Aaron Terrazas, who is a Senior Economist at Zillow, recently gave this presentation about the US and Virginia Beach housing markets. (I discovered it through City Observatory.)
There are a bunch of interesting graphs/stats in the presentation. Home values in Virginia Beach, for example, have yet to fully recover from the 2007-2008 financial crisis. They are still 8% below their pre-crisis peak, which was in July 2007. (I presume the presentation is dealing in nominal dollars.)
I’ll give two more examples.
Below is a chart comparing average home prices for rural (dark blue/purple), suburban (blue), and urban (green) homes. In the late 90′s, suburban and urban homes were roughly equal in terms of average prices. But since then, urban homes have shown greater appreciation. The spread also appears to be widening.
However, there are limitations. It is capped at loans up to $500,000 or up to $1M if you’re married and you file jointly. On the other end of the spectrum, you also need a loan big enough such that an itemized deduction will save you more money than the standard deduction.
Not surprisingly, the MID is popular among homeowners. And from a public policy standpoint, one of its selling features is that it’s supposed to stimulate homeownership. But many have argued that it doesn’t actually do this – it unequally benefits people with larger mortgages. (Canada has
Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz recently interviewed Richard Barton about his startup companies. Barton founded Expedia while he was an executive at Microsoft (Gates and Ballmer era) and then went on to cofound Zillow (real estate site) and Glassdoor (jobs site).
I’ve been following the work of Barton for many years now because I admire the common thread among his startups: They’re about bringing transparency to industries where transparency is lacking. I used to try and dissect his thinking when I was working on my own real estate/tech startup.
I believe there’s still a lot of room for transparency in the real estate space, but that doesn’t negate the work that Barton has done. He’s all about using technology to bring “power to the people.” That’s a good thing.
Aaron Terrazas, who is a Senior Economist at Zillow, recently gave this presentation about the US and Virginia Beach housing markets. (I discovered it through City Observatory.)
There are a bunch of interesting graphs/stats in the presentation. Home values in Virginia Beach, for example, have yet to fully recover from the 2007-2008 financial crisis. They are still 8% below their pre-crisis peak, which was in July 2007. (I presume the presentation is dealing in nominal dollars.)
I’ll give two more examples.
Below is a chart comparing average home prices for rural (dark blue/purple), suburban (blue), and urban (green) homes. In the late 90′s, suburban and urban homes were roughly equal in terms of average prices. But since then, urban homes have shown greater appreciation. The spread also appears to be widening.
However, there are limitations. It is capped at loans up to $500,000 or up to $1M if you’re married and you file jointly. On the other end of the spectrum, you also need a loan big enough such that an itemized deduction will save you more money than the standard deduction.
Not surprisingly, the MID is popular among homeowners. And from a public policy standpoint, one of its selling features is that it’s supposed to stimulate homeownership. But many have argued that it doesn’t actually do this – it unequally benefits people with larger mortgages. (Canada has
Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz recently interviewed Richard Barton about his startup companies. Barton founded Expedia while he was an executive at Microsoft (Gates and Ballmer era) and then went on to cofound Zillow (real estate site) and Glassdoor (jobs site).
I’ve been following the work of Barton for many years now because I admire the common thread among his startups: They’re about bringing transparency to industries where transparency is lacking. I used to try and dissect his thinking when I was working on my own real estate/tech startup.
I believe there’s still a lot of room for transparency in the real estate space, but that doesn’t negate the work that Barton has done. He’s all about using technology to bring “power to the people.” That’s a good thing.
And here is a graph showing the share of mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. That is, the value of the home is less than the outstanding balance of the mortgage.
Now this is only covers people who have a mortgage. According to this Washington Post article, about 34% of all US homeowners don’t have one. Either they have paid it off or they never had one.
Still, the above numbers stood out to me. They speak to the severity of the financial crisis. At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, over 30% of borrowers were in a negativity equity position. And in Virginia Beach it was more than 1/3 of all borrowers at the peak.
Right now it looks like you need to buying a home worth at least $305,000 in order for the mortgage interest deduction to make economic sense for you. Again, if your loan isn’t big enough, you’re simply going to opt for the standard deduction.
In 2015, about 22% of all US taxpayers opted to take advantage of the MID. According to Zillow, only about 29% of all homes in the US are valuable enough for the MID to actually make sense. Though in some cities, like San Francisco, it’s pretty much all of the homes. Of course.
One of proposed changes is a doubling of the standard deduction. What this means, based on Zillow’s math, is that you would need to be buying a home worth at least $801,000 today for the MID to make sense. This also means that the deduction would now only benefit about 5% of all homes in the US.
This would seem to only exacerbate the criticism that the MID does not in fact stimulate homeownership in the segment of the market that needs it the most. But perhaps this is the only politically palatable way of removing it – gradually.
And here is a graph showing the share of mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. That is, the value of the home is less than the outstanding balance of the mortgage.
Now this is only covers people who have a mortgage. According to this Washington Post article, about 34% of all US homeowners don’t have one. Either they have paid it off or they never had one.
Still, the above numbers stood out to me. They speak to the severity of the financial crisis. At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, over 30% of borrowers were in a negativity equity position. And in Virginia Beach it was more than 1/3 of all borrowers at the peak.
Right now it looks like you need to buying a home worth at least $305,000 in order for the mortgage interest deduction to make economic sense for you. Again, if your loan isn’t big enough, you’re simply going to opt for the standard deduction.
In 2015, about 22% of all US taxpayers opted to take advantage of the MID. According to Zillow, only about 29% of all homes in the US are valuable enough for the MID to actually make sense. Though in some cities, like San Francisco, it’s pretty much all of the homes. Of course.
One of proposed changes is a doubling of the standard deduction. What this means, based on Zillow’s math, is that you would need to be buying a home worth at least $801,000 today for the MID to make sense. This also means that the deduction would now only benefit about 5% of all homes in the US.
This would seem to only exacerbate the criticism that the MID does not in fact stimulate homeownership in the segment of the market that needs it the most. But perhaps this is the only politically palatable way of removing it – gradually.
