This is an interesting working paper by a team of researchers at NYU’s Marron Institute of Urban Management. The paper examines the relationship between urban density and organized violence, first in Colombia and then within a sample of 200 global cities.
The finding is that organized violence actually increases the population density of the surrounding areas within a city because it creates a kind of “invisible wall” – effectively a no-go zone.
This makes perfect intuitive sense, but it’s not something I ever considered. Geography and other natural constraints typically drive density. Think about the island of Manhattan. But so too can invisible walls.
For the full working paper, click here.
Photo by Joel Duncan on Unsplash
The NY Times reported this week that, as the ultra luxury real estate market in New York City continues to cool, developers appear to be making two kinds of product adjustments: (1) they are converting the penthouses and rooftops of their buildings from premium residential space into amenity spaces for the broader building and (2) they are shrinking unit sizes to help with overall sales and leasing velocity.
According to the New York Times, condo prices on Billionaires’ Row in midtown are down 20-40% since the peak of the market in 2014 when this record was set. So developers are responding with more studios and 1 bedrooms, and amenity spaces – many of which now include high end restaurants also open to the public – that ensure no other building has something you don’t have.
However, there are naturally some differences between condo and rental buildings. Since 2016, 35% of rentals projects in the city have had some sort of penthouse amenity, whereas the number is only 13% for condo buildings. This makes sense given that amenities are such a big driver of leasing. You definitely want your amenities ready for when your leasing office opens.
What product changes, if any, are you seeing in your market right now?
Photo by Aaron Burson on Unsplash
Fred Wilson published a good post last weekend on the proposed bill that went to New York City Council this week regarding new reporting requirements for Airbnb and their hosts in NYC. You can read more about his position on his blog, but he is in favor of a comprehensive bill that would properly legitimize short-term rentals. He is also not opposed to city and state taxes on the service.
What I wanted to focus on today were his comments around housing. This is already sounding like a broken record, but Fred draws attention to the severe supply-demand imbalance that is occurring in the boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, precisely because many/most young people were priced out of Manhattan long ago and want to live in these places.
But I particularly like his comments around what makes for good policy and what makes for good politics. I agree with his view that it is often a case of the latter over the former. I think a lot of the excitement around Airbnb is a red herring. For me, it’s akin to the fixation on foreign buyers and their impact on the local housing market in places like Toronto and Vancouver.
Yes, they are factors. But the data suggests they are marginal ones. As Fred points out, they are almost certainly not the root cause of the problem. The reality is that we need a lot more housing – both market-rate housing and subsidized housing. The challenge is that nobody wants to pay for the latter and so we’ve instead decided to focus on things that sound like they’re going to help.