Amazon was founded in 1994 and went public in 1997. By 1999, some 5 years after the company was started, only about 1% of total retail sales were being done online in the US. So you have to give it to Bezos, he saw what was coming and he got in early to help create it. This was not so obvious back in the mid 90s. The internet as a whole was still being viewed with skepticism, especially after the dot-com bubble.
Today, online shopping represents over 15% of total retail sales. (See above chart from Charlie Bilello.) The pandemic pop is over, but it looks like we've returned to a pretty clear trendline -- up and to the right. I guess the questions now are: When and where does this start to flatline? It doesn't seem likely that this goes to 100% in the foreseeable future, especially if you include grocery. But it's going to go a lot higher.
For myself, if I were to exclude food/grocery, I would say that the vast majority (80-90%) of my retail purchases are done online. Even if I'm in a physical store, I'll often pull out my phone to price compare. If it's cheaper on Amazon, I'll just order it there.
Here's another example.
This past summer when I was in Park City, I discovered the brand Vuori. I had heard of them before, but I had never actually seen or touched their clothes. It's great stuff. But instead of the store convincing me to buy something, it convinced me that I like the brand and that I should probably shop on their website at some point in the near future. And that's exactly what I ended up doing. (Sorry Lululemon. You're still my favorite.)
All of this is perhaps obvious in a world where 15% of total retail sales are happening online. But I would imagine that the retail landscape and our cities will look very different when this number goes even higher. Our cities were different at 1% compared to today at 15%; so imagine what 50% or 80% might be like.
I recently asked this on Twitter:
You live in an apartment/condominium. If you could pick one ideal use/tenant for the ground floor of your building, what would it be?
And a number of people responded.
But I suppose I should also answer my own question.
I lean more towards utility. My ideal use -- assuming an urban storefront -- is not a fancy restaurant or a super cool coffee shop. It would be some sort of quality bodega that:
Sells essential grocery needs (milk, eggs, toilet paper, etc.)
Sells wine & beer
Has a deli/food counter where you can buy a breakfast bagel, a sandwich for lunch, or a quick dinner when you're in a pinch
And, yes, has pretty good coffee
It would also need to be open early and late: 7am to 12am, please.
What would you want?
Swiss supermarket chain, Migros, has just launched what is being called the first store in Switzerland to not have any employees. The concept, called the Voi Cube, is a small container-like outparcel space that is open 24/7 and offers about 500 or so everyday items. You enter using their app, you grab what you need, and then you check yourself out. (Presumably the doors don't open back up until you've paid.)
The concept is being positioned as a convenience add-on to its existing grocery store business. Swiss federal labor laws still prohibit retail staff from working on Sundays, and so this is a clever way for people to shop for essentials during that time. They just got rid of the labor component. It also begins to show just how flexible and adaptable grocery stores can be as the retail landscape continues to evolve.