a summer of road trips and local vacations. But that doesn’t mean I’m not thinking about and planning for much more. My suitcase and passport are ready. What about you?

    Charts: Financial Times

  • Amazon might be buying Zoox

    This week the FT reported that Amazon is in “advanced talks” to acquire the self-driving startup Zoox. This would be Amazon’s first acquisition in the space, though it did lead a $530M funding round in Aurora in early 2019.

    Zoox last raised two years ago and was valued at $3.2 billion. Rumor has it that its valuation will be less than that today. Some of its investors, according to FT, include Breyer Capital and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board.

    The move seems reasonable. Amazon wants to build out its (driverless) logistics capabilities. It’s also in keeping with what we have been seeing from big tech. Companies that can are using this environment to be acquisitive, invest in the future and, hopefully, gain market share. It’s probably also inevitable that the self-driving space will see some consolidation going forward.

    If you go back to this post from earlier this year, Zoox and Aurora weren’t near the top in terms of R&D spending on autonomy. And it has become increasingly clear that this a giant problem/opportunity requiring giant funding capabilities. It’s going to take time.

    I recently heard Chamath Palihapitiya refer to Jeff Bezos as the greatest investor of our time — even more so than Warren Buffet. Why? Because he is consistently, and sometimes exclusively, investing in the future. Is this one of those moments?

  • Jostling for space on the grass

    The talk this weekend in Toronto is about how everyone is jamming into downtown parks — like Trinity Bellwoods — to enjoy the beautiful weather and drink outside with friends.

    Some, including our mayor, are “extremely disappointed” by this selfish behavior. Others are chalking it up to those hipsters. And others, such as Richard Florida, are being highly sympathetic: these are young people who live in small urban spaces and they are clamoring for some green space. Let them be human.

    This, of course, is a debate that is playing out not just here in Toronto, but all around the world as we flirt our way into a reopening. Videos of the Lake of the Ozarks were making the rounds on Twitter when I last checked.

    I’m not here to pass judgement or predict a second wave (though a few waves are probably inevitable). I’ll leave that to the epidemiologists. The silver lining to all of this, I think, is that it is a clear demonstration of just how persistent urban life remains in the midst of this pandemic. The desire to be around other humans is a powerful force of attraction.

    Here is an excerpt from a recent FT Opinion by Ben Rogers called, Cities are not dead — they will get younger:

    Cities have always worked particularly well for young people. They flock to them to build up vital social and professional networks, meet their mates and learn how the world works. Around the world there is massive unmet demand for city homes and workspace. The idea that the centres of London, Paris and New York will turn into tumbleweed towns is fanciful. The age composition of these cities might change, but people and business will still be jostling for space near the centre.

    In Toronto this weekend, that jostling for space played out on the grass of Trinity Bellwoods Park.

    Photo by Adrien Olichon on Unsplash

  • The global gym market and gyms per capita

    Many of us are now working out from home. The Financial Times just reported that Peloton experienced its highest level of participation last week. Some 23,000 people tuned in for one of its streamed classes. Naturally, anything that was possible to go online has gone online.

    I’ve never really been a class guy, but I’ve been a regular at a gym since high school and it’s one of the things I’m most looking forward to getting back to as things subside. For many, the gym is a kind of third place. Though I would imagine it’s not the best place to hangout during a pandemic.

    According to FT, the fitness industry was among the first to suffer in the UK (~£5.1bn industry), showing signs of decline even before any government lockdown. The UK also had one of the most profitable fitness industries in Europe. Here’s an interesting chart comparing gym penetration to revenue per club.

    It’s interesting to note some of the outliers. Latin America has low penetration and low average revenue per club. And parts of Asia — notably Hong Kong and China — have relatively high average revenue per club, but still have fairly low penetration percentages. Do only rich people go to the gym in Hong Kong?

    This chart maybe makes it seem like nobody in Latin America is working out. But if you, instead, look at the number of fitness clubs in each country, the data looks vastly different. In this case, there are two very clear outliers: the United States and Brazil. (The below chart is from Statista and is based on 2017 data.)

    But Brazil also happens to be the most populous country in Latin America with around 209 million people. So let’s consider this chart on a per capita basis against, oh I don’t know, the US (~328 million), the UK (~67 million), and Canada (~38 million). Once again, the ranking switches. Brazil and Canada now come out on top with around 16 fitness clubs per 100,000 people. (I guess we’re just as body conscious as the Brazilians.) This is in comparison to 12 per for the US and 10 per for the UK.

    So what does this all mean for our post-COVID-19 world? Who knows. But I’ll sure as hell be at the gym.