According to the Financial Times, Cape Town's population (metropolitan area) grew by 27.6% from 2011 to 2022, landing at approximately 4.77 million. Last year it was estimated at 4.97 million. At the same time, residential property prices increased by about 160% during the period from 2010 to 2024, outpacing all other cities in South Africa. Last year the average price of a home increased by 8.5% in Cape Town versus the national average of 4.5%. And as is the case in most desirable cities around the world, this has some people worried.

But who and what is to blame?

Is it because of tourism? It is estimated that there are some 25,800 active short-term rental listings in the city. Is it digital nomads? South Africa recently launched a Digital Nomad Visa program allowing foreign nationals to live and work in the country provided they can demonstrate an annual income of at least 650,976 ZAR (US$37,500). However, this is a recent thing. Is it foreigners coming with US dollars, euros, and/or pounds? Or is it because of internal migration, which South Africans refer to as "semigration?"

As always, it's a debate. But I think the outcome we are seeing makes intuitive sense for at least three reasons. One, Cape Town is an objectively beautiful and amenity-rich city sandwiched between mountains and the ocean. See above cover photo. It also has a warm and temperate climate. The average high in January (their summer) is 29 degrees and the average high in July (their winter) is 19 degrees. This is a huge competitive advantage — albeit a natural one.

Two, it's a relatively safe place. The above FT article quotes a transplant from Johannesburg saying, "You can't ride your bike in Joburg unless you are in a walled-off estate." If you have the means, that's a strong motivator to move somewhere else. And it's understandably easy to assign a lot of value to safety and security. "Sure, this home may be more expensive, but I can walk to places and ride my bike without fear." That's something worth spending money on.

Lastly, we are all becoming less tethered to specific locations. Digital nomadism and remote work are here to stay. But I don't think this means that people are going to just decentralize and move to the middle of nowhere. I think it means that people are going to increasingly vote with their feet and choose exactly where they want to live their life. What this means is that the need to create better places is only going to become more important. Because more than ever, every place is now in a global competition for talent and investment dollars.

Cover photo by Tobias Reich on Unsplash

In my opinion, digital nomadism is a growing trend for at least two reasons: 1) people like traveling (it's more fun than sitting in an office cubicle) and 2) technology keeps making it easier to work in a decentralized way.

This is not a new phenomenon, but it's a growing one. In 2020, it was estimated that there were ~11 million so-called digital nomads in the world. This year it's somewhere around 40 million people. And it's hard to imagine this trend reversing.

Let's consider what's happening on the technology side. This week at Google I/O, the company announced a lot of AI-powered tech in the hopes of not becoming extinct as a result of it. And one of these things was a new 3D video communication platform called Google Beam.

Two things are really neat about this tool. One, it uses some AI volumetric video model to make the person in front of you appear in full 3D. So it's closer to real life. And two, it does real-time language translations. Here's a video of it in action:

In watching this, my mind immediately went to "this is going to make it even easier for people to work from Bogotá." It also collapses the world. Now we can all speak to each other regardless of language.

Imagine, for example, being able to participate in a community meeting for a new development project in Bogotá. You could be at home speaking in English and the community could be yelling at you in Spanish. That's powerful.

There's also speculation that Apple will be adding real-time translations to its AirPods later this year. Meaning, you won't need to hide behind layers of screens and technologies. You'll be able to get yelled at in person!

All of these innovations are only going to make it easier for people to live and work fluidly around the world. And I strongly believe that an increasing number of people will take advantage of it. But now the hard part: What does this mean for cities, real estate, and everything else?

Cover photo by Random Institute on Unsplash

One way to describe cities is to call them labor markets. Historically, people have chosen to live in cities because they have provided economic opportunities (among, of course, many other things). That's why the data is very clear: wages are higher in larger cities.

But what we have also seen over the last few years -- and what is causing a lot of dislocation in real estate markets -- is an untethering of work. More people are working from home and from locations that offer greater lifestyle benefits (or greater tax benefits).

We spoke recently about what this divide between in-person and remote work might mean, but regardless of this outcome, I think there's an important truth here: Lots of people would like to live somewhere else. (In my case, my daydreams take me to Paris.)

And for the first time ever, really, it is possible for more people to do this and stay connected to work somewhere else. Earlier innovations, such as the streetcar or car, also compressed geographies and empowered people to travel greater distances. But now the catchment area has seemingly expanded to the world.

I'm not saying anything particularly novel here, but I do think it's important to point out that this desire exists in many of us. Because this tension between "I do work here" but "I really want to live over there" seems like it's only increasing.

According to the Financial Times, Cape Town's population (metropolitan area) grew by 27.6% from 2011 to 2022, landing at approximately 4.77 million. Last year it was estimated at 4.97 million. At the same time, residential property prices increased by about 160% during the period from 2010 to 2024, outpacing all other cities in South Africa. Last year the average price of a home increased by 8.5% in Cape Town versus the national average of 4.5%. And as is the case in most desirable cities around the world, this has some people worried.

But who and what is to blame?

Is it because of tourism? It is estimated that there are some 25,800 active short-term rental listings in the city. Is it digital nomads? South Africa recently launched a Digital Nomad Visa program allowing foreign nationals to live and work in the country provided they can demonstrate an annual income of at least 650,976 ZAR (US$37,500). However, this is a recent thing. Is it foreigners coming with US dollars, euros, and/or pounds? Or is it because of internal migration, which South Africans refer to as "semigration?"

As always, it's a debate. But I think the outcome we are seeing makes intuitive sense for at least three reasons. One, Cape Town is an objectively beautiful and amenity-rich city sandwiched between mountains and the ocean. See above cover photo. It also has a warm and temperate climate. The average high in January (their summer) is 29 degrees and the average high in July (their winter) is 19 degrees. This is a huge competitive advantage — albeit a natural one.

Two, it's a relatively safe place. The above FT article quotes a transplant from Johannesburg saying, "You can't ride your bike in Joburg unless you are in a walled-off estate." If you have the means, that's a strong motivator to move somewhere else. And it's understandably easy to assign a lot of value to safety and security. "Sure, this home may be more expensive, but I can walk to places and ride my bike without fear." That's something worth spending money on.

Lastly, we are all becoming less tethered to specific locations. Digital nomadism and remote work are here to stay. But I don't think this means that people are going to just decentralize and move to the middle of nowhere. I think it means that people are going to increasingly vote with their feet and choose exactly where they want to live their life. What this means is that the need to create better places is only going to become more important. Because more than ever, every place is now in a global competition for talent and investment dollars.

Cover photo by Tobias Reich on Unsplash

In my opinion, digital nomadism is a growing trend for at least two reasons: 1) people like traveling (it's more fun than sitting in an office cubicle) and 2) technology keeps making it easier to work in a decentralized way.

This is not a new phenomenon, but it's a growing one. In 2020, it was estimated that there were ~11 million so-called digital nomads in the world. This year it's somewhere around 40 million people. And it's hard to imagine this trend reversing.

Let's consider what's happening on the technology side. This week at Google I/O, the company announced a lot of AI-powered tech in the hopes of not becoming extinct as a result of it. And one of these things was a new 3D video communication platform called Google Beam.

Two things are really neat about this tool. One, it uses some AI volumetric video model to make the person in front of you appear in full 3D. So it's closer to real life. And two, it does real-time language translations. Here's a video of it in action:

In watching this, my mind immediately went to "this is going to make it even easier for people to work from Bogotá." It also collapses the world. Now we can all speak to each other regardless of language.

Imagine, for example, being able to participate in a community meeting for a new development project in Bogotá. You could be at home speaking in English and the community could be yelling at you in Spanish. That's powerful.

There's also speculation that Apple will be adding real-time translations to its AirPods later this year. Meaning, you won't need to hide behind layers of screens and technologies. You'll be able to get yelled at in person!

All of these innovations are only going to make it easier for people to live and work fluidly around the world. And I strongly believe that an increasing number of people will take advantage of it. But now the hard part: What does this mean for cities, real estate, and everything else?

Cover photo by Random Institute on Unsplash

One way to describe cities is to call them labor markets. Historically, people have chosen to live in cities because they have provided economic opportunities (among, of course, many other things). That's why the data is very clear: wages are higher in larger cities.

But what we have also seen over the last few years -- and what is causing a lot of dislocation in real estate markets -- is an untethering of work. More people are working from home and from locations that offer greater lifestyle benefits (or greater tax benefits).

We spoke recently about what this divide between in-person and remote work might mean, but regardless of this outcome, I think there's an important truth here: Lots of people would like to live somewhere else. (In my case, my daydreams take me to Paris.)

And for the first time ever, really, it is possible for more people to do this and stay connected to work somewhere else. Earlier innovations, such as the streetcar or car, also compressed geographies and empowered people to travel greater distances. But now the catchment area has seemingly expanded to the world.

I'm not saying anything particularly novel here, but I do think it's important to point out that this desire exists in many of us. Because this tension between "I do work here" but "I really want to live over there" seems like it's only increasing.