Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
A lack of affordable housing certainly feels like a global phenomenon. Companies are trying to 3D-print homes for under $100k. Berlin froze apartment rents back in 2019 because things were getting too expensive. And today, Hong Kong is working on building some sort of "light public housing" in an effort to reduce its massive wait times for new homes.
But depending on where you are in the world, it might be somewhat comforting to remember that this problem seems to be particularly pronounced, here, in English-speaking countries. Whether it's restrictive zoning rules or a general distaste for apartments and urban density, the English-speaking world has fallen behind on housing supply compared to places like continental Europe.
Here's an excerpt from a recent FT article:
Forty years ago, the UK, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland had roughly 400 homes per 1,000 residents, level with developed continental European countries. Since then the two groups have diverged, the Anglosphere standing still while western Europe has pulled clear to 560 per 1,000.
And this shows in our home prices:
One argument is that continental Europe is simply more culturally accepting of apartment buildings, and that allows more new homes to be built. Seems right:
According to this chart, the average person from the UK or the US would not be happy unless they were living in a detached house. When you get to the continent, people start to become increasingly more positive around missing middle-type housing (something in the 3-4 storey range). Though, anything more than that and things get divided.
All in all, it doesn't seem to really matter where you're from, there's a clear preference for detached housing. But maybe liking apartments even a little bit is all you need to help with overall housing supply.
Prior to COVID, many projections had the world's population plateauing sometime in the second half of the 21st century. This is expected to happen because about half of the world's population now lives in a country where the fertility rate is less than the replacement rate of 2.1 children for every woman. See above chart from
UBS and PwC's recent report on billionaire wealth highlights some interesting trends about the global economy and global wealth.
Billionaire wealth in mainland China is now second to only the United States, having grown by about 1146% from 2009 to 2020, compared to 170% in the US. As of the middle of this year, it was sitting at about USD 1.7 trillion in China, compared to USD 3.6 trillion in the US.
A lack of affordable housing certainly feels like a global phenomenon. Companies are trying to 3D-print homes for under $100k. Berlin froze apartment rents back in 2019 because things were getting too expensive. And today, Hong Kong is working on building some sort of "light public housing" in an effort to reduce its massive wait times for new homes.
But depending on where you are in the world, it might be somewhat comforting to remember that this problem seems to be particularly pronounced, here, in English-speaking countries. Whether it's restrictive zoning rules or a general distaste for apartments and urban density, the English-speaking world has fallen behind on housing supply compared to places like continental Europe.
Here's an excerpt from a recent FT article:
Forty years ago, the UK, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland had roughly 400 homes per 1,000 residents, level with developed continental European countries. Since then the two groups have diverged, the Anglosphere standing still while western Europe has pulled clear to 560 per 1,000.
And this shows in our home prices:
One argument is that continental Europe is simply more culturally accepting of apartment buildings, and that allows more new homes to be built. Seems right:
According to this chart, the average person from the UK or the US would not be happy unless they were living in a detached house. When you get to the continent, people start to become increasingly more positive around missing middle-type housing (something in the 3-4 storey range). Though, anything more than that and things get divided.
All in all, it doesn't seem to really matter where you're from, there's a clear preference for detached housing. But maybe liking apartments even a little bit is all you need to help with overall housing supply.
Prior to COVID, many projections had the world's population plateauing sometime in the second half of the 21st century. This is expected to happen because about half of the world's population now lives in a country where the fertility rate is less than the replacement rate of 2.1 children for every woman. See above chart from
UBS and PwC's recent report on billionaire wealth highlights some interesting trends about the global economy and global wealth.
Billionaire wealth in mainland China is now second to only the United States, having grown by about 1146% from 2009 to 2020, compared to 170% in the US. As of the middle of this year, it was sitting at about USD 1.7 trillion in China, compared to USD 3.6 trillion in the US.
At the start of the pandemic, there was talk of a possible COVID baby boom. People were/are stuck at home and so that would surely translate into more sex among partners. But that doesn't appear to have been the case for many countries. According to The Economist, births fell by 15% in China last year. The same drop was recorded in the United States last year between February and November.
Because of this trend, the above projections are now being adjusted and pulled forward, with some predicting that the world's population could plateau as early as the 2050s. That's only about 30 years from now, which means that quite a few of us could end up living in a world with a declining population. This is likely to have both positive and negative consequences.
There are nearly 8 billion people in the world today with China and India being the countries with the greatest numbers. But it's interesting to consider how recent this figure really is (compounding takes time to gain momentum).
The world didn't hit a billion people until the 19th century, and the second billion was only reached by the 1920s, which in the grand scheme of things, isn't that long ago. Since then the global population has exploded with about 6 billion people being added in only the last 100 years. That's pretty wild when you think about it.
P.S. I recently discovered a site called outline.com. It allows you to read, highlight, and annotate articles that you find online. But it also seems to allow you to read articles behind paywalls. Perhaps some of you will find that useful.
Chart: The Economist
About half of all billionaires seem to have a significant amount of their wealth invested in real estate. Somewhere between 21-40% of their net worth.
At the same time, the report identifies the real estate industry as having the fewest number of "innovators & disruptors." Only 17% of billionaires (whose wealth is primarily derived from real estate) are classified in this way. The report calls out the sector as being "especially slow to embrace technology to boost efficiency."
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway is that, even within the rarified billionaire community, tech is driving polarization. For most of the last decade, the sector didn't matter all that much. The rich were getting richer. Now it's more so the tech rich. And COVID-19 seems to be accelerating this trend.
This is not to say that I think people are particularly worried about billionaires who maybe aren't getting as rich as they used to. That's like complaining about being too good looking. But it is clear that tech is driving a bunch of macro shifts in the global economy and this is just another example of that playing out.
Image: UBS and PwC
At the start of the pandemic, there was talk of a possible COVID baby boom. People were/are stuck at home and so that would surely translate into more sex among partners. But that doesn't appear to have been the case for many countries. According to The Economist, births fell by 15% in China last year. The same drop was recorded in the United States last year between February and November.
Because of this trend, the above projections are now being adjusted and pulled forward, with some predicting that the world's population could plateau as early as the 2050s. That's only about 30 years from now, which means that quite a few of us could end up living in a world with a declining population. This is likely to have both positive and negative consequences.
There are nearly 8 billion people in the world today with China and India being the countries with the greatest numbers. But it's interesting to consider how recent this figure really is (compounding takes time to gain momentum).
The world didn't hit a billion people until the 19th century, and the second billion was only reached by the 1920s, which in the grand scheme of things, isn't that long ago. Since then the global population has exploded with about 6 billion people being added in only the last 100 years. That's pretty wild when you think about it.
P.S. I recently discovered a site called outline.com. It allows you to read, highlight, and annotate articles that you find online. But it also seems to allow you to read articles behind paywalls. Perhaps some of you will find that useful.
Chart: The Economist
About half of all billionaires seem to have a significant amount of their wealth invested in real estate. Somewhere between 21-40% of their net worth.
At the same time, the report identifies the real estate industry as having the fewest number of "innovators & disruptors." Only 17% of billionaires (whose wealth is primarily derived from real estate) are classified in this way. The report calls out the sector as being "especially slow to embrace technology to boost efficiency."
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway is that, even within the rarified billionaire community, tech is driving polarization. For most of the last decade, the sector didn't matter all that much. The rich were getting richer. Now it's more so the tech rich. And COVID-19 seems to be accelerating this trend.
This is not to say that I think people are particularly worried about billionaires who maybe aren't getting as rich as they used to. That's like complaining about being too good looking. But it is clear that tech is driving a bunch of macro shifts in the global economy and this is just another example of that playing out.
Image: UBS and PwC
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
