Category: Tech

• How disruptive is AI really going to be?

  AI is going to be very disruptive, right? At this point, I think it is pretty clear to most that the answer is yes, almost regardless of what industry you’re in. But is it going to be really disruptive? Like disruptive in the Clayton Christensen sense of the word. (Christensen is known for coining the term “disruptive innovation“, which he contrasted against “sustaining innovation.”)

  This is a good question, and I like how Ben Thompson thought about it in his newsletter this morning:

  I tend to believe that disruptive innovations are actually quite rare, but when they come, they are basically impossible for the incumbent company to respond to: their business models, shareholders, and most important customers make it impossible for management to respond. If that is true, though, then an incumbent responding is in fact evidence that an innovation is actually not disruptive, but sustaining.

  The point he is making is that given that the big tech companies (and of course everyone else) are all now responding to AI by incorporating it into their businesses, it, by definition, must not be a disruptive innovation. It’s a sustaining one. This doesn’t mean that AI won’t have significant impacts on our economy; it just means that maybe it won’t put a company like Alphabet out of business.

  I thought this was an interesting way of looking at things because it is a reminder that “disruptive innovations” often start out at the bottom of the market. They start in a way that can feel innocuous to incumbents; that is, until they move upmarket. But this is not at all how AI feels. As soon as you play around with ChatGPT you immediately think to yourself, “holy shit, this thing can do my job.”

  That is obviously something very meaningful. But is it going to shake up the big tech world order? I don’t know, if you follow Christensen’s definition, crypto sounds like the more disruptive innovation.

  2023.05.15

• Measuring downtown recoveries using mobile phone data

  The School of Cities at the University of Toronto and the Institute for Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley have been using mobile phone data to track the recovery of 62 downtowns across North America. This work has been being published at downtownrecovery.com, but it has also been widely cited.

  First, to be clear on how this works, the data they are collecting is not dependent on people actually making calls or actively consuming data on their phone; instead it is simply based on people having a phone with them and being physically located in one these 62 downtowns. It also covers the period between January 2019 and November 2022, and includes cities with least 350,000 people.

  I’m not exactly sure how long the phones need to be in a particular place or how they treat time in their data, but the unit of measure is something that they call a “Point of Interest.” This includes things like restaurants and shops, so presumably this data isn’t just saying, ” I went downtown and sat in my office for 8 hours.” It could also be, “I went downtown and ate good pasta.”

  I say this because, based on my understanding of the data, having a high Recovery Quotient (RQ) could mean a number of different things. It could mean that more people are back in the office, but it could also mean that the downtown isn’t a monoculture and that it has other things going on besides just work.

  In any event, here’s what they have found:

  

  The headline finding is that San Francisco has the lowest RQ at 31% and Salt Lake City has the highest at 135%. There does appear to be a bias toward higher recoveries with mid-sized cities, and one of the reasons for this is that these recovery quotients appear to be correlated with average commute times:

  

  Some of the other strongly correlated explanations, include the percentage of jobs in professional, scientific, and technical fields:

  

  And the number of days that events were shut down during the pandemic (note the Canadian cities on the right below; welcome, New Orleans):

  

  I suppose one way to grossly oversimplify these findings is to say that some people have been avoiding going downtown if they can’t quickly drive there (and have to take transit), if their job more easily allows them to work from home, and if things were shut down for too long during the pandemic. Because if it was, they maybe forgot about all of the fun things that typically happen downtown.

  Image: The School of Cities

  2023.04.24

• New web3 restaurant loyalty platform launches in NYC

  

  I just learned about Blackbird’s technology platform and the restaurant loyalty program that they are currently building. On the surface, the way it works is that you walk into a restaurant and then tap your phone on one of their NFC-enabled chips (see above).

  This then signals that you are/were there and so you earn loyalty points, kind of like a stamp on one of those cards in the food court. Except here, the idea is to create an endless and customizable array of wonderful customer experiences.

  Maybe after 15 fifteen visits you’re now considered “fam” (decided by the restaurant), and so you get a designated table at the restaurant and your favorite dessert automatically sent to your home on your birthday. This is just one example.

  At the same time, you also earn $FLY, which is the platform’s native crypto token (built on Base by Coinbase). And this to me is one of the most exciting aspects of the platform.

  Because here is a crypto or web3 product that is seemingly really easy to use. In fact, nobody needs to know that it is doing things on a blockchain. Just tap your phone on the thingy. Earn stuff. And move on.

  So I think it’s a really good example of where we’re headed in this space. The underlying technologies are going to recede into the background and all that we’ll see are useful products and services.

  2023.04.11

• /imagine prompt: A silver Land Rover Defender driving through a snowstorm in the mountains of Utah

  

  

  Like everyone else, I have started playing around with Midjourney to create AI-generated images. Here are two that I created last night using the prompt: “A silver Land Rover Defender driving through a snowstorm in the mountains of Utah.”

  Now, you can tell that these are AI-produced images, but it’s still wildly impressive that something like this can be easily generated in a matter of a few seconds. And that’s the thing about AI: it’s easier to get, especially compared to crypto. It’s immediately useful and it’s immediately clear what this can and will disrupt.

  Levis, for example, just announced that it will start using AI-generated photography in lieu of actual fashion photoshoots. This is obviously suboptimal for photographers, models, makeup artists, and so on, but a hell of a lot easier for Levis. I would also imagine that the same thing will happen to real estate renderings and many other things beyond just imagery.

  Ben Myers and Steven Cameron recently speculated on their podcast — Toronto Under Construction — that AI could be used for reviewing development applications. Imagine how much this would speed up reviews and the delivery of new housing! So there are very good reasons for why the hype cycle has moved over to AI from crypto and NFTs.

  it is very important that crypto exists in a world of AI

  — 6529 (@punk6529) March 24, 2023

  However, I’d like to go on the record saying that my gut tells me that this will only make what crypto offers even more important. Permissionless public databases (as opposed to databases controlled by individuals/companies) and the ability to demonstrate authenticity/ownership, feel like two important things to me in a world where computers are constantly generating a flood of new content and nobody knows what is “real” anymore.

  It’s certainly a lot less tangible than, “hey, check out this badass Defender driving through the snow.” But I feel strongly that these two innovations will end up working together.

  2023.03.29

• 3D-printed homes for under $99,000

  ICON, the 3D-printing home company that I wrote about a few months ago, has just launched a new global architecture competition called Initiative 99. As the name starts to suggest, the goal is to generate new ideas for “accessible, beautiful, and dignified 3D-printed homes that can be built for under US$99,000.”

  The competition is open to all: architects, designers, builders, students, and/or people who are just interested in finding new ways to deliver affordable housing. However, the current website does ask for a zip code. So maybe you need to live in the US.

  In any event, if you’re selected, you might get money and you might get to see your design built. The total prize fund for the competition is US$1 million and ICON has also committed to building a selection of the winning designs. Registration begins May 23, 2023, but if you’d like to enter your zip code now and “stay informed,” you can do that here.

  2023.03.16

• The first vacation rental REIT

  This is a fascinating interview with John Andrew Entwistle, the founder of vacation rental company Wander. The way to understand Wander is that it is a vertically integrated travel company. So unlike Airbnb, for example, Wander owns all of their real estate (vacation homes in top destinations), they property manage, they asset manage, and they are building out the technology required to connect all of this stuff.

  They have also created what they are calling the first ever vacation rental REIT, which means that you can buy a piece of their real estate portfolio (currently 13 properties). In addition to being a source of cash, this creates an interesting flywheel effect where maybe you stay in a Wander and then decide to become an investor in their REIT, or vice versa.

  Eventually though, Wander hopes to be just as asset light as Airbnb (which again, doesn’t own any real estate; they’re a booking platform). The idea is that REIT unit holders will ultimately own the real estate and they will be the asset manager / technology platform that sits on top. But that they will still control the entire travel experience.

  John also gets into some of the specifics of how they run their business. For example, in each destination, they hire local cleaning crews and handy people (who are not Wander employees). They typically spend about 7% of the value of a property to furnish it (which is typically around $80-150k per property right now). And their average order size is around $4.5k, which suggests that people are willing to pay a premium for this vertically integrated travel experience.

  If you can’t see the video above, click here.

  2023.03.04

• Segways, scooters, and AI-powered electric shoes

  The original Segway launched in 2000 and was supposed to revolutionize micro-mobility and the “last-mile problem” associated with getting around cities. Instead, only about 140,000 units were sold in the following two decades and, in 2020, the company stopped production on the namesake vehicle. In hindsight this seems kind of obvious. Segways are/were clunky and expensive. There’s a learning curve. And it’s infinitely difficult to look even remotely cool while riding one.

  But one thing they did get right was the problem. There was in fact a need for micro-mobility solutions, which is why we have seen bike share and e-scooter ridership grow, like this, since the late 2000’s. I think it remains to be seen just how ubiquitous things like e-scooters will become in our cities. But in 2021, there were 900,000 electric scooters sold in France alone. So we’re already doing much better than the Segway did during its lifetime.

  As I have said before, I am a big fan of electric scooters. And I wish that Toronto would stop being so conservative with allowing them in the city. But I remain open to other ideas, so here’s another last-mile solution to consider: $1,400 AI-powered electric shoes. Casey Neistat recently reviewed them in New York City and, I can safely say, that they look Segway-like in terms of their clunkiness and overall attractiveness. They’re still in the prototype phase and they do make you walk about 250% faster; but I’m not yet convinced.

  How about you?

  2023.02.25

• Why construction productivity lags other sectors of the economy

  Construction is an essential sector of the economy, responsible for building and maintaining the physical infrastructure that underpins our society. However, it’s no secret that construction productivity lags behind other sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing and information technology. So why is this the case?

  One of the main reasons for the productivity gap is the unique nature of the construction industry. Unlike other sectors, construction projects are often one-off, bespoke endeavors, making it challenging to achieve the economies of scale that are typical of manufacturing or technology. Each project requires a different set of skills, tools, and materials, which can be costly and time-consuming to source and manage. This leads to a lack of standardization and efficiency, which can hinder productivity.

  Another factor that contributes to low productivity in construction is the reliance on manual labor. Despite the increasing use of technology and automation, much of the work in construction still relies on physical labor, which is subject to human limitations and the potential for errors. This can result in delays, rework, and additional costs, all of which impact productivity.

  Moreover, the construction industry faces challenges in terms of supply chain management and workforce development. The industry relies heavily on a complex network of suppliers, subcontractors, and laborers, all of whom must be coordinated and managed effectively. This can be difficult, particularly in light of the current labor shortage and skills gap in the industry.

  To address these challenges, the construction industry needs to embrace innovation and new technologies to improve efficiency, standardize processes, and reduce waste. There is also a need to invest in workforce development and training to upskill the existing workforce and attract new talent to the industry.

  In conclusion, the construction industry faces unique challenges that make it challenging to achieve the productivity gains that are typical of other sectors. However, with the right investments in technology, training, and process improvement, the industry can overcome these challenges and continue to build the infrastructure that our society relies on.

  ---

  Maybe you didn’t notice. But if the above doesn’t sound like me and my writing, it’s because today’s blog post is brought to you by ChatGPT (AI). The prompt I used was, “write a short blog post about why construction productivity lags other sectors of the economy.”

  On some level, it’s unsettling that AI can now, almost instantaneously, spit out a blog post like this. It would now be pretty easy to set up a daily blog, like this one here, and use ChatGPT to populate it each day.

  But of course, while that might be interesting initially, it would quickly become a banal baseline. Anyone and everyone could copy what you’re doing. AI is going to change a lot. But our jobs remain the same: find new ways to create value and be remarkable.

  2023.02.18

• How affordable is a Nabr home?

  We have been speaking about Nabr and the productization of housing for the last year (and, more broadly, about prefabricated housing for probably as long as this blog has existed). And now it is possible to go on to Nabr’s website and reserve a new home in their San Jose project. Here’s what that looks like:

  

  What is immediately clear is that this is an obvious improvement over the way that new homes are typically purchased. The pricing is transparent. You can easily see the floor plan and features of each home. And if you’d like to reserve one, you can go ahead and do that right away for $1,000:

  

  You can also specify whether or not you’re interested in Nabr’s lease-to-purchase program (known as LEAP). More information on that can be found, over here.

  But the exciting question remains whether thinking about and executing on this new housing as a product, rather than as an individual project, will ultimately bring greater cost efficiencies and savings. In other words: can it make housing more affordable?

  Today, the base pricing for SoFA One looks something like this:

  • Home 1002: $1,415,000, ~1080 sf (excluding exterior space), $1,310 psf
  • Home 1003: $2,144,000, ~1547 sf (excluding exterior space), $1,386 psf
  • Home 1108: $938,000, ~795 sf (excluding exterior space), $1,180 psf

  These are just the first 3 homes that showed up for me when I opened the website. And while I’m not intimately familiar with the San Jose housing market, Realtor tells me that the median sold price is $1.2 million and that the median list price per square foot is about $766.

  Though not really an apples-to-apples comparison, this suggests to me that the above pricing may not be as affordable as some people were hoping for. However, it is more or less where I figured pricing would need to be in order to make a high-rise project like this pencil.

  Does this change over time with more product scale? I think it could.

  2023.02.16

• Tesla to open (a portion of) its charging network to all EVs

  The current electric vehicle plan in the US is to build a national network of 500,000 chargers and have EVs make up at least 50% of new car sales by 2030. (Here’s where we are today with adoption.) To this end, a big announcement was made today that included lots of public funding, a Made-in-America agenda, and lots of other goodies. But perhaps the two most important points are that (1) Tesla has, for the first time, agreed to open a portion of its charging network to non-Tesla EVs (so that it can gain access to the new $7.5 billion EV charging initiative) and (2) there is a requirement for all of the station connectors to use the “combined charging system” (CCS). I’m not a connector expert but, in my mind, this is both exciting and directionally right. To fully transition to electric vehicles, we need universality.

  2023.02.15