Urbanation just released its Q1-2025 condominium market survey results for the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA). Here's how things are looking:
The entire GTHA recorded 533 new condominium sales and the City of Toronto recorded 215 new condominium sales in the quarter. Once again, and as you can see above, this is the lowest level since the early 90s.
For all intents and purposes, I think you can look at these sales figures as mostly representing a zero. The numbers are relatively small and a sale doesn't necessarily equate 1:1 to an eventual new home. The sale needs to be within a project that achieves its requisite pre-sales for construction financing.
Since the beginning of 2024, Urbanation has tracked a total of 5,734 pre-construction condominiums that have been put on hold, cancelled, placed into receivership, or converted to purpose-built rental.
So where does this leave us? It leaves us with:
69,042 condominium homes under construction across the GTHA
10,934 unsold condominiums in pre-construction projects
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects (standing inventory)
One hypothetical could be that many/most of the projects currently in pre-construction never actually make it to construction, which would mean that the above 10,934 condominiums just disappear from the market. For argument's sake, let's assume this happens. That would leave projects under construction and standing inventory.
Of the condominium's currently under construction, 11,073 are unsold, which represents about 16% of the total. For the units that have sold, some will belong to end users, some will belong to investors who have an ability to close, and the rest will be buyers who, frankly, don't want to close or who can't close.
I don't know what this latter percentage might be, but let's say that 40% of the condominiums sold and under construction become a problem and need to be "reabsorbed" in the market. That is, they need to find new buyers. That would equal 23,187 condominiums (and hopefully I'm being very conservative). In this scenario we would have:
11,073 unsold condominiums in projects under construction
23,187 condominiums that become a problem and need to reabsorbed in the market
1,911 unsold condominiums in completed projects
Total of 36,171 "unsold" condominiums
So, how long will it take to absorb these new homes? I don't know. It depends on a bunch of factors, including immigration. But I think we need at least 2 more years just to physically deliver the homes that are currently under construction. Then there may be a period of reabsorption. That continues to suggest to me that 2028 could be the year where we're on the other side of this.
Cover photo by Brian Jones on Unsplash
We just received a bunch of photos back of our Junction House Sales Gallery. So today is photo day on the blog. (Thank you Dialogue 38 for coordinating these.)
Here's the front "gallery" area. The artwork hanging on the wall is by local artist, Leeay Aikawa. Her work is terrific. You can see this space as you walk along Dundas Street West.
Here is the model suite pavilion and main reception area (evening shot). The bar area is absurdly long. It was designed to accommodate beers from Indie Ale House down the street.
Dialogue 38, the designers of the space, really wanted the model suite to be a "pavilion" -- something akin to Mies van der Rohe's Barcelona Pavilion. So here's the ramp that takes you up and inside.
Finally, here's the model suite. The kitchen is by Scavolini. And the backsplash is a penny tile.
The sales gallery is located at 2720 Dundas Street West and is now open every day of the week except Tuesdays. The hours are 1PM to 7PM during the week and 12PM to 5PM on the weekends.
The Government of Ontario is currently working on a Housing Supply Action Plan that they hope will address “the barriers getting in the way of new ownership and rental housing.”
Through initial consultations, they have already identified 5 key themes (my words below):
The approvals/entitlement process for new housing is too slow
There are too many restrictions on what is allowed to be built (that is, we should be encouraging more “gentle density” and “missing middle” type infill)
Development costs are too high
Tenants need protection; regulation is making it increasingly difficult to be a small landlord
Overall housing innovation
The province is also looking for public input and is currently running this online survey. It is open until January 25, 2019. And I would encourage all of you to complete it and help shape the action plan.
My understanding is that the plan should be ready by Q2-2019.