Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Brandon Donnelly
Daily insights for city builders. Published since 2013 by Toronto-based real estate developer Brandon Donnelly.
Broadly speaking, cities tend to have better data on vehicular traffic than on pedestrian and bicycle traffic. This is because road design has traditionally prioritized the movement of cars, above all else. So it has felt right to bias traffic counts. But there are lots of places where pedestrians and cyclists greatly outnumber vehicles.
For example, I was on Queens Quay yesterday visiting my mom and, if you've ever been to Toronto's waterfront in the summer, you'll know that it has one of the busiest bike lanes/trails in the city — if not the busiest. But if you ask ChatGPT just how busy it is, it will more or less say, "I don't know. Really busy?" And that's because we don't have real-time usage data. We have estimates. And the same is true of pedestrian counts.
(If you're aware of a great dataset, please share it in the comment section below.)
But this is starting to change with the advent of AI traffic monitoring solutions that can handle multi-modal environments. Meaning they're capable of counting everything from pedestrians and scooters to cyclists and trucks. This is what cities need to make better decisions. And as this new tech becomes more widespread, I think it's going to show us just how much we've been missing.
Cover photo by Joshua Chua on Unsplash
Okay, so we know that Paris has transformed itself from a car city into a biking city. Between 2015-2020 the City doubled its number of bike lanes. Then in 2021, it announced that it wanted to become a "100% cycling city" and further add to its bike network. Today, it has one of the busiest bike routes in the world and more people cycle than drive. The Globe and Mail reported, here, that last year 11.2% of trips in Paris proper were made by bike, compared to only 4.3% by car. "You would not be wrong to call it a war on the car," Marcus Gee writes. However, the result was a "victory for the city."
At the same time, we know how people will respond to this data. Lots of people will read this article and immediately say, "yeah, but that's Paris, where the average highs and lows in January are 8 and 3 degrees, respectively. It simply won't work in Toronto where our January highs and lows average 0 and -7 degrees. We have snow to contend with; they don't." And of course, they wouldn't be entirely wrong in this argument. Cycling does tend to decline in the winter months in most cities. (Note: The months of April to November in Toronto are just as warm or warmer than Paris in the winter.)
But just for fun, let's look at Oulu, Finland which has been called the "winter cycling capital of the world." Oulu has a population of around 210,000 people, an extremely low population density of approximately 150 people per km2, and January temperatures that average between -7 and -15 degrees.
The other day I was speaking to a Korean friend of mine and he was telling me about Seoul's new GTX-A commuter railway line. This line opened at the end of 2024 and is part of a broader Great Train eXpress initiative that includes 3 lines (A, B, and C) and that is intended to establish a new "30-minute commute zone" surrounding Seoul. A is the first line to open. C is scheduled for completion in 2030. And already, three more lines are now being planned: D, E, and F.
What this first line has accomplished is pretty extraordinary. GTX-A connects Paju in the north to Seoul in the south. Paju sits at the northern border of South Korea (and therefore houses many US and South Korean Army bases) and has a population of over half a million people. Prior to GTX-A opening, this commute used to take approximately 90 minutes by conventional subway and up to 90 minutes by car, depending on traffic.
Today it takes exactly 22 minutes! If you're interested in seeing a complete walking video of this commute, click here.
The GTX system is a higher-speed railway line. Meaning, the trains are designed to operate up to a maximum speed of 180 km/h. Average speeds vary depending on the segment and stop spacing, but it seems to operate at an average speed of
Broadly speaking, cities tend to have better data on vehicular traffic than on pedestrian and bicycle traffic. This is because road design has traditionally prioritized the movement of cars, above all else. So it has felt right to bias traffic counts. But there are lots of places where pedestrians and cyclists greatly outnumber vehicles.
For example, I was on Queens Quay yesterday visiting my mom and, if you've ever been to Toronto's waterfront in the summer, you'll know that it has one of the busiest bike lanes/trails in the city — if not the busiest. But if you ask ChatGPT just how busy it is, it will more or less say, "I don't know. Really busy?" And that's because we don't have real-time usage data. We have estimates. And the same is true of pedestrian counts.
(If you're aware of a great dataset, please share it in the comment section below.)
But this is starting to change with the advent of AI traffic monitoring solutions that can handle multi-modal environments. Meaning they're capable of counting everything from pedestrians and scooters to cyclists and trucks. This is what cities need to make better decisions. And as this new tech becomes more widespread, I think it's going to show us just how much we've been missing.
Cover photo by Joshua Chua on Unsplash
Okay, so we know that Paris has transformed itself from a car city into a biking city. Between 2015-2020 the City doubled its number of bike lanes. Then in 2021, it announced that it wanted to become a "100% cycling city" and further add to its bike network. Today, it has one of the busiest bike routes in the world and more people cycle than drive. The Globe and Mail reported, here, that last year 11.2% of trips in Paris proper were made by bike, compared to only 4.3% by car. "You would not be wrong to call it a war on the car," Marcus Gee writes. However, the result was a "victory for the city."
At the same time, we know how people will respond to this data. Lots of people will read this article and immediately say, "yeah, but that's Paris, where the average highs and lows in January are 8 and 3 degrees, respectively. It simply won't work in Toronto where our January highs and lows average 0 and -7 degrees. We have snow to contend with; they don't." And of course, they wouldn't be entirely wrong in this argument. Cycling does tend to decline in the winter months in most cities. (Note: The months of April to November in Toronto are just as warm or warmer than Paris in the winter.)
But just for fun, let's look at Oulu, Finland which has been called the "winter cycling capital of the world." Oulu has a population of around 210,000 people, an extremely low population density of approximately 150 people per km2, and January temperatures that average between -7 and -15 degrees.
The other day I was speaking to a Korean friend of mine and he was telling me about Seoul's new GTX-A commuter railway line. This line opened at the end of 2024 and is part of a broader Great Train eXpress initiative that includes 3 lines (A, B, and C) and that is intended to establish a new "30-minute commute zone" surrounding Seoul. A is the first line to open. C is scheduled for completion in 2030. And already, three more lines are now being planned: D, E, and F.
What this first line has accomplished is pretty extraordinary. GTX-A connects Paju in the north to Seoul in the south. Paju sits at the northern border of South Korea (and therefore houses many US and South Korean Army bases) and has a population of over half a million people. Prior to GTX-A opening, this commute used to take approximately 90 minutes by conventional subway and up to 90 minutes by car, depending on traffic.
Today it takes exactly 22 minutes! If you're interested in seeing a complete walking video of this commute, click here.
The GTX system is a higher-speed railway line. Meaning, the trains are designed to operate up to a maximum speed of 180 km/h. Average speeds vary depending on the segment and stop spacing, but it seems to operate at an average speed of
Here's a video comparing winter vs. summer cycling in Oulu.
I'll be the first to admit that I don't generally cycle in January and February. Partially because it's cold and partially because I don't want road salts all over my business. But the correct framing isn't that it's not possible in a city like Toronto; it's that I'm too soft. That, and we need to invest in the right infrastructure if we want more people to do it.
What this also means is that, as new GTX lines continue to come online, the geography of the Seoul urban region will continue to get redrawn. Suburban regions that were previously far out, are now going to get "pulled in" and function as more integral parts of a contiguous city. This improved access should also alleviate housing pressures by effectively opening up more supply.
I mean, 22 minutes is nothing. It can take longer than this to travel 3 blocks on a Toronto streetcar during rush hour. GTX is a prime example of the magic of rail and what's possible once you accept that highways (and tunnels underneath them) aren't going to be what efficiently move the most number of people around a big global city.
Cover photo by Ethan Brooke on Unsplash
Here's a video comparing winter vs. summer cycling in Oulu.
I'll be the first to admit that I don't generally cycle in January and February. Partially because it's cold and partially because I don't want road salts all over my business. But the correct framing isn't that it's not possible in a city like Toronto; it's that I'm too soft. That, and we need to invest in the right infrastructure if we want more people to do it.
What this also means is that, as new GTX lines continue to come online, the geography of the Seoul urban region will continue to get redrawn. Suburban regions that were previously far out, are now going to get "pulled in" and function as more integral parts of a contiguous city. This improved access should also alleviate housing pressures by effectively opening up more supply.
I mean, 22 minutes is nothing. It can take longer than this to travel 3 blocks on a Toronto streetcar during rush hour. GTX is a prime example of the magic of rail and what's possible once you accept that highways (and tunnels underneath them) aren't going to be what efficiently move the most number of people around a big global city.
Cover photo by Ethan Brooke on Unsplash
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