When you build a new office building, the typical strategy is to pre-lease a certain portion of it. That is, you sign leases with a tenant or a few tenants so that you know for sure that X% of the building will be occupied upon completion. It’s a way to manage risk. If you don’t do this, then you are said to be building the office building “on spec.”
When you build a new condo building, the typical strategy is to pre-sell a certain portion of it. That is, you sell suites to purchasers based on plan drawings, certain finishes, and a model suite intended to illustrate what that future suite will more or less look like. And the reason this is typical is because most construction lenders will require you to do that.
So when you see office buildings and condo buildings going up, there are usually already tenants and residents who plan to move in or investors who plan to rent out their suite and have generally transferred that risk away from the developer.
Because really the only time that a purchaser or investor wouldn’t close on a condo suite (and walk away from their deposit) is when the market corrects so badly that it actually makes financial sense to do that. That happened in the U.S. in 2008-2009 in a number of markets.
But by contrast, when you’re building a rental apartment building you don’t have anything to pre-sell and your tenants (unlike office tenants) aren’t going to sign leases with you for some space that will be ready in 3 years. If you’re lucky, they might sign a lease with you for an apartment that will be ready in 3 months. This means that by default you are also building “on spec”.
Now rental apartments are often considered to be the safest real estate asset class and the least correlated with the macroeconomy. But as a developer and city builder, this dynamic is still something to keep in mind.
Today I spent the day at the 11th Annual Land & Development Conference here in Toronto. I found it particularly good this year, but it’s now late, I’m tired, and I want to go watch game 6 of the NBA finals. So I think this is going to be a fairly short post.
Here’s a summary of some of my key takeaways from the day (a lot of it is Toronto-centric):
Increasingly, the commercial and residential sides of the real estate development business are converging. And it’s being largely driven by the focus on urban intensification and mixed-use.
This is leading to an “institutionalization” of the residential side, which has historically been the domain of smaller private/local companies and rich families.
Merger is creating complexity around asset valuations: Is it about the income (cap rates) and/or the future development potential?
Low rise house prices in Toronto continue to skyrocket. Supply is highly constrained. This has been the story for a number of years now.
High rise condo prices in Toronto continue to be more or less flat (modest increase). The industry is going to need to figure out how to work with and compliment the current surge in rental apartment development. There is an element of competition between the two asset classes.
According the RealNet’s new home price index, the spread between low-rise and high-rise housing in the Greater Toronto Area widened to $326,659 as of this past April (2015).
Rental Apartment Case Studies: Motion on Bay by Concert Properties (Bay and Dundas) was underwrote at $2.60-2.80 psf rents back in 2009. Rents are now in the $3 range. The Heathview by Morguard (Bathurst & St Clair) had $2.80-2.90 psf rents in its pro forma. It achieved and beat these numbers.
There’s a flood of Asian money coming into (1) Vancouver and then into (2) Toronto looking for development projects. There appears to be a lot of impatient and/or dumb capital out there. Challenge remains finding good development sites.
Vancouver is well ahead of Toronto in terms of transit oriented development. The initial intent in Ontario was to create a link between the greenbelt that surrounds Toronto + land use (intensification) + transit. But we haven’t been doing a good job of building transit and developing around it. This ties in nicely with a post I wrote called: The case for planning transit around minimum population densities.
I will end by saying that I found there to be greater transparency at today’s conference. There was a lot of talk about deal specifics and I don’t remember seeing this much detail at past conferences.
Maybe I just wasn’t paying attention closely enough before or maybe the industry is slowly becoming more transparent. I hope it’s the latter.
If you were there today and I missed something groundbreaking, please share it in the comments below!
Condos in Fog by Richard Gottardo on 500px
Earlier today I attended a lunch and learn talking about the renewed interest in rental apartment development here in Toronto. Since this is a topic I’ve written about a few times here on Architect This City, I thought I would summarize some of my key takeaways from the panel discussion:
Market fundamentals are strong for purpose-built rental apartments. Vacancy is very low and demand will likely outstrip supply for many decades to come given the barriers to building (land availability, planning/approvals, and so on).
As of September 2014, CMHC reported 2,212 purpose-built rental units under construction in the Toronto region. And yet the annual demand for new rental housing is likely somewhere between 10,000 to 30,000 units (clearly some of this demand is being absorbed by condo rentals – the secondary rental market).
Millennials and retirees are seen as core markets for new rental apartments. Millennials want to live in urban centers and they like the flexibility that renting provides. Retirees want to know that they won’t be asked to move out because the owner wants to sell their condo unit.
It’s almost impossible to compete against condo developers when it comes to buying land (despite the next point). They (condo developers) will pay more. Therefore intensifying our “tower in a park” building stock is going to be a critical component of meeting rental demand in the region.
Part of what’s driving this interest in purpose-built rental (on the part of developers) is a softening condo market. So don’t be surprised when some developers flip back to condos when it makes financial sense to do so.
It was interesting to hear this last point. It’s something that has been on my mind, but for whatever reason wasn’t really being talked about by the industry. That’s not to say that I think the condo market is in trouble though. It has just become more balanced. And ultimately that’s probably a good thing.
Either way, I think that more rental and more housing options are a positive for the city and for consumers.