One of the reasons why I'm interested in the autonomous vehicle space is that I know our built environment is sticky. And because we've designed so much of it around the car, it's hard to imagine this dependance going away anytime soon.

In fact, there's a very real possibility that autonomy leads to further decentralization. That is typically what happens when we make it easier and cheaper for people to travel longer distances. They sprawl. So we ought to start preparing ourselves for the positive and negative externalities.

I'm not a deep expert on autonomous vehicles, but as an interested observer, Waymo appears ahead of Tesla in delivering this future. Waymo has been offering fully driverless rides since 2020 and Tesla is still at L2 autonomy, which means a driver needs to be present in the vehicle.

I hear from lots of people that their Full Self Driving (FSD) software is pretty good, but according to some studies, it can require human intervention as often as every 13 miles. This doesn't necessarily mean that Tesla won't be first to "solve autonomy," but their Cybercab isn't here yet.

If you're interested in this topic, here is an article by Timothy Lee summarizing a discussion that he recently had with the co-CEO of Waymo, Dmitri Dolgov. Some of it is a little technical, but it does offer a comparison between Tesla and Waymo.

That is, how their approaches differ and what the future might look like.

I like the way that Scott Galloway describes entrepreneurship in this recent post about why he's bearish on Tesla:

Entrepreneur is a synonym for salesperson, and salesperson is the pedestrian term for storyteller. Pro tip: No startup makes sense. We (entrepreneurs) are all impostors who must deploy a fiction (a story) that captures the imagination and attracts capital to pull the future forward and turn rhyme into reason. No business I have started, at the moment of inception, made any sense … until it did. Or didn’t. The only way to predict the future is to make it.

He then goes on to describe the difference between an entrepreneur and a liar:

This is not the same as lying. There’s a real distinction between an entrepreneur and a liar: Entrepreneurs believe their story will come true, as they are laser-focused on making it true. A liar, well, they know they’re misleading people with false data. Usually for money (i.e., fraud). This is where Tesla turns gray.

Scott continues to say things about Elon and Tesla. But that's not the point of today's post.

The point I would like to make is that real estate development is an inherently entrepreneurial endeavor. You need to be a salesperson and a compelling storyteller, because that's the only way you'll be able to create the future. And creating the future is what developers do.

I watched Tesla's We, Robot event last night. As many of you know, Elon and his team showcased a Cybercab, Robovan, and a humanoid robot that dances funny, all of which will be available in the market for purchase at some unknowable date in the future. What was obvious is that Elon himself has no clear idea of when this will be.

What I will say, though, is that the designs look cool. The Cybercab looks like a Porsche and a Cybertruck had a love child, and the Robovan looks like an Art Deco rendition of what the future is supposed to be like. I first wondered why they'd create a robotaxi with only two seats. But thinking about it now, most Uber rides probably only have 1-2 passengers.

Despite these pretty designs, the overwhelming reaction to the event seems to be one of disappointment. We've heard what was said before. Public transportation is bad (I disagree). Autonomy will free up your time and remove unnecessary parking spaces from our cities (allowing for more public space). And soon you'll be able to put your under-utilized car to work and earn extra cash.

Cool, but when?

Waymo and Uber are not, as far as I know, hosting similarly flashy events. But as far as I can tell, they're making meaningful progress in advancing toward full autonomy. As of June of this year, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And in September, they announced a partnership that would bring AVs to Austin and Atlanta by way of the Uber app.

At this point in the hype cycle, I don't think anyone is interested in hearing promises about what the future of autonomy will be like, especially without any firm dates. They want to know: Are we there yet? So I think it's no surprise that people, including investors, weren't all that pumped up by the event.

On a more important note, Tesla had bicycles with brightly illuminated wheels circulating around their event set (at Warner Bros.) to presumably demonstrate that their Cybercabs can successfully navigate around moving objects (when brightly illuminated). If you missed them, look at the 29 second mark in the below video:

I can't be the only one who thought: "What are those? Now, that's what I want!" So I've asked Elon when they'll be available and when I can buy one. I'll keep you all posted on his response.