According to the Financial Times, Cape Town's population (metropolitan area) grew by 27.6% from 2011 to 2022, landing at approximately 4.77 million. Last year it was estimated at 4.97 million. At the same time, residential property prices increased by about 160% during the period from 2010 to 2024, outpacing all other cities in South Africa. Last year the average price of a home increased by 8.5% in Cape Town versus the national average of 4.5%. And as is the case in most desirable cities around the world, this has some people worried.
But who and what is to blame?
Is it because of tourism? It is estimated that there are some 25,800 active short-term rental listings in the city. Is it digital nomads? South Africa recently launched a Digital Nomad Visa program allowing foreign nationals to live and work in the country provided they can demonstrate an annual income of at least 650,976 ZAR (US$37,500). However, this is a recent thing. Is it foreigners coming with US dollars, euros, and/or pounds? Or is it because of internal migration, which South Africans refer to as "semigration?"
As always, it's a debate. But I think the outcome we are seeing makes intuitive sense for at least three reasons. One, Cape Town is an objectively beautiful and amenity-rich city sandwiched between mountains and the ocean. See above cover photo. It also has a warm and temperate climate. The average high in January (their summer) is 29 degrees and the average high in July (their winter) is 19 degrees. This is a huge competitive advantage — albeit a natural one.
Two, it's a relatively safe place. The above FT article quotes a transplant from Johannesburg saying, "You can't ride your bike in Joburg unless you are in a walled-off estate." If you have the means, that's a strong motivator to move somewhere else. And it's understandably easy to assign a lot of value to safety and security. "Sure, this home may be more expensive, but I can walk to places and ride my bike without fear." That's something worth spending money on.
Lastly, we are all becoming less tethered to specific locations. Digital nomadism and remote work are here to stay. But I don't think this means that people are going to just decentralize and move to the middle of nowhere. I think it means that people are going to increasingly vote with their feet and choose exactly where they want to live their life. What this means is that the need to create better places is only going to become more important. Because more than ever, every place is now in a global competition for talent and investment dollars.
Cover photo by Tobias Reich on Unsplash
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I am a South African Canadian, born in Cape Town, but living in The Junction for 25 years now. It is one of the most beautiful cities in the world. I have been following your blog for 6 or more years and when I see the fabulous places you and Neat B travel, I want to shout: "Go to Cape Town! You will love it there". It is safe and well managed compared to the rest of the country. Let me know if you need info on what to see, where to stay or dine in Cape Town.
thanks for reading! it's definitely on the list!
What makes Capetown relatively safe compared to the rest of South Africa? Is the whole city walled off from a country that is descending into chaos? Crime is portable; in Canada, historically safe neighbourhoods see crime spikes after a new Light Rapid Transit line begins operation (ask me how I know). Getting back to South Africa, I would like to know why copper theft and increasingly deadly interpersonal violence isn’t a factor in the lives of Capetown residents.