I first wrote about Bird, the electric scooter company, back in March 2018. At the time, they had just raised $115 million and their pitch was that they were going to solve the last-mile mobility problem. This is a real problem, and so lots of urbanist-type people, including myself, were excited. I then rode my first shared scooter in 2019 in Lisbon, and I had a ton of fun. I wrote: "Now I know what all the fuss is about."
But it wasn't all puppy dogs and ice cream. People started getting annoyed by the clutter that dockless scooters were creating in our cities (see above photo). Safety also became a great concern, and so they started getting viewed as a nuisance. Toronto never allowed them (despite my insistent blog posts) and Paris -- which had arguably become the scooter capital of the world -- banned them in early 2023.
Now there's this: Bird announced this week that it has filed for bankruptcy. The once unicorn, which had its stock halted back in September because its market cap fell below $15 million for too long, needs cash. According to FT, they have about $3.25 million the bank, but they have an immediate need for $16.8 million to meet some "financial obligations" in January.
This is maybe not unexpected. But I think the important question is: Is this an existential moment for micro-mobility and shared scooters (i.e. this is a fundamentally bad business), or is it more of a case that money used to be mostly kind of free, and now it's not? Either way, I think there's no question that the latter is going to cause further distress throughout 2024.
But the question remains: Can shared scooters be a sustainable business?
My day job is not to be a scooter analyst. But I do think that a number of things are true:
Riders seem to really like using electric scooters and so top-line demand continues to grow.
There are many headwinds for this business ranging from winter usage to politics.
Barring regulation, there appears to be low barriers to entry.
Lime has already claimed to be the first micromobility company to post a full profitable year.
These first and last points are important ones. I believe it's always going to be easier to get people onto electric scooters and bikes than onto regular bikes; people will generally always choose what is easiest. At the same time, here is a company that has allegedly figured out how to offer this service profitably. Assuming these two things remain true, I think we'll continue to find scooters in our cities.
Photo by Gemma Evans on Unsplash
So Sunday came and went and Parisians voted overwhelmingly to ban shared electric scooters in the capital. Of those who voted, 89.03% were against them. And this, to be honest, is not all that surprising. Also not surprising is the low voter turnout (7.46% of 1.3 million registered voters).
But I do think it raises important questions about this "democratic" process -- and not just because I happen to like electric scooters. One problem is that there's an inherent bias. And this same phenomenon can be found in community meetings for new developments.
If you're upset about something (and you have the time), then you are probably more intrinsically motivated to participate. In other words, if you think that electric scooters are a horrible nuisance, then you're more likely to take the time to say something about them. But if you think electric scooters are just, like, fine, then you're probably less motivated to go out and vote.
Maybe this doesn't matter. Maybe the turnout percentage itself is the answer you're looking for. Only 7.46% of registered voters cared enough about electric scooters to voice an opinion. So if the rest actually liked them, it's their problem for not voting.
But if you think that this percentage should be higher to be more representative, then one solution is to try and reduce the barriers to participation. And I think there's an argument to be made that something as dumb as a Twitter poll, open only to Parisians, might have been more inclusive.
This Sunday, Paris will be hosting an important referendum that has nothing to do with France's retirement age. The question is whether shared electric scooters should be banned citywide. And while there are concerns about whether this single-question referendum will draw many people out to vote, the city has said that, whatever the outcome, the results will be binding.
To be clear, this would only apply to the three micromobility rental companies that operate in the capital: Lime, Dott, and Tier. It would not apply to privately-owned scooters, of which there are many. In fact, France might just be one of the scooter capitals of the world. Over 900,000 scooters were purchased across France in 2021, and last year the number was about 759,000.
Mayor Anne Hidalgo has publicly said that she thinks these scooters should be banned. But does that really solve things given the number of private scooters in circulation? And are the current problems truly ones we can't solve? As I have said many times before, I like scooters. I like them a lot. They're convenient and fun to ride, and I see their value in helping to solve the last-mile problem.
I also can't help but think back to the early 1900s when cars were just starting to infiltrate our cities and there were absolutely no traffic regulations to think of. It was chaos, it was dangerous, and I'm sure it was similarly divisive at the time. So should we have banned them and stuck with horses? Hmm. Maybe.