If you've been following the Toronto housing market and/or following any panicky resale agents/brokers on Twitter, you'll know that things have shifted over the last few months. Here's what broker (and my friend) Christopher Bibby had to say about the market in his most recent newsletter:
As anticipated, April has ended up being one of the defining months of the 2022 real estate market. With the recent fragility we are seeing, it is clear that the market peaked in February. In fact, the Toronto Real Estate Board, in its most recent Market Watch, claims that month-over-month prices could be down by 2.6%—which is very likely. TREB also indicated that the overall number of year-over-year transactions in March was down by approximately 30%. I deferred the release of this newsletter because weekend activity positively altered some of my previous commentary. The key takeaway, however, is that sentiment has shifted in our marketplace.
But let me paraphrase the conclusion of Bibby's newsletter with two words: who cares? If you think that Toronto (or some other city) will remain an important global city by 2025, 2030, or even 2040, you really shouldn't be fussed by what the market is doing over the span of a few months.
Moreover, I can tell you that my least favorite time to go out and buy real estate is when everyone else is submitting silly offers and clamoring to buy whatever they can find.
If you've been following the Toronto housing market and/or following any panicky resale agents/brokers on Twitter, you'll know that things have shifted over the last few months. Here's what broker (and my friend) Christopher Bibby had to say about the market in his most recent newsletter:
As anticipated, April has ended up being one of the defining months of the 2022 real estate market. With the recent fragility we are seeing, it is clear that the market peaked in February. In fact, the Toronto Real Estate Board, in its most recent Market Watch, claims that month-over-month prices could be down by 2.6%—which is very likely. TREB also indicated that the overall number of year-over-year transactions in March was down by approximately 30%. I deferred the release of this newsletter because weekend activity positively altered some of my previous commentary. The key takeaway, however, is that sentiment has shifted in our marketplace.
But let me paraphrase the conclusion of Bibby's newsletter with two words: who cares? If you think that Toronto (or some other city) will remain an important global city by 2025, 2030, or even 2040, you really shouldn't be fussed by what the market is doing over the span of a few months.
Moreover, I can tell you that my least favorite time to go out and buy real estate is when everyone else is submitting silly offers and clamoring to buy whatever they can find.
Last Thursday the Supreme Court of Canada announced it would not hear an appeal from the Toronto Real Estate Board regarding a 2016 Competition Bureau decision aimed at giving consumers greater online access to information, such as historical (home) sale prices.
I am not at all surprised by the Supreme Court’s decision and I have said pretty much all I want to say on this topic – over here. But since I believe this is a positive outcome for real estate consumers, I wanted to mention it on the blog because it appears to be a final decision.
Some sites, such as Zoocasa, have already started publishing sold prices. Good.
The Toronto Real Estate Board (Canada’s largest real estate board) and the Competition Bureau have been fighting for years over whether TREB’s housing market sales data, including realtor commissions, should be publicly available online.
The Competition Bureau, as well as many forward thinking realtors, believe that gatekeeping historical sales data is stifling competition and innovation. It is. But TREB has been arguing – for a number of years I might add – that it is genuinely concerned about consumer privacy.
Last Thursday the Supreme Court of Canada announced it would not hear an appeal from the Toronto Real Estate Board regarding a 2016 Competition Bureau decision aimed at giving consumers greater online access to information, such as historical (home) sale prices.
I am not at all surprised by the Supreme Court’s decision and I have said pretty much all I want to say on this topic – over here. But since I believe this is a positive outcome for real estate consumers, I wanted to mention it on the blog because it appears to be a final decision.
Some sites, such as Zoocasa, have already started publishing sold prices. Good.
The Toronto Real Estate Board (Canada’s largest real estate board) and the Competition Bureau have been fighting for years over whether TREB’s housing market sales data, including realtor commissions, should be publicly available online.
The Competition Bureau, as well as many forward thinking realtors, believe that gatekeeping historical sales data is stifling competition and innovation. It is. But TREB has been arguing – for a number of years I might add – that it is genuinely concerned about consumer privacy.
Well on Friday the
Federal Court of Appeal ruled
that TREB
cannot
prevent its members from freely publishing data about what properties have sold for. This is a positive, albeit a small, step forward for open data and innovation.
But perhaps not surprisingly, TREB has already said it would appeal the decision to the Supreme Court of Canada and apply for an order staying the release of the above data until this new appeal gets decided.
So there’s still more fighting to take place. Nevertheless, I do have a few thoughts.
The claim by TREB that they are deeply concerned about consumer privacy is nonsense. Call up any realtor in this city and they’ll tell you and send you whatever historical sales data you want. This is about maintaining an information asymmetry that forces more consumers to connect with agents.
But as many sensible realtors have already explained publicly in the media, if gatekeeping information is such a critical component of the value that TREB members bring to clients – and the board is certainly clinging to it – then realtors and/or the industry have a serious problem on their hands.
Time to evolve.
I would also argue that our current archaic setup distorts the market. There’s simply too much friction associated with accessing good sales records and so the result is greater opacity in the market. Say all you want about the efficacy of realtors, more friction = less engagement. Free the data and empower members to leverage and build on top of it.
In my view, this is a positive step forward. But it still feels like a small one. I’m actually surprised by how long this status-quo battle has been going on. Hopefully it gets wrapped up soon so everyone can get on with what matters most: innovating.
prevent its members from freely publishing data about what properties have sold for. This is a positive, albeit a small, step forward for open data and innovation.
But perhaps not surprisingly, TREB has already said it would appeal the decision to the Supreme Court of Canada and apply for an order staying the release of the above data until this new appeal gets decided.
So there’s still more fighting to take place. Nevertheless, I do have a few thoughts.
The claim by TREB that they are deeply concerned about consumer privacy is nonsense. Call up any realtor in this city and they’ll tell you and send you whatever historical sales data you want. This is about maintaining an information asymmetry that forces more consumers to connect with agents.
But as many sensible realtors have already explained publicly in the media, if gatekeeping information is such a critical component of the value that TREB members bring to clients – and the board is certainly clinging to it – then realtors and/or the industry have a serious problem on their hands.
Time to evolve.
I would also argue that our current archaic setup distorts the market. There’s simply too much friction associated with accessing good sales records and so the result is greater opacity in the market. Say all you want about the efficacy of realtors, more friction = less engagement. Free the data and empower members to leverage and build on top of it.
In my view, this is a positive step forward. But it still feels like a small one. I’m actually surprised by how long this status-quo battle has been going on. Hopefully it gets wrapped up soon so everyone can get on with what matters most: innovating.
