I have been through two major downturns in my real estate career. The first was the 2007-2008 financial crisis. And the second is what's happening right now. Right before the first one, I was working for a small real estate developer/consultancy in Dublin and, let me tell you, it was an exuberant time. Ireland was at what ended up being the tale end of its "Celtic Tiger" and everything was possible.
One of the projects I was working on was the proposed U2 Tower at the mouth of the River Liffey in the Docklands area. We were running the international design competition to select an architect and everyone from Foster and Partners to Zaha Hadid was participating. It was going to be the tallest tower on the island of Ireland and in the penthouse was going to be a recording studio for the rock band U2.
But then, the great financial crisis happened and the tower got cancelled. By then, I had returned from the US (where I was finishing grad school) to work in Toronto. The writing was starting to be on the wall, but I managed to get a summer internship for a developer. By fall, shit had hit the fan and they reneged on my full-time offer, citing that the market was just too bad.
In reality, though, things were much worse in the US. I vividly remember developers claiming that it would take decades for development to return to feasibility. That's how bad things felt. In hindsight, this was pivotal timing for me for two reasons. One, it taught me early on in my career just how bad things can get in real estate, and I try to always remember that. And two, it forced me out of the US after graduation.
I had initially planned to stay and work there for a few years, but there were simply no real estate jobs and, if there was one, they weren't going to hire a Canadian with a background in architecture. Who knows where I would have ended up had I stayed. Despite it being my plan, it's possible I may have never returned to Toronto.
During this period, I remember thinking to myself that development is super risky, it shuts off periodically, and so it's a good idea to also own long-term assets with long-term leases, like office buildings. And after returning to Toronto, I ultimately went to work for a company that did both development and that owned office buildings, among other commercial assets.
This seemed like a reasonable approach up until 2020, which is of course when office buildings were negatively impacted by the pandemic. But I don't know how anyone could have predicted this. It was truly a black swan event that had far reaching implications on real estate beyond just office assets.
But here's the thing: I feel lucky with the timing I've had. These are the best times to be starting something. During the first cycle, I was just starting my real estate career and it taught me things. And now, during this current downturn, I'm focused on growing Globizen. It's hard to imagine a better time to find opportunities that the rest of the market may be overlooking or simply can't execute on.
I've been having more coffee meetings over the last few weeks. And one of the things they are doing -- besides making me jittery -- is reminding me that at least two things happen during bear markets:
Conviction gets tested.
People get really creative.
Let's start with number one. It's easy to have conviction in something when it's obviously working and lots of other people are doing it. But what about when that is no longer the case?
Take the example of Amazon. In this 2018 post by Fred Wilson, he reminds us that at the peak of the internet bubble in 1999, Amazing was trading at around $90 per share. Two years later it was somewhere around $6 per share. And it was not until 2007 that Amazon would start trading above its peak again.
In hindsight, holding on was very obviously the right thing to do. But to do that from 1999 to 2007, you would have needed patience. And to have patience, you would have needed a high degree of conviction in Amazon as a company and in the internet as the harbinger of an important societal shift. That wouldn't have been easy -- just like many things today are not easy.
At the same time, bear markets force people to get really creative -- we're now onto thing number two. In this case, it's not a question of patience. It's, "the thing I was doing before no longer works and I don't know if/when it will work again, so I'm going to get creative and try something new." Bear markets give you this wonderful opportunity because the opportunity cost of not doing the status quo disappears (or greatly reduces).
On some level, though, these are two contradictory things: are we sticking to our guns or are we trying something new? But in my mind, you want both. This is not about saying, "lots of people used to want to buy cryptocurrencies and condominiums, but now a lot of people don't, so I'm going to move onto the next hot thing." It's something more calculated than this.
To return to Amazon, I think it's akin to Jeff Bezos' old mantra that you want to be stubborn on vision, but flexible on the details. Right now, lots of people are being forced to be flexible. But the vision part is what you still need conviction around. Otherwise, how will you get to where you want to go?
When the market is hot, it becomes more difficult to buy real estate. You end up with more buyers than sellers. And because of this, there's a natural tendency to look further afield for opportunities. You don't want to overpay for the obvious assets, and so you start to pioneer.
This can work out just fine, particularly if the market remains strong. But oftentimes, when the market does turn, it is the peripheral stuff that gets hit the hardest. There is a flight to quality and pioneering gets quickly viewed as too risky.
Here in Toronto, I am consistently being told that there are peripheral development sites that have seen their value drop to 20-25 cents on the dollar compared to the peak, and that's if you can actually find a buyer. In many cases, the sites are now unsellable.
This, to me, is our periodic reminder that while it's important to search for overlooked opportunities and buy cheap, you can't forget to also buy quality.